时空大数据支持的土地储备智能决策体系与应用研究

研究目的:设计土地储备智能决策体系,将土地储备决策环节进行科学化、定量化和模型化,为政府合理开展土地储备提供决策依据。研究方法:遵循科学性、实用性、先进性、开放性原则,以数据为驱动,人工智能为核心,通过基于Hadoop/Spark的大数据处理技术、多源异构数据融合技术、智能决策模型集对多源时空大数据挖掘分析。研究结果:提出了土地储备智能决策体系,研究了一套面向土地储备的决策方法集,实现对现状条件的精准刻画,对土地储备规模、结构、时序等内容的科学决策;在此基础上,研发了智能决策支持平台,将数据资源共享、现状条件评估、智能决策专题等功能集成,构建土地储备智能决策"一张图",并实现平台的自我学习和更新。研究结论:应用于宁波市实例验证,该体系有效地促进了土地储备科学智慧决策,对优化土地资源配置具有参考意义。     

Decision-making in incomplete markets with ambiguity—a case study of a gas field acquisition

We apply utility indifference pricing to solve a contingent claim problem, valuing a connected pair of gas fields where the underlying process is not standard Geometric Brownian Motion and the assumption of complete markets is not fulfilled. First, empirical data are often characterized by time-varying volatility and fat tails; therefore, we use Gaussian generalized autoregressive score (GAS) and GARCH models, extending them to Student’s t-GARCH and t-GAS. Second, an important risk (reservoir size) is not hedgeable. As a result, markets are incomplete which makes preference free pricing impossible and thus standard option pricing methodology inapplicable. Therefore, we parametrize the investor’s risk preference and use utility indifference pricing techniques. We use Least Squares Monte Carlo simulations as a dimension reduction technique in solving the resulting stochastic dynamic programming problems. Moreover, an investor often only has an approximate idea of the true probabilistic model underlying variables, making model ambiguity a relevant problem. We show empirically how model ambiguity affects project values, and importantly, how option values change as model ambiguity gets resolved in later phases of the projects. We show that traditional valuation approaches will consistently underestimate the value of project flexibility and in general lead to overly conservative investment decisions in the presence of time-dependent stochastic structures.     

Understanding the factors affecting the adoption of the Internet of Things

The Internet of Things (IoTs) is widely considered as one of the most important infrastructures for promoting economic development and technological innovation. The purpose of this study is to find the key factors influencing IoT adoptions, specifically in Taiwan’s logistics industry. In this study adopts a model which is a hybrid of technology, organisation and environment (TOE) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory method (DEMATEL) to evaluate the complex factors influencing the adoption of IoT. The study employs the TOE framework as a basis to develop a general evaluation framework, and the DEMATEL technique conceptualises a structural model and then identifies the causal relationships among factors through a cause-effect relationship diagram. Finally, we also divided the complex influencing factors into cause and effect groups to better clarify the causal relationships for decision-making, to ensure the efficiency of IoT adoption.     

The role of travel agents’ ethical concerns when brokering information in the marketing and sale of sustainable tourism

ABSTRACT

Using conservation tourism as a test case, this study explores the role high-end travel agents play in selling sustainable tourism. It examines a niche marketing activity in that process. The study focuses on agents’ consideration of ethics as they act as information brokers between tourists and operators. Data were collected from interviews with agents and analysed using a deductive content analysis based on six overarching concepts and theories on ethical decision-making. The findings emphasize the implicit influence within conservation tourism of tourism's ethical dimensions, whilst identifying many constraints that prevent a full consideration and/or disclosure of ethical concerns in the sales process. Most importantly, agents made assumptions using a false consensus bias about clients' preferences for service over concerns for the environment, and were not prepared to discuss the more sensitive issues surrounding conservation with their clients. A number of recommendations are proposed regarding the need to unpack conservation information, overcome the false consensus bias, and agents’ reluctance to discuss ethics in the sales process. Finally, the findings have broader implications for the development of sustainable tourism, which ultimately will depend on a dialogue of ethical concerns and values within the tourism supply chain between suppliers, brokers and tourists.     

Me,myself and I: The role of CEO narcissism in internationalization decisions

Internationalization decisions represent major objects of international business research; in this context, the respective role of decision-makers, i.e., strategic actors has been under study for now nearly 50 years. However, some important individual characteristics of strategic actors, which seem to influence individual decision-making in a significant way, have been – in contrast to general management research – widely disregarded. Among those characteristics, narcissism plays a decisive role. Trying to provide a first attempt to fill this research gap our paper aims at theorizing on as well as empirically analyzing potential relationships between narcissistic tendencies of CEOs and their internationalization decisions. The empirical study of major German manufacturing firms over the period 2004–2013 shows that CEOs with a high degree of narcissism tend to intensify business activities abroad in general while the expected effect on intensified activities in markets with a high psychic distance cannot be identified. These research results help to better understand the drivers of firms’ internationalization, stress the importance of recognizing managerial decision-making in the context of analyzing business activities abroad, and improve the prediction of CEOs’ decision-making behavior in general.     

Professor Reva Berman Brown (1939–2007) – A Tribute

The purpose of this study is twofold: (1) to determine if an ethics presentation at an Italian university can change students' perceptions of ethics; and (2) to compare the results of this study with previously published results from US students. The ethics presentation, previously developed by Smith, Smith and Mulig (2005) Journal of Business Ethics, 61(2), pp. 153–164, for accounting and business classes, made available on the Internet, was adapted and used in classes in Italy. As in the USA, Italy has faced significant financial scandals and corporate failures in recent years. Both Italian and US penal laws have been changed to prevent future financial frauds, but there are limits to what laws can accomplish. The ethics presentation described in this Teaching Note was an effort to encourage students to consider the importance of ethics. The impact of the presentation on Italian students' perspectives is described. In addition, a comparison is made of the impact of the presentation in Italy and in the USA, which shows that students in both countries regard ethics as a very important topic.     

基于主客观组合群决策的权重区间确定方法

提出了一种确定权重区间的方法,即将由多位专家确定的主观权重和用多种方法计算的客观权重相结合,形成权重区间,通过分析主客观权重区间的重合关系,计算权重区间的置信度和精确度,据此对权重区间进行循环优化。最后用算例表明了该方法的科学性和可操作性。     

我国财政专项转移支付决策过程分析--以多源流分析为视角

财政转移支付是1994年实行分税制以来平衡中央-地方以及区域间财力不均的制度，我国专项转移支付又始终占据着财政转移支付的重大比重。专项转移支付在确定资金转移地区，资金转移项目以及每个专项拨款多少的标准是如何确定的？这些都取决于专项转移支付的决策过程。文章通过多源流分析视角来探析我国财政专项转移支付的决策过程中存在的问题，了解我国财政专项转移支付的决策过程。     

企业国际化经营的市场进入方式选择

随着世界经济一体化进程的加快和我国成功地加入世贸组织,企业越来越普遍地从事国际化经营活动。正确选择市场进入方式是企业国际化经营成败的关键。本文着重分析了影响进入方式选择的主要因素,并基于这一领域的交易成本理论、组织行为理论、折衷理论等尝试构建了一个企业国际化经营的进入方式综合决策模型,以期对我国企业实施“走出去”战略提供有益的借鉴。     

区域城市节水决策的探讨

分析了目前水资源短缺的现实,呼吁坚持科学发展观、观测可持续发展的道路,主张节约开发利用水资源,分析了节约水资源的重要性,研究了节约用水的步骤和方法,提出了城市区域节约用水的战略方针、政策和一些宝贵的措施经验。最后,呼吁人们节约用水,提倡人水和谐,主张建立节水型社会和节水型城市,以利区域城市的长期稳定可持续的发展。