Do analysts who understand accounting conservatism exhibit better forecasting performance?

This study investigates the performance of analysts when they match the asymmetric timeliness of their earnings forecast revisions (i.e., asymmetric forecast timeliness) with the asymmetric timeliness of firms’ reported earnings (i.e., asymmetric earnings timeliness). We find that better timeliness‐matching analysts produce more accurate earnings forecasts and elicit stronger market reactions to their forecast revisions. Further, better timeliness‐matching analysts issue less biased earnings forecasts, more profitable stock recommendations and have more favorable career outcomes. Overall, our results indicate that analysts’ ability to incorporate conditional conservatism into their earnings forecasts is an important reflection of analyst expertise and professional success.     

Assessing time-varying stock market integration in Economic and Monetary Union for normal and crisis periods

In this paper, we examine the stock market integration process amongst 17 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries from January 2002 to June 2013 over a normal period as well as for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Eurozone Debt Crisis (EDC) periods. We classify the economies in three groups (A, B and C) based on their GDP to examine whether the economic size influences financial integration. Seven indicators are used for the purpose, namely, beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, asymmetric DCC, dynamic cointegration, market synchronisation measure and common components approach. The results suggest that large-sized EMU economies (termed as Group A) exhibit strong stock market integration. Moderate integration is observed for middle-sized EMU economies with old membership (termed as Group B). Small-sized economies (termed as Group C) economies seemed to be least integrated within the EMU stock market system. The findings further suggest presence of contagion effects as one moves from normal to crisis periods, which are specifically stronger for more integrated economies of Group A. We recommend institutional, regulatory and other policy reforms for Group B and especially Group C to achieve higher level of integration.     

国际油价冲击与中国的经济增长——基于非对称关系视角的分析

本文基于季度数据，引入非对称协整模型，考察国际油价与中国经济增长的动态关系，并鉴于油价波动对不发达经济体可能的冲击，还测度了油价的不确定性并探析其对经济增长的影响，结果表明：（1）从短期来看，国际油价变化是国内经济增长的单向Granger原因，“中国因素”对全球油价变化的影响尚不明显；（2）从长期来看，国际油价和经济增长具有非对称协整关系，油价上涨对经济的影响明显大于油价下跌所产生的效应；（3）国际石油市场存在正反馈交易行为，导致油价波动在油价上涨时表现更加明显。油价不确定性在短期内对经济增长存在负面影响，长期中则不会显著影响经济增长。以上结果意味着必须高度重视石油安全问题，加强油价波动预警与风险管理系统。     

网购市场鱼龙混杂现象的经济学解释：基于二维不对称信息的视角

网络购物市场存在商品鱼龙混杂的典型现象：高价格的商品不一定高质量，低价格的商品也不一定低质量，表现出明显的信息不对称特征。文章基于网络购物市场所存在的两个维度不对称信息的特征事实，即厂商在产品质量与产品生产成本两个方面拥有私有信息，通过构建二维不对称信息的分析框架，从市场均衡的视角首次解释了上述现象的经济机理。分析表明，由于二维不对称信息的存在，消费者和厂商决策的互动过程使得市场上产品价格与质量不再具有单调递增关系，从而网络购物市场可能出现鱼龙混杂的市场均衡，文章证明了这一均衡在合理的条件下是存在的。文章通过比较静态分析考察了市场环境的变化如何影响商品质量的价格信号显示效率以及消费者购买行为，并考察了网络购物行业商家披露信息、消费者对于商家的反馈评分机制和保证退货等手段对于消除商品鱼龙混杂现象的有效性，为进一步规范发展我国网络购物行业提供了参考。     

信息不对称与电子商务的发展

本文认为,信息不对称引致的信用缺失是制约电子商务发展的重要因素,发展我国电子商务除了继续加强基础设施建设外,建立和完善社会信用体系,提高信用度是必不可少的重要方面。文章提出,要建立良好的信息沟通渠道和机制,使信息公众化、公开化;提高企业组织化程度;制定企业信用评价制度:健全法制,约束企业交易行为,提高其信用度;消除信息不对称,促进我国电子商务健康发展。     

Venture Capital Valuation,Partial Adjustment,and Underpricing: Behavioral Bias or Information Production?

Using a sample of venture capital (VC)‐backed initial public offerings (IPOs), we analyze the role played by perceived valuation changes on IPO underpricing. We find that perceived valuation change from the last pre‐IPO VC round to the IPO affects IPO underpricing in a nonlinear way. Further analysis indicates that information‐based theories, not behavioral biases, explain this nonlinearity. We also find that the previously documented partial adjustment effect and its nonlinear impact on IPO underpricing are related to the trajectory of the perceived valuation changes, which stands in stark contrast to prior evidence of the importance of behavioral biases.     

我国蔬菜价格垂直传导的非对称性研究——基于面板VAR模型的实证

运用面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)对我国蔬菜的生产价格、批发价格和零售价格的垂直传导机制进行实证研究,结果表明我国蔬菜三种价格的波动幅度和增长速度自上而下呈依次增强的特征;价格的正向传导顺畅,逆向传导存在一到两期的滞后,传导强度上存在正向传递强度明显高于逆向传递的非对称现象;生产价格在整个价格波动的传导链中占主导地位,蔬菜价格的稳定在很大程度上依赖于蔬菜的生产环节。     

关于风险投资内在机理的经济学分析

从经济学的角度对风险投资进行了内部和外部两个方面的具体分析。根据交易成本理论和信息不对称理论分析了风险投资的特点 ,揭示了风险投资迅速发展的内在机理 ;依据科斯定理和“囚徒困境”模型 ,阐明了政府积极参与的必要性     

品牌,为解决信息不对称而付出的额外成本

品牌本身不会改变商品实体性能。但从信息经济学的角度分析,在信息不对称的现实市场中,品牌作为一种发信号的机制,可以把优质企业和劣质企业区分开,从而对优质企业和消费者都有好处。虽然建立品牌让厂商花费了额外成本,但是只要建立品牌的费用控制在一定范围内,厂商建立的品牌就是一种合理的有利于提高社会福利的行为。