中国公共资金边际成本估量与分析

本文构建了一个可计算一般均衡模型(CCE),用于估量和分析我国的公共资金边际成本(MCF).分析结果表明,我国税收的MCF是比较高的,介于1.208～1.451.这说明,在我国通过税收筹资的公共项目,每单位支出的价值至少要大于1.208,才是有效率的.此外,通过分析还发现,我国的各主要税种之间以及同一税种在不同行业之间的MCF差别较大,表明我国税制还有较大的效率改进空间.     

A CGE analysis of oil price change

As Chinese economy system has been depended more on the import of petroleum with the development of China, the change in the price of international oil have caused concern among economists and policy makers. This paper is to present a financial Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy which integrates real economy and financial sectors, and to apply it to quantitatively evaluate the impacts on Chinese economy caused by international oil price changes. And the model endogenously determines the exchange rate, covering fixed, partially flexible, and completely flexile exchange rate system to consider the effect of foreign oil price changes from the point of view of macro and industrial aspects. Finally, this paper presents concluding remarks.     

人民币实际汇率升值对中国经济各产业的影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)的分析

研究构建了一个可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)以量化估算人民币实际汇率升值对中国经济各部门的影响。根据最新的中国2005年投入产出表编制了中国2005年社会核算矩阵作为CGE模型的基础数据集。研究表明:除服务业、建筑业外,人民币实际汇率升值使大部分产业产出下降,升值的财富效应导致国内购买力增强,服务业、建筑业产出随之增加;升值使农业部门的农业劳动力需求减少,服务业、建筑业的劳动力需求增加,大部分非农行业的劳动力需求也都趋于减少。     

资源税改革中的税率选择:一个资源CGE模型的分析

长期以来,资源税改革一直受到社会各方关注,目前相关研究成果多集中于定性分析,对资源税税率的设置更缺乏定量研究.本文构建资源CGE模型,引入资源账户,通过枚举法对资源税对资源税税率设置的合理范围进行定量分析,研究资源税税率设置的合理区间.研究结果表明:如资源税税率设置合理,可以有效增加资源税税收收入,大幅减少资源消耗,增加社会福利,促进社会经济的可持续发展.     

对外贸易与中国制造业发展：基于可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型的模拟分析

运用CGE模型模拟分析了对外贸易对我国制造业主要行业的产出、收益及投资水平的作用效果。分析结果显示,制造业产出、收益和投资变化率与对外贸易变化率呈正相关;除了金属行业的收益增长率在贸易小幅增长时,其行业的收益率高于贸易的增长率以外,其余行业的贸易的增长率均大于各行业收益增长率,低于投资增长率;而贸易的小幅增长对于纺织业、金属行业、炼焦、煤气和石油加工业的收益水平的提升更有利;贸易的高度增长对于具有增长潜力的机械行业更有利;对于食品制造业、化学行业、非金属矿物制品业来讲贸易的适度增长对行业发展更有利。由此提出在大力发展制造业贸易的同时,要针对各行业对贸易的不同敏感程度,合理的调整产业政策,发挥技术创新能力,以此提升制造业的贸易利得。     

REAL AND DISTRIBUTIVE EFFECTS OF PETROLEUM PRICE LIBERALIZATION: THE CASE OF INDONESIA

The effect of higher petroleum prices on the aggregate price level, real growth, and income distribution is appraised within a multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. A reduction in the government subsidy raises petroleum prices and production costs throughout the economy. Consumer demand, production, and income decline as output prices increase and consumer purchasing power decreases. The model is applied to and calibrated for Indonesia. The simulated results predict a slight increase in the price level and a slight decrease in output. An important result is that urban household groups will be the most significantly affected by the subsidy reduction.     

Levelling the playing field for EU biomass usage

The threats of climate change, food security, resource depletion and energy security are driving society towards a sustainable low-carbon future. Within this paradigm, biomass plays an invaluable role in meeting the food, feed, energy and material needs of future generations. Current EU thinking advocates biomass for high-value materials, which is not aligned with EU public policy support for ‘lower value’ bioenergy applications. ‘High-technology’ and ‘no bioenergy mandate’ pathways explore market conditions that generate a more equitable distribution between competing biomass conversion technologies and competing biomass and fossil technologies. In achieving greater equity, these pathways ease biomass market tensions; enhance EU food security; improve EU biobased trade balances; accelerate biomaterial sectors’ output performance and favour macroeconomic growth. Moreover, an additional 80% increase in the oil price signals a tipping point in favour of first generation biofuels, whilst simultaneously boosting output in advanced material conversion technologies even more than the high-technology pathway.     

Melitz Meets Milk: The Impact of Quota Abolition on EU Dairy Export Competitiveness

Previous studies of EU milk quota abolition usually assume perfect competition (PC) in the dairy industry, despite evidence to the contrary. We use a global computable general equilibrium framework with an imperfectly competitive (IC) model variant, which offers insights into structural change (i.e. scale of output, firm entry/exit) and varietal diversity in the dairy industry. A heterogeneous‐firm Melitz extension enriches our analysis by endogenising the decision‐making process of domestic firms when exporting (or not) to specific foreign markets. The results from a PC CGE model variant are found to be consistent with respected market outlooks and official data. Furthermore, PC and IC variants generate broadly similar trends – a result corroborated in a previous study of Italian dairy firms. Our IC model prediction of a ‘shakeout’ among EU dairy firms is tentatively supported by actual observations. Finally, as an industry characterised by significant product innovation, increased extra‐EU export orientation by remaining dairy firms increases varietal choice, which further boosts EU dairy exports compared with the PC model variant.     

Making sense of Brexit losses: An in-depth review of macroeconomic studies

Almost all economic assessments of Brexit conclude that there would be significant losses for both the UK and the EU. This paper examines the driving forces behind these results. We consider the strong economic relationships between the UK and EU both at the sectoral and macroeconomic levels that are at risk from Brexit. We review fifteen studies that explore various Brexit scenarios (hard and soft) and explain why their different methodologies and assumptions yield different degrees of economic damage. Our review concludes that GDP losses for the UK from a hard Brexit range from 1.6% to 7.8%, while a soft Brexit would moderate the losses by roughly half. We also find that potential UK trade agreements with third countries could partially compensate for significant Brexit losses.     

The economic impact of the Trans‐Pacific Partnership: What have we learned from CGE simulation?

The Trans‐Pacific Partnership (TPP ) trade agreement, if were it to be successfully implemented, would be one of the largest regional agreements ever seen. It is the only exemplar to date of a “mega‐regional” FTA for which negotiations have been successfully concluded, and a landmark in evolving approaches to Asia–Pacific integration. As such, quantitative assessments of its potential effects are of considerable interest. One of the most widely used techniques for evaluating the economic impact of regional trading agreements is numerical simulation with computable general equilibrium, or CGE , models. There have now been a large number of papers written that use CGE methods to analyse the potential economic impact of the TPP agreement under varying theoretical and policy assumptions. In this paper we provide a synthesis of the key results that have emerged from the literature, and introduce some new simulation results of our own to anchor the discussion.