Political booms and currency crises

This paper shows evidence that political booms, defined as the rise in governments’ popularity, are associated with a higher likelihood of currency crises. The reasoning behind this finding is that prudent economic policies to address underlying weaknesses in the economy may be political costly for incumbent governments in the short-term. Hence, popularity-concerned governments may not have enough incentives to take such corrective actions in a timely manner. This approach, in turn, can deteriorate economic fundamentals and increase related risks in the economy which can eventually lead to crises. This paper sheds light on this phenomenon in the case of currency crises, suggesting that currency crises can be viewed as “political booms gone bust” events. Moreover, it finds that higher international reserves, higher exports, and a higher degree of financial openness alleviate the effect of political booms on currency crises.     

国际策略情境、国际双元学习与后发企业创新赶超

整合国际策略与双元学习理论，构建国际策略情境、国际双元学习的平衡和联合与后发企业创新赶超之间的关系模型。基于长三角地区327家外向型制造企业（高新技术企业）问卷调查数据，发现国际策略情境以及国际双元学习平衡和联合均显著正向影响企业创新赶超，国际策略情境对国际双元学习平衡和联合均具有显著正向影响，并且国际双元学习平衡和联合均在国际策略情境与创新赶超之间具有部分中介作用。研究结果揭示了国际化视域下双元学习与后发企业创新赶超的内在影响机制，延展了企业国际化、组织学习和创新赶超等相关领域理论空间，对于本土企业有效实施创新赶超具有启示意义。     

Permit markets,carbon prices and the creation of innovation clusters

Innovation clusters combining public and private effort to develop breakthrough technologies promise greater technological advances to slow down climate change. We use a multi-country model with an emission trading system to examine whether and how international climate policy can incentivize countries to create such innovation clusters. We find that a minimal carbon price is needed to attract applied research firms, but countries may nevertheless fail to invest in complementary research infrastructure. We construct a mechanism that leads to innovation clusters when emissions targets are set before uncertainty surrounding technological developments is resolved. It is a combination of low permit endowments for the country with the lowest costs to build the needed infrastructure, compensation for this country by profits from permit trade, and maximal possible permit endowments for the remaining countries. We outline how the EU-ETS can be further refined according to this mechanism.     

Terrorism and international economic policy

We add to the ongoing discussion regarding the policy consequences of terrorism by analyzing the effect of terrorism on international economic policy for a panel of 170 countries between 1970 and 2016. We find that countries resort to less liberal international economic policies when facing the threat of terrorism. This effect is especially relevant to smaller (less populated) countries. Our main finding is robust to an instrumental-variable approach. We argue that governments pursue less liberal international economic policies in response to terrorism to interrupt the organization and financing of terrorism, limit capital flight, stabilize public finances and signal political resolve.     

浅谈基于大数据背景下的数字经济发展——以数字电网为例

我们已经进入了一个全新的大数据信息化时代,充满了更多的机遇与挑战。大数据及数字经济的出现极大程度地改变了传统技术及工作思维的方式。数字经济是继工业和农业之后的又一大经济形态,为社会的经济增长提供了新的动力。通过分析电网行业传统的科学技术及作业方式,论文简要阐述了基于大数据信息化发展下电网的影响,并认为信息化技术的发展对于数字经济有着至关重要的影响及重要性。最后论文讨论了数字经济发展存在的问题及方向。     

信息化环境下企业内部审计模式思考

随着信息技术的高速发展,大数据技术呈现出爆发增长并逐渐渗入各行各业。基于信息化的大背景,大数据技术已被越来越多的企事业单位广泛运用,为企业发展带来更多可能性。大数据审计作为一种新型内部审计手段,具备独特的优势,将其运用到企业内部审计中可以较大程度提高内部审计的效率。但是它也为内部审计带来了一定不确定性,进而增加其审计风险。论文就大数据审计在企业内部审计中的应用进行了相关分析,并提出了相应的应对措施。     

经济开放与货币需求:国际金融风险及持币成本的测度

在中国开放经济体制下的基准货币需求模型中,本文将源于国际金融市场的持币成本设为遗漏潜变量,并构建特定的国际金融综合指数(CIFI)作为该潜变量的测度。借鉴机器学习与测度理论,本文利用对数误差修正模型提出了分步降维的CIFI构造算法,构造了长期CIFI和短期CIFI。结果表明,CIFI构造中的无监督降维步骤有助于减少高维金融数据中的冗余信息。实证分析发现,国际机会成本对中国货币需求具有规律性的前导影响,而在2007至2008年国际金融危机期间,央行的应急措施对长期CIFI所代表的非均衡冲击起到明显的阻截效果,对短期CIFI的影响基本是持续不变的。通过综合指数构造与宏观货币需求模型的算法连接,可以利用CIFI的构成结构从前导时间与影响强度两方面追踪冲击货币需求的国际金融风险的具体来源,这为宏观决策者监测国际金融市场提供了颇有规律的信息。在方法论上,本研究为如何利用模型监测国际金融市场影响宏观经济开辟了一条新路。     

Digital marketing communication in global marketplaces: A review of extant research,future directions,and potential approaches

Digital marketing communication, that is, communication through digital or electronic media among businesses and consumers, is growing rapidly, especially during the COVID-19 era. We propose a framework for analyzing digital marketing communication along four major dyads, business-to-consumer (B2C), business-to-business (B2B), consumer-to-consumer (C2C), and consumer-to-business (C2B). We review and summarize, for researchers and practitioners, the literature during 2000–2021 in these dyads along four major components: goals; channels, media, and platforms; content; and responses. We find that extant research in digital marketing communication pertains mostly to a specific, national level rather than a global level, despite the porousness of national boundaries for digital marketing. We derive important insights, identify key research gaps and questions in each of the dyads along these dimensions. We suggest approaches to address these research questions under three major components: substantive issues, data, and methods. These approaches can offer the insights that managers need to better formulate digital marketing strategies in local and global contexts.     

Multicultural managers and competitive advantage: Evidence from elite football teams

Successful organizations have dynamic capabilities that are aligned with their competitive environments. As competitive environments globalize, the dynamic capabilities driven by managers with multicultural backgrounds are increasingly relevant. These managers are more likely to seize cognitively distant opportunities than monocultural managers. Using panel analysis of multilevel data from 355 elite football (soccer) teams, we find support for a moderated relationship among the degree of globalization in the competitive environment, the multicultural background of team managers, and team performance. When the competitive environment is highly global, teams with multicultural managers outperform teams with monocultural managers. When the competitive environment is less global, the reverse is true. The same effect holds when tested both cross-sectionally and longitudinally.