MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

Effects of scale economies and production seasonality on optimal hub locations: the case of regional fresh produce aggregation

Interest in supporting local and regional food systems is rising and food hubs have attracted considerable attention among Federal, State, and local policymakers. This study explores the problem of endogenous hub location in fresh produce value chains in the Northeastern United States. To overcome limitations in the literature, we incorporate the effects of economies of scale and production seasonality into our models. Three experimental models are designed to examine the effects of alternatively applying yearly, quarterly, and monthly data on model solutions. We explicitly assess how interactions of scale economies and seasonality influence the structure and spatial attributes of an optimal regional produce aggregation hub system. The three models generate marketed different solutions and in many respects they lead to different conclusions about developing local/regional supply chains. The monthly model allows for production seasonality and actual hub operation cycle frequency and thus leads to more efficient hub solution with rich policy implications.     

Sensory Aspects of Retailing: Theoretical and Practical Implications

Sensory elements are an important aspect of both offline and online retail stores and can non-consciously influence consumer judgments and purchase behavior. In offline settings, ambient factors like scent, lighting, and music have been shown to influence customers’ shopping experiences and their buying behaviors. For online retail outlets, sensory factors related to color, display patterns, and layouts can have significant effects on consumer behavior. Sensory elements have strong managerial relevance since they can non-consciously influence behaviors and because they are relatively easy to change; for example, it requires minimal effort to change the lighting or the music at a physical retail store or the display pattern for an online store. The eight papers in this special issue address theoretical and practical issues related to how different sensory elements can strongly influence retail practices. These papers focus on underexplored topic areas and also on emerging technologies, which stimulate thoughts for further research in these areas.     

智慧居家养老服务协同供给的优化路径研究——以广西钦州市智慧居家养老项目的实践经验为例

智慧居家养老服务的协同供给可以形成社会联动效应，降低公共服务成本。运用公共服务协同供给分析框架，通过交叉分类方法从协同主体的利益与目标两个变量的耦合性出发分析广西钦州市智慧居家养老项目中养老服务主体间不同种类的协同关系，可以从加强政府领导、形成合作联盟、建立市场标准、创新扶持政策4个方面完善政府、企业、社会组织之间不同类型的协同供给，实现社会资源的高效利用以及向智慧居家养老服务的发展和转变。     

Examining artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in marketing via a global lens: Current trends and future research opportunities

Artificial intelligence (AI) has captured substantial interest from a wide array of marketing scholars in recent years. Our research contributes to this emerging domain by examining AI technologies in marketing via a global lens. Specifically, our lens focuses on three levels of analysis: country, company, and consumer. Our country-level analysis emphasizes the heterogeneity in economic inequality across countries due to the considerable economic resources necessary for AI adoption. Our company-level analysis focuses on glocalization because while the hardware that underlies these technologies may be global in nature, their application necessitates adaptation to local cultures. Our consumer-level analysis examines consumer ethics and privacy concerns, as AI technologies often collect, store and process a cornucopia of personal data across our globe. Through the prism of these three lenses, we focus on two important dimensions of AI technologies in marketing: (1) human–machine interaction and (2) automated analysis of text, audio, images, and video. We then explore the interaction between these two key dimensions of AI across our three-part global lens to develop a set of research questions for future marketing scholarship in this increasingly important domain.     

欧盟视阈下在线平台中个人数据的增值税处理

近年来,在线平台的迅猛发展推动了全球经济数字化加速转型,但同时也引发了包括增值税政策适用在内的诸多挑战.通过研究《欧盟增值税指令》和欧州法院的判例法,以及分析个人数据与在线平台运行之间的关系可以推断出,个人数据是在线平台提供访问服务构成的增值税应税范围内的供应,且与消费者是否向在线平台支付金钱形式的对价无关.在实践中,使用客观价值方法来确定在线服务供应的应税金额存在实际困难,而使用直接联系标准解决易货交易问题,会导致增值税税基在本质上得到扩张.因此,建议当前不要将在线平台访问服务的供应视为一项应税交易.此外,对于商家为获得消费者数据而向平台付款的情形,因其不符合直接联系标准,也不应被视为服务对价.     

阿莫西林克拉维酸钾片含量测定方法的改进

为解决实际应用中克拉维酸钾峰与后相邻杂质的分离度达不到要求的问题,建立了一种同时测定阿莫西林克拉维酸钾片中阿莫西林和克拉维酸钾含量的新方法,采用反相高效液相色谱法(RP-HPLC),Ultimate AQ-C_(18)色谱柱(4.6mm×250 mm,5μm),以pH值为4.4的0.05 mol/L磷酸二氢钠缓冲液为流动相,柱温为35℃,流速为1.0mL/min,检测波长为220nm。结果表明:阿莫西林和克拉维酸钾两主峰与相邻杂质得到完全基线分离,分离度大于1.5;克拉维酸钾对照品溶液质量浓度为0.050 0~0.500 1mg/mL时与峰面积的线性关系良好(r=0.999 8),平均回收率(n=9)为100.14%,RSD值为0.24%;阿莫西林对照品溶液质量浓度为0.100 0~1.000 1mg/mL时与峰面积的线性关系良好(r=0.999 9),平均回收率(n=9)为100.45%,RSD值为0.17%。与原有的《中华人民共和国药典》方法相比,新的阿莫西林克拉维酸钾片含量测定方法专属性好,准确度高,操作简便快捷,结果可靠,可作为一种质量控制方法。     

A Statistical Model to Investigate the Reproducibility Rate Based on Replication Experiments

The reproducibility crisis, that is, the fact that many scientific results are difficult to replicate, pointing to their unreliability or falsehood, is a hot topic in the recent scientific literature, and statistical methodologies, testing procedures and p‐values, in particular, are at the centre of the debate. Assessment of the extent of the problem–the reproducibility rate or the false discovery rate–and the role of contributing factors are still an open problem. Replication experiments, that is, systematic replications of existing results, may offer relevant information on these issues. We propose a statistical model to deal with such information, in particular to estimate the reproducibility rate and the effect of some study characteristics on its reliability. We analyse data from a recent replication experiment in psychology finding a reproducibility rate broadly coherent with other assessments from the same experiment. Our results also confirm the expected role of some contributing factor (unexpectedness of the result and room for bias) while they suggest that the similarity between original study and the replica is not so relevant, thus mitigating some criticism directed to replication experiments.     

创新战略下的英国研发组织创新——Catapults的组织管理模式研究

Catapults（弹射中心）作为一种新型研发组织形式，在英国创新发展战略的实施中扮演着重要角色。精准的组织功能定位、高效的组织管理运作模式和紧密的网络化组织关系，是Catapults组织管理模式创新的重要三大重要内容。为我国新型研发机构的培育和发展提供了良好的参考样本。     

The Impact of Public Expenditure and International Trade on Agricultural Productivity in China

The “industry nurturing agriculture” reforms and World Trade Organization accession led to dramatic growth in public expenditure and international trade in China’s agricultural sector. This article aims to estimate the effects of public expenditure and trade on agricultural productivity in China for 2004–2015. A semi-parametric production function with shape constraints is introduced to derive more accurate productivity before the productivity determinants are analyzed with an emphasis on public expenditure and trade. The empirical result shows that public expenditure and exports can effectively improve agricultural productivity, while imports have no significant effects. Policy implications are discussed in the context of supply-side reforms.