技术创业型企业孵化资本投入的风险管控——来自多案例对比

待孵化的技术创业型企业同时具有概念性技术向差异化产品转化的高风险与产品异质性被认同后溢价评估的高收益特点，导致其投资者多处于隔岸观火却欲罢不能的的孵化投资矛盾中。对孵化资本实施有效的风险管控，成为吸引外部资本投入的关键。基于此，选择在可创概念选育与技术创业孵化领域探索出高成功率路径的概念证明中心、YCombinator和创新工场为研究案例，分析其在创业项目筛选、孵化资金运营等关键环节的风险管控方式，以期完善我国孵化资本管控理论、助力我国商业孵化器提高资金风险管控能力、促进外部资本投入。     

Effects of price sorting display on extreme option choice aversion: The role of ease of comparison in multiple option displays

Due to the popularity of online travel agency (OTA) booking platforms, OTAs display diverse information, including features of products, on their websites. Based on choice architecture literature, this study aimed to examine the effect of product quality and price sorting (vs. non-sorting) on extreme option choice aversion and identify the moderating effect of displays that made it difficult to read information. The results of a series of four experimental studies (total n = 2838 online panel members) demonstrated that the tendency to choose the non-extreme or middle-attributed options was stronger when quality and price were displayed sorted (vs. non-sorted). It was theorized that easy comparison of multiple options leads to decision-making. The positive effect of quality and price sorting on extreme option choice aversion was significantly reduced when customers had difficulty reading the displayed information.     

Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty

This article investigates how uncertainty impacts the effect of monetary policy surprises on stock returns. Using high-frequency US data, we demonstrate that stock markets respond more aggressively to monetary policy surprises during periods of high uncertainty. We also show that uncertainty asymmetrically influences the transmission of positive and negative monetary policy surprises to stock market prices. The amplifying effect of uncertainty is found to be stronger for expansionary shocks than for contractionary shocks. Our robustness analysis confirms that financial uncertainty has a significant role in shaping the influence of monetary policy on the stock market.     

Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers

This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.     

预算软约束与风险偏好强化：非均衡式创新中的风险点识别研究

计划经济体制导致资源使用效率低下，社会中存在大量非均衡市场和领域，这为中国企业实施均衡式创新创造了条件。随着均衡式创新的帕累托改进空间逐渐缩小，利用非均衡式创新提升资源使用效率已刻不容缓。在非均衡式创新过程中，政府极易侵入社会主体创新边界，导致创新租值降低或耗散。政府对创新主体的财政资金扶持容易对创新预算形成软约束，导致创新目标替代，强化创新主体的风险偏好，放大创新系统风险，诱发俘获政府行为，最终导致创新企业逆向淘汰。因此，明确政府在创新活动中的边界与风险，对我国实施创新驱动发展战略至关重要。     

Natural resource rents and internal conflicts: Can decentralization lift the curse?

We study how natural resource rents affect the risk of internal conflict within countries and how the federal structure of countries influences this relationship. Natural resource abundance may induce excessive rent-seeking and thus increase the risk of internal conflict. Fiscal and political decentralization as an institutional arrangement for rent-sharing and political codetermination of regions within a country may limit the destructive effect of natural resource rents on internal stability. Using cross-country and panel data from more than 90 countries covering the period 1984–2004, we find evidence that natural resource rents indeed increase the risk of internal conflict, but this relationship is significantly mitigated by political decentralization.     

China and international market integration: Evidence from the law of one price in the Middle East and Africa

We model market integration in the Middle East and Africa by analyzing price dispersion and testing the law of one price (LOP) on highly-comparable actual local retail prices of 135 goods and services across 23 countries in the region over the period of 1990–2016. Second-generation panel estimators are applied to four price benchmarks: Regional average, South Africa, China, and US prices. Cross-regional price dispersion diminishes considerably over time up to 2008, particularly for non-tradeables around China price. The test of LOP indicates the percentage of convergent prices is highest in China price benchmark, followed by US, South Africa, and regional average benchmarks. Direct estimation of the convergence speed confirms this order. Overall, the results show evidence of increasing market integration in Middle East and Africa but it appears to be driven by global forces and, especially, the rise of China as a new economic power. The results show that some emerging market economies, such as China, can step up and promote integration while traditional economic powerhouses, such as the USA and UK, disengage from international economic relations.     

中国家庭股市资产价值变动对居民消费的影响——来自CHFS的微观证据

近年来针对股市资产价值变动与消费关系的研究多采用宏观数据，难以揭示股市资产价值变动对居民消费影响的细节。为克服以上缺陷，文章利用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据分析股市资产价值变动对中国居民消费的影响。实证结果表明：（1）股市资产价值变动对居民消费的影响总体较弱，其中市值变动的财富效应主要体现在改善性消费上，而对饮食等日常必须消费和奢侈品消费影响较小，这可能与我国居民的收入结构和投资方式有关；（2）随着年龄增长，居民的收入分布和资产配置倾向发生改变，股市资产价值变动对不同年龄居民消费的影响呈现先减小后增大的U型分布。研究结论揭示了股市资产价值变动对居民消费影响的分布特征，为今后股市改革方向提供了建议。     

Persistence of Price–Cost Margin and Technical Efficiency in the Indonesian Food and Beverage Industry

Abstract

This research investigates the persistence of price–cost margin (PCM) and technical efficiency (TE) of firms and the relation between these two factors in 44 subsectors of the Indonesian food and beverage industry in the period 1980–2014. Data envelopment analysis with a bootstrapping approach is applied to estimate TE. An autoregressive model, accounting for endogeneity, is applied to estimate the persistence coefficients of PCM and TE. A cross-sectional regression model is also applied to estimate the relation between the persistence of the PCM and the persistence of TE. The results show that for these food and beverage firms, high PCM and low TE persist. Furthermore, the persistence of PCM negatively affects the persistence of TE in the industry.