创业失败经验对连续创业意愿的影响——创业失败学习与市场动荡性的作用

基于经验学习理论，探究创业失败经验如何通过创业失败学习影响创业者连续创业意愿，以及市场动荡性的调节作用。对176位有失败经历的创业者进行问卷调查，结果表明：创业失败经验对创业失败学习和连续创业意愿均有显著正向影响；创业失败学习在创业失败经验与连续创业意愿关系间起中介作用；市场动荡性负向调节创业失败学习与连续创业意愿的关系，即市场动荡性越高，创业失败学习与连续创业意愿间的关系越弱。研究结论对于拓展创业失败经验与连续创业意愿研究、帮助创业者从失败中复原，以及激励连续创业具有重要理论价值和实践意义。     

海关支持综合保税区高水平开放高质量发展研究——以江苏省综合保税区为例

2019年1月12日,国务院印发了《关于促进综合保税区高水平开放高质量发展的若干意见》(国发〔2019〕3号,以下简称《若干意见》),推出21项政策措施加快推进制度创新、促进综合保税区(以下简称“综保区”)升级发展。文件出台后,各地综保区围绕“五大中心”的建设目标,在海关及其他相关职能部门的支持下,加强政策宣传,推动改革创新,强化考核评价,努力推动各项政策落地。为了更好地推进综保区高水平开放高质量发展,课题组对江苏省综保区发展情况开展全方位调研,并且以江苏省综保区为例,对当前制约综保区发展的原因,特别是影响《若干意见》实施效果的原因进行了深入分析,按照制度型开放的要求,从管理机制、发展目标、监管模式等角度提出合理建议,探索新时期海关支持综保区高水平开放高质量发展的路径。     

Optimal capacity and operation design of a robot logistics system for the hotel industry

This study introduces an optimal capacity and operation design of a robot logistics system that can reduce human workload in the hotel industry. In hotels, there are several duties that can be replaced by robots such as accompanying guests to the certain areas, delivering specific items to the guest rooms, and transporting some items that guests want to be removed from the guest rooms. To apply the robot logistics system in the hotel industry, the capacity and operation design should be prepared adequately. For that, a mathematical model-based optimization technique is used to decide the number of robots with the concept of minimizing total investment cost and to derive the optimal job assigning with the purpose of maximizing total covered jobs. In addition, a numerical example is performed to validate the proposed mathematical model and the sensitivity tests are examined to reflect the random features.     

The death of development theory: From Friedrich von Hayek to the Washington consensus

Abstract

Development strategies followed by many countries in the 20th century bestowed a relevant role to the State. During the 1970s, it all reversed, and free markets became paramount to efficiency. F. von Hayek and the Mount Pelerin Society led the way to eliminate the State as a significant economic player, while P.T. Bauer extended such ideas to development economics, which would eventually give way to the Washington Consensus. Beyond actual results of such policies, it is surprising to see the appeal of Bauer’s theoretical approach, considering that it is constructed disregarding both empirical evidence, as well as the abundant discussion on development that was taking place contemporarily. This article explores the theoretical process of such reversal in development economics theory.     

The use of landslide hazard maps to determine mitigation priorities in a dam reservoir and its protection area

Despite longstanding research on the landslide hazard assessment and mapping, the use this information in regional planning applications remains largely unclear. There is still a need for novel methods to interpret the results of hazard analyses. In this respect, the main research question of this study is how the landslide hazard maps can be evaluated in planning practice. To evaluate this issue, a comprehensive case study was carried out and a new methodology, defining the order of priority for the locations where mitigation measures are applied was developed. The investigations were carried out in the Melen Dam reservoir, which provides potable water to the city of Istanbul, and the dam protection area (Duzce, Turkey) in four main stages: (i) Evaluation of the general characteristics of the study area, (ii) preparation of landslide inventory, (iii) development of landslide hazard model, and (iv) implementation of the results of hazard analyses in planning. As a consequence, a decision support system that can evaluate analytically complicated outputs “P_Combined”, “P_{AL min.}”, and “L_Total” and provide clear decisions “Urgent”, “Primary”, and “Secondary” was suggested. Considering the limited resources available for the mitigation measures, the determination of mitigation priorities for the micro-catchments constitutes the key land-use policy for the protection of the dam reservoir.     

Research on a diagnostic system of rural vitalization based on development elements in China

In 2017, the Chinese government implemented a national strategy of "Rural Vitalization" that sought to realize full-scale rural vitalization. However, is it possible to achieve vitalization for all the villages in China? How should their development potential be determined? This paper identified and analyzed the "element-composite" messages of rural development based on 99 exemplary sites of “Beautiful Villages” in China. Combined with the projection pursuit classification method, a diagnostic system of rural vitalization was established; then, Dehua County was taken as a case study for an in-depth analysis. Based on national data analysis, the final results indicated that livelihood resources (LR), agglomeration effects (AE), location and transportation (LT), cultural/natural landscapes (CN), and economic circumstance (EC) are essential elements for successful rural development. Additionally, EC was the only exogenous element, while the remaining elements were endogenous. Furthermore, the villages with better EC presented urbanization rates of 38∼82 % and Engel coefficients of 29∼41 % in their counties; exemplary sites lacking LR, CN, LT, and AE account for 13.13 %, 19.19 %, 26.26 %, and 60.61 % respectively, so the indispensability of these elements decreases progressively in sequence. Only 2 % of villages rely on single element for success, therefore, the composite pattern of development element was also critical; 10 out of 16 types were found to successfully facilitate village development, among which, the type of R-a-L-C (32.32 %) and R-A-L-C (15.15 %) were considered as the greatest potential patterns for vitalization. Finally, by means of the diagnostic system, the ratio of representative villages for high-low potential in Dehua County is evenly split; then, development paths, and land use policies that match with paths were proposed, on the basis of development potential and “element-composite” condition of themselves.     

Environmental Outcomes of Urban Land System Change: Comparing Riparian Design Approaches in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

In the face of climate change and other environmental challenges, an increasing number of cities are turning to land design to enhance urban sustainability. Land system architecture (LSA)—which examines the role of size, shape, distribution, and connectivity of land units in relation to the system’s social-environmental dynamics—can be a useful perspective for examining how land contributes to the social and environmental aspects of urban sustainability. There are two gaps, however, that prevent LSA from fully contributing to urban sustainability dialogues. First, it is not well understood how urban design goals, as expressed by urban planners and other practitioners, relate to LSA and environmental outcomes. Second, most LSA work focuses on individual environmental outcomes, such as the urban heat island effect, instead of considering the broader suite of outcomes that LSA changes impact. Here, we undertake an integrated assessment of LSA impacts on surface urban heat island (based on land surface temperature), vegetation presence/health (based on NDVI), and bird biota at two riparian sites with different design intentions in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area. The Rio Salado in Tempe underwent a city-led, infill redevelopment that mixed economic, recreational, and flood control design goals. The New River in Peoria experienced a more typical developer-driven urbanization. The contexts and design goals of the sites generated differences in their LSA, but only a few of these differences were sufficiently unique to contribute to divergent environmental outcomes. These differences reside in (1) the greater distribution of recreational land-covers and (2) increased surface water at the Rio Salado site compared to the New River site. Both changes are linked to land-cover patches becoming greener and cooler as well as a greater presence of waterbird and warbler species at the Rio Salado site. The distinctions between the sites provide insight for crafting design goals for redeveloping or restoring urban riparian landscapes in the Phoenix metropolitan area that are grounded in LSA. With the incorporation of additional relevant variables, especially socioeconomic ones, the research approach employed in this study provides a foundation for the assessment of other urban land system change.     

The difference of expert opinion on the forest-based ecotourism development in developed countries and Iran

Ecotourism development in a forest area includes many positive and negative aspects and requires a comprehensive study that can consider all simultaneously. Because of the inner and outer dependence or feedback links between the criteria in this research, the Analytical Network Process (ANP) based on the BOCR Model was used. Decision making and planning for the development of ecotourism is influenced by the attitude of experts towards development impacts. The question of this research was whether due to different environmental conditions in Iran, is it appropriate to follow ecotourism development patterns of developed countries? Given the different forest conditions in Iran, the weights of decision-making criteria for ecotourism development was significantly different for experts from Iran and developed countries. Weight difference for five sub-criteria, ECB2, ECB3, SOB4, ENC4 and, ENR2 were not significant, but for the rest of the sub-criteria were significant at 1% level. The results of comparing the mean weight values of the alternatives with an independent t-test indicated the difference was significant at 1% level. According to experts of the developed countries, ecotourism development with a weight of 0.927 and according to experts of Iran with a weight of 0.531 was prioritized.     

Correlated daily time series and forecasting in the M4 competition

We participated in the M4 competition for time series forecasting and here describe our methods for forecasting daily time series. We used an ensemble of five statistical forecasting methods and a method that we refer to as the correlator. Our retrospective analysis using the ground truth values published by the M4 organisers after the competition demonstrates that the correlator was responsible for most of our gains over the naïve constant forecasting method. We identify data leakage as one reason for its success, due partly to test data selected from different time intervals, and partly to quality issues with the original time series. We suggest that future forecasting competitions should provide actual dates for the time series so that some of these leakages could be avoided by participants.