论云南少数民族服饰的丰富内涵

文章着重从云南少数民族服饰在历史变迁中的实用价值、宗教信仰、审美情趣、民族性格、民族心理、等级差别、财产观念以及对历史的传承和变异多个方面,分析云南少数民族服饰的丰富内涵,为现代服装的设计提供新的思路。     

Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia

Summary. We show the dynamics of diverse beliefs is the primary propagation mechanism of volatility in asset markets. Hence, we treat the characteristics of the market beliefs as a primary, primitive, explanation of market volatility. We study an economy with stock and riskless bond markets and formulate a financial equilibrium model with diverse and time varying beliefs. Agents states of belief play a key role in the market, requiring an endogenous expansion of the state space. To forecast prices agents must forecast market states of belief which are beliefs of others hence our equilibrium embodies the Keynes Beauty Contest. A market state of belief is a vector which uniquely identifies the distribution of conditional probabilities of agents. Restricting beliefs to satisfy the rationality principle of Rational Belief (see Kurz, 1994, 1997) our economy replicates well the empirical record of the (i) moments of the price/dividend ratio, risky stock return, riskless interest rate and the equity premium; (ii) Sharpe ratio and the correlation between risky returns and consumption growth; (iii) predictability of stock returns and price/dividend ratio as expressed by: (I) Variance Ratio statistic for long lags, (II) autocorrelation of these variables, and (III) mean reversion of the risky returns and the predictive power of the price/dividend ratio. Also, our model explains the presence of stochastic volatility in asset prices and returns. Two properties of beliefs drive market volatility: (i) rationalizable over confidence implying belief densities with fat tails, and (ii) rationalizable asymmetry in frequencies of bull or bear states.This research was supported by a grant of the Smith Richardson Foundation to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). We thank Kenneth Judd for constant advice which was crucial at several points in the development of this work. We also thank Kenneth Arrow, Min Fan, Michael Magill, Carsten Nielsen, Manuel Santos, Nicholas Yannelis, Ho-Mou Wu and Woody Brock for comments on earlier drafts. The RBE model developed in this paper and the associated programs used to compute it are available to the public on Mordecai Kurzs web page at http://www.stanford.edu/ mordecai.This revised version was published online in January 2005 with corrections to the Cover date.     

Health Belief Model: Evaluating Marketing Promotion in a Public Vaccination Program

National health objectives are driven to increase participation rates. Individual health decisions are determined by attitudes, behavior, lifestyles, and government policies. This research, therefore, examined not just the development and delivery of a message targeting individual voluntary behavior change, but the intention of changes in social structures that will facilitate individuals reaching their potential; thus the purpose of this article is to shed light on the uptake of the human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization using the health belief model (HBM). Research was conducted with the use of focus groups by drawing on the framework of the HBM. This research approach is conceptual by nature, based on the virtue of marketing promotion and on HBM literature. Though offering the vaccine free to the general public provides additional evidence to certain groups on the intention to act or uptake of the vaccine, awareness levels were found to be poor despite increased efforts by the government trying to promote this vaccine. There was evidence that social capital and trust can produce effective communication message strategies that reinforce social bonds. This article provides an interesting basis for further investigation; however, as implausible as it seems the article also contributes to the concept of perceived benefits and of self-efficacy.     

普通高校大学生信仰危机的社会因素浅析——以西安文理学院为例

随着我国教育体制改革的推进,社会对普通高校大学生的思想政治教育越来越重视,信仰教育作为思想政治教育的核心,其地位也日益凸显。本论文旨在对西安文理学院学生信仰状况调查的基础上,考察普通高校大学生在信仰方面存在的问题,从而分析大学生信仰危机形成的社会原因,最后提出从四个方面,来加强普通高校大学生的信仰教育。     

Revealing the determinants of wheat yields in the Siberian breadbasket of Russia with Bayesian networks

Higher crop yields are critical to satisfy the rising global food demand. Russia holds untapped potential for increasing agricultural production because current grain yields are often far below the potentially attainable yields. Western Siberia is an important breadbasket in Russia, where wheat yields fall particularly short of their potential. Our goal was to assess the determinants of yield variations among farmers in the province of Altai Krai in Western Siberia. We conducted 67 structured in-person interviews with corporate farm managers and individual farmers about the potential determinants of wheat yields and complemented these data with 149 additional observations obtained from the provincial agricultural extension service. We used Bayesian networks (BNs) to represent the relationships between the explanatory parameters and contemporary wheat yields and to examine qualitative future scenarios of future yields. The results revealed higher yields on larger farms than on medium and small farms. Our results corroborated that the application of fertilizers and herbicides and the implementation of new equipment had large positive impacts on the yields. The scenario of higher future production costs and lower precipitation resulted in a yield reduction from 7.6 dt/ha to 5.3. Overall, our results suggest that policies aimed at increasing wheat yields should concentrate on the education of farmers and encourage higher input applications, particularly for small-scale farms. Additionally, policies should address concurrent challenges, such as a higher drought frequency, through the application of new equipment, seed material and tillage practices.     

The effectiveness of deservingness‐based advertising messages: The role of product knowledge and belief in a just world

Are advertisements that tell consumers they deserve a product effective? Given evidence showing people are motivated to get what they deserve, we argue that for certain consumers this is the case. In two experiments, we manipulated the type of ad participants viewed for a luxury product and then assessed ad effectiveness. We also measured participants’ belief in a just world (BJW) and product knowledge. Deservingness‐based ads were (a) more effective for strong BJW participants, mediated by the degree to which the ads matched participants’ worldview and justified buying the product, and (b) less effective for high knowledge participants. We conclude that deservingness‐based advertising can be successful, depending on consumer characteristics. Copyright © 2016 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

引入深度学习的城市基准地价评估模型研究

研究目的:为全面表征影响因素与土地价格之间的复杂函数关系,提高城镇基准地价预测精度,研究一种更精准的地价评估方法。研究方法:提出一种基于深度学习思想的城市基准地价评估方法,通过实例法验证模型的可行性和有效性。研究结果:(1)与BP神经网络、支持向量机这类浅层学习模型相比,DBN的深层网络结构明显能够更好地挖掘城市地价样本集的深层特征,获得更好的评估精度;(2)DBN的无监督训练框架能够利用少量的训练样本获得较高的评估精度,并且随着无标签样本的增加模型评估精度也逐渐提高。研究结论:DBN模型能够精准拟合地价影响因素和土地价格之间的复杂关系,对于基准地价评估工作具有重要的实际应用意义。     

The Role of the Business Press in Creating and Disseminating Information around Earnings Announcements

This paper investigates the role of the business press in creating and disseminating information around earnings announcements by examining different motivations of trading volume. We find that press coverage is positively associated with trading activity motivated by differential interpretation and by differential belief revision, consistent with the press playing both an information creation and information dissemination role around earnings announcements. When we divide press coverage into full articles with additional editorial content and news flashes merely repeating verbatim of firm-disclosed press releases, we find that trading volume motivated by both differential interpretation and differential belief revision increases as coverage by full articles increases, and trading volume motivated by differential belief revision increases as coverage by news flashes increases. We also report that the differential interpretation effect of full articles is more pronounced when information users’ sophistication is high. Overall, we provide new evidence to the literature by showing that each type of press coverage plays an informational role in different motivations of trading activity.     

Managing privacy paradox through national culture: Reshaping online retailing strategy

Data privacy is a threat to the future of e-commerce. Consumers face a dilemma in balancing the risks and benefits associated with online privacy, leading to a phenomenon termed the privacy paradox. The study interviewed 30 Millennials representing 13 countries using a grounded theory approach to explore the influence of national culture on the information disclosure attitude in the context of online retailing. The study presents a novel framework, Privacy Paradox Pyramid, to manage the privacy paradox through the lens of national culture, enabling retailers to segment the customers and design a tailored approach to create a competitive advantage.