团队生产的纳什均衡及合作博弈空间

本文在霍姆斯特姆所做贡献的基础上认为团队生产问题在本质上等同于囚徒困境问题,并指出霍姆斯特姆的实施强制契约的解决方法存在逻辑漏洞,在现实社会中一般是无效的.本文依据社会经济人个人效用最大化的条件定义了团队生产的合作战略博弈空间,合作战略博弈空间的均衡极点(即个人效用最大化点)就是团队生产收益分配博弈的纳什均衡解.如果个人收益的总和等于集体收益的最优值,那么个人理性与集体理性之间就达到统一,处于帕累托最优状态,即不存在道德风险;反之,则说明存在道德风险.并给出了在团队生产中通过改变合作战略博弈空间达到帕累托最优的一个特例,指出了科学合理地改变合作战略博弈空间在社会经济发展中的重要作用     

中学思想政治教育存在的问题与归因分析

思想政治教育积极引导中学生的积极的、健康的、向上的品格,对于实现德育目标,充分发挥德育的功能起着重要作用。但在思想政治教育发展过程中仍存在一些问题,分析问题的成因并积极应对问题,对于中学思想政治教育有着重要意义。     

新农合道德风险与逆选择及其规避研究

道德风险和逆选择并不是医疗保险中特有的现象,它们在任何商业保险和社会保险中都存在,但在医疗保险中更为严重。在新农合中,由于农民有自愿投保的选择权而保险机构却没有拒保权,面对的又是处于艰难生存环境的农村卫生机构,其道德风险和逆选择现象要严重得多,如果不能处理好新农合中道德风险和逆选择问题,将可能导致新农合的市场萎缩与效率的下降。本文就是在研究新农合中逆选择与道德风险生成机理的基础上,提出一些规避措施,为新农合的长期可持续发展奠定微观制度基础。     

Moral hazard,debt overhang and capital structure

This paper investigates the impact of managerial moral hazard on the debt overhang of a firm by constructing a contingent claims model in which the manager faces costly effort. Using a calibrated capital structure model, we show that the costs of debt overhang become more serious in the presence of managerial moral hazard. Such costs even account for more than half of the total agency costs at a high level of cash flow. Moreover, in contrast to the results of Hackbarth and Mauer (2012), our model predicts a U-shaped relationship between the leverage ratio and investment opportunities of a firm, which is caused by managers’ moral hazard. Finally, by considering this moral hazard, we also show the coexistence of low leverage ratios and high credit spreads, which explains the phenomenon of “low debt levels and high credit spreads” observed in practice.     

Bank distress prediction: Empirical evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

In this paper we apply a simple hazard model to develop an early warning system of bank distress in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Specifically, we identify a set of leading indicators of bank distress that are used subsequently to predict the probability of bank failure in these countries. The investigation covers a wide set of bank level variables and other variables including the influence of bank management, competition, diversification, ownership and regulation. Similar to the previous empirical evidence, we found that good management lowers the likelihood of distress. Moreover, competition and diversification were found to be bad for the health of banks. This result is consistent with some empirical evidence on diversification; however, it contradicts the bulk of literature on competition, which suggests a negative influence on the probability of distress. The ownership structure and the capital requirement index were uninformative. Similar to the previous literature, the institutional development index was statistically relevant predictor. The bank specific and other CAMEL type variables as well as the systematic shocks in the financial and macroeconomic environment were all found to be in line with the findings of related empirical studies. Finally, we find that by conditioning on the relevant covariates, a simple hazard model has performed fairly well in predicting bank distress in the GCC countries.     

新时代大学生知行合一问题研究

我国已从高速增长阶段进入高质量发展阶段,新通信技术、新媒体、互联网的迅速发展,不同价值理念传播速度前所未有,对大学生的冲击力度巨大,一定程度上造成大学生认知上的模糊和混乱。大学生知行不一的问题应当引起高等院校管理部门及师生的高度重视。大学生知行不一主要表现在两个方面:一是思想认识上的模糊和错误;二是行为表现距离社会规范的要求差距比较大。造成大学生知行不一的原因有三:一是道德认知本身存在众多分歧和争议;二是道德选择与现实利益之间的冲突和矛盾;三是情感在道德选择中的作用。要不断完善促进大学生知行合一的基本路径:一是落实思想政治理论课“立德树人”的目标;二是创新教学方式方法;三是改革和完善教学科研管理制度;四是加强校园文化能力建设。     

信贷配给及信息甄别博弈理论的文献分析及评述

自从Stiglitz＆Weiss和Jaffee＆Russell这两篇经典文献从信息不对称角度解释信贷配给现象之后,涌现出众多的理论文献对信贷市场的信贷配给现象和信息甄别问题进行了研究。现有的信贷市场基本理论研究在以下几方面取得成果：一是信贷配给的信息不对称成因;二是抵押物可以成为银行的风险分类工具：三是贷款额度可以成为银行的风险分类工具。同时其理论研究框架在银行类型假定、借款人类型假定、以及描述借款人行为的效用函数等方面存在局限性,有待进一步深入研究。     

Valuation of default-sensitive claims under imperfect information

We propose a valuation method for financial assets subject to default risk, where investors cannot observe the state variable triggering the default but observe a correlated price process. The model is sufficiently general to encompass a large class of structural models and can be seen as a generalization of the model of Duffie and Lando (Econometrica 69:633–664, [2001]). In this setting we prove that the default time is totally inaccessible in the market’s filtration and derive the conditional default probabilities and the intensity process. Finally, we provide pricing formulas for default-sensitive claims and illustrate in particular examples the shapes of the credit spreads.      

苗族巴岱信仰的道德教化研究--以墨戎苗寨为例

通过田野调查,选取湘西土家族苗族自治州墨戎苗寨为观察点,采用文献资料法、田野调查法、问卷调查法、跨学科综合研究法等研究方法,从社会公德、职业道德、家庭美德三个方面分别论述巴岱信仰在社会道德教化、家庭美德和职业道德中的具体体现。苗族人的生产生活能够从宗教信仰中找到相应的道德资源并对苗民施以教化,有利于苗族社会稳定和民族团结。     

员工创造力与越轨创新:心理特权和道德推脱视角

既有研究多聚焦于员工创造力对组织创新绩效的正向影响,对其可能产生的负面结果及发生机制探讨较少。基于道德自律和心理特权构建核心理论框架,通过道德推脱（中介效应）、心理特权（调节作用）解释员工创造力影响越轨创新行为的内在机理和边界条件。运用230份个案调查数据进行实证检验,结果显示：员工创造力能够正向预测越轨创新行为;道德推脱在创造力与越轨创新行为间起部分中介作用;心理特权在创造力与道德推脱间起正向调节作用。研究有效揭示了员工越轨创新行为发生机制和约束条件,为工作场所创造型员工管理提供了新的理论视角和实践启示。