住房价格上涨对CPI的传导效应——兼论我国CPI编制体系的缺陷

按照SNA核算要求,居民购买住房不记作消费,但是房价与CPI并非毫无关联。住房价格上涨通过居住类权数和自有住房类价格指数的变化传导至CPI,并对其它商品和服务的消费产生挤出效应。目前官方统计没有考虑房价的这种传导效应,致使CPI严重失实。经测算,CPI的低估数值接近1个百分点,低估幅度超过1倍。     

基于互联网大数据的CPI舆情指数构建与应用

研究目标：基于互联网大数据构建CPI舆情指数辅助预测CPI。研究方法：提出了一种构建CPI低频与高频舆情指数的统计方法,并通过选用2006年6月至2015年12月的数据验证了该方法的有效性。研究发现：相关关键词的搜索热度指标具有领先CPI的预测作用,依此建立的CPI舆情指数有助于改进CPI预测精度。研究创新：揭示了基于相关关键词的搜索热度指标与CPI的非线性关系,提出了一种基于门限回归的CPI低频舆情指数构建方法;使用动态因子模型估计出了CPI高频舆情指数。研究价值：预测CPI时可辅助利用基于大数据构建的CPI低频与高频舆情指数信息。     

Life Cycle Price Trends and Product Replacement: Implications for the Measurement of Inflation

The paper explores the extent to which products follow systematic pricing patterns over their life cycle and the impact this has on the measurement of inflation. Using a large U.S. scanner data set on supermarket products and applying flexible regression methods, we find that on average prices decline as items age. This life cycle price change is often attributed to quality difference in the construction of CPI as items are replaced due to disappearance or during sample rotations. This introduces a systematic bias in the measurement of inflation. For our data we find that the life cycle bias leads to the underestimation of inflation by around 0.30 percentage points each year for the products examined.     

Hedonic prices indexes for new passenger cars in Portugal (1997–2001)

This paper evaluates the effects of quality change on the price index for new passenger cars in Portugal for the years 1997–2001. Hedonic regression models are studied, giving particular emphasis to the relation between the form of the price index and the econometric techniques used for inference. The results of the empirical part of the paper indicate that during this period the changes in the quality of new cars sold in Portugal are responsible for price increases averaging 4.8% per year. Because this quality change was not entirely taken into account, in recent years the CPI component corresponding to the sales of new passenger cars may have been overestimated by as much as 2.2 percentage points per year. This corresponds to an overestimation of the overall CPI by about 0.15 percentage points per year.     

当前经济热点问题思考

随着中国经济进入"十二五",经济改革将进入"激流区"。国际经济阴晴不定,国内经济面临转变经济发展模式,"中等收入陷阱"等诸多难题。就淡化GDP考核、CPI治理、缩小贫富差距、提高经济发展质量提出自己的意见和建议。     

“泛珠三角”少数民族聚居地区与发达地区的CPI波动性研究

本文中广西省和云南省被选取为"泛珠三角"少数民族聚居地的代表,广东省为"泛珠三角"发达地区的代表。利用3个省份的CPI数据,建立三元时变相关的广义自回归条件方差模型。通过分析3个省份CPI的波动性特征以及它们的时变相关系数,有助于研究"泛珠三角"经济带中的少数民族聚居地区与发达地区经济发展的波动性情况。     

Corruption and Economic Efficiency: Panel Data Evidence

Abstract

This paper investigates empirically the effect of corruption on countries' economic efficiency. By using a sample of 79 countries for the time period 2000–2006 the paper applies DEA window analysis and econometric panel data techniques. The results reveal that there is a U-shaped relationship between countries' corruption perception levels and economic efficiency. Furthermore, it appears that corruption has a negative effect on countries' economic efficiency. For the first time the turning points of such a relationship are being produced indicating that on average terms and regardless of countries' economic structure, Corruption Perception Index (CPI) above five initiate a positive effect on a countries' economic efficiency.     

Asymmetries in Price‐Setting Behavior: New Microeconometric Evidence from Switzerland

In this paper, we follow the recent empirical literature that has specified reduced‐form models for price setting that are closely tied to (S, s) ‐pricing rules. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, we propose an estimator that relaxes distributional assumptions on the unobserved heterogeneity. Second, we use the estimator to examine the prevalence of positive price changes in a low‐inflation environment. Our model estimates suggest that, if inflation falls from 0.9% to zero, the share of positive price changes in all price changes falls from 63.6% to 56.2%.     

我国CPI、PPI差值与股票指数关系的实证研究——以上证指数为例

本文以A股市场的驱动方式逐渐由政策推动转变为业绩驱动为假设,定量分析了反映上市公司单位产品毛盈利的CPI、PPI差值与上证指数之间的关系。实证结果显示：CPI、PPI差值与上证指数之间关系稳定,并且其变动对上证指数的变动构成显著影响,可将此模型作为传统预测指数方法的拓展。     

国际原油价格波动是否增加了国内CPI通胀率的不确定性?

本文选取2001年1月至2011年10月的月度统计数据,基于二阶矩意义的Granger因果检验方法,在多元GARCH模型框架下,运用残差向量的方差-协方差矩阵所包含的信息,构建非对称的BEKK模型,对国际油价波动与国内消费者价格指数(CPI)通胀率不确定性的因果关系进行了检验。结论表明,国际油价波动会向国内CPI输出不确定性因素,且短期油价上涨更容易增加国内CPI的不确定性;但国内CPI变动无法向国际油价输出不确定性。