Political booms and currency crises

This paper shows evidence that political booms, defined as the rise in governments’ popularity, are associated with a higher likelihood of currency crises. The reasoning behind this finding is that prudent economic policies to address underlying weaknesses in the economy may be political costly for incumbent governments in the short-term. Hence, popularity-concerned governments may not have enough incentives to take such corrective actions in a timely manner. This approach, in turn, can deteriorate economic fundamentals and increase related risks in the economy which can eventually lead to crises. This paper sheds light on this phenomenon in the case of currency crises, suggesting that currency crises can be viewed as “political booms gone bust” events. Moreover, it finds that higher international reserves, higher exports, and a higher degree of financial openness alleviate the effect of political booms on currency crises.     

国际策略情境、国际双元学习与后发企业创新赶超

整合国际策略与双元学习理论，构建国际策略情境、国际双元学习的平衡和联合与后发企业创新赶超之间的关系模型。基于长三角地区327家外向型制造企业（高新技术企业）问卷调查数据，发现国际策略情境以及国际双元学习平衡和联合均显著正向影响企业创新赶超，国际策略情境对国际双元学习平衡和联合均具有显著正向影响，并且国际双元学习平衡和联合均在国际策略情境与创新赶超之间具有部分中介作用。研究结果揭示了国际化视域下双元学习与后发企业创新赶超的内在影响机制，延展了企业国际化、组织学习和创新赶超等相关领域理论空间，对于本土企业有效实施创新赶超具有启示意义。     

Permit markets,carbon prices and the creation of innovation clusters

Innovation clusters combining public and private effort to develop breakthrough technologies promise greater technological advances to slow down climate change. We use a multi-country model with an emission trading system to examine whether and how international climate policy can incentivize countries to create such innovation clusters. We find that a minimal carbon price is needed to attract applied research firms, but countries may nevertheless fail to invest in complementary research infrastructure. We construct a mechanism that leads to innovation clusters when emissions targets are set before uncertainty surrounding technological developments is resolved. It is a combination of low permit endowments for the country with the lowest costs to build the needed infrastructure, compensation for this country by profits from permit trade, and maximal possible permit endowments for the remaining countries. We outline how the EU-ETS can be further refined according to this mechanism.     

I Feel Your Pain: The Effect of Regulator as a Minority Shareholder on Merger and Acquisition Performance

We examine the effect of a regulator-led advocate for minority shareholders on merger and acquisition (M&A) performance in China. In recent years, the China Securities Regulatory Commission established the China Securities Investor Services Center (CSISC), which began its ownership of 100 shares of public firms in 2016. The CSISC advocates for the interests of minority shareholders proactively. Focusing on abnormal stock returns in M&A announcements, we find that acquirers that have the CSISC as a shareholder (CSISC acquirers) exhibit higher positive abnormal stock returns than non-CSISC acquirers. Cross-sectional analysis suggests that the core results are mainly driven by firms with severe agency problems and weak external/internal monitoring, and those not controlled by the state. In addition, we find that CSISC acquirers have better long-term performance and encounter more M&A failures than non-CSISC acquirers. Our findings indicate that although the CSISC only holds 100 shares of listed companies, it plays an effective role in monitoring and driving firms to make appropriate M&A decisions.     

Terrorism and international economic policy

We add to the ongoing discussion regarding the policy consequences of terrorism by analyzing the effect of terrorism on international economic policy for a panel of 170 countries between 1970 and 2016. We find that countries resort to less liberal international economic policies when facing the threat of terrorism. This effect is especially relevant to smaller (less populated) countries. Our main finding is robust to an instrumental-variable approach. We argue that governments pursue less liberal international economic policies in response to terrorism to interrupt the organization and financing of terrorism, limit capital flight, stabilize public finances and signal political resolve.     

游客感知视角下乡村旅游质效提升维度研究——以西双版纳傣族园为例

发展乡村旅游是实施乡村振兴战略的重要途径，对促进乡村经济发展具有重要作用。以西双版纳傣族园为案例研究地，通过SPSS和AMOS实证探究游客感知视角下乡村旅游质效提升的维度。结果表明：游客感知视角下的乡村旅游质效提升包含旅游地感知、地方认同感、主观幸福感、环境责任行为4个维度；地方认同感和旅游地感知对乡村旅游质效提升的影响力较强，其次是主观幸福感和环境责任行为。     

Chinese investment in the Brazilian soybean sector: Navigating relations of private governance

This paper examines how Chinese agribusiness firms are engaging with established systems of private governance in the Brazilian soybean sector and how that engagement is variously accommodated, contested, and configured by local realities that reflect the uneven history of transnational agribusiness development across the Brazilian agro‐export region. Using qualitative data collected at three research sites that represent different historical moments in the Brazilian agro‐export region (Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Bahia), the paper argues that the social structures underlying the particular agrarian histories of these three subregions create unique contexts Chinese firms must navigate, which in turn shapes their engagement with the private agribusiness regime across space. Although the private agribusiness regime is often portrayed as a top‐down system of governance that subjugates the polity to the demands of capital, this framing neglects to understand how that system of power is contested, negotiated, and reshaped on the ground. These three cases serve to historicize the uneven penetration of Chinese firms across the Brazilian soybean sector.     

20世纪50—60年代的中国财政学:一个传统的移入与退出

20世纪50—60年代既是新中国财政学初建时期,也见证了苏联财政学传统移入和退出的过程。就其理论和实践来源看,苏联财政学是苏联化的马克思主义、苏联特殊年代政治实践和计划经济体制等诸多因素的混合物。虽然它在发展和创新马克思主义财政理论方面作出了首创性的贡献,但其历史局限性也不可避免。在苏联财政学移植中国之时,其中一些负面特征也参与了新中国财政学的重建,并对其后中国财政学的发展起到了长久的羁绊作用。20世纪50年代后期以来,中国财政学“去苏联化”的目标未能完全实现,这一方面源于塑造苏联财政学的思维模式仍然在当时的中国财政学界起着支配作用;另一方面在那些影响财政学发展的主要因素上,当时的中苏两国极为雷同。吸取20世纪50年代中国移植苏联财政学的历史经验和教训,对当下中国合理借鉴域外学术资源、发展和创新马克思主义财政理论,有着重要的借鉴意义。     

Migration,population aging,and income inequality in China

In this study, we examine the effects of four demographic factors, namely, birth, death, natural aging, and net migration, on population aging and income inequality in China. We use the official Chinese data and the China Household Income Project Survey data for the 2007–2013 period and apply a decomposition model based on the Shapley method. Unlike previous studies, we include migration in our decomposition model and find that natural aging is the primary factor contributing to population aging in both urban and rural areas. Further, migration may accelerate population aging in rural areas. Moreover, migration contributes to reducing income inequality in urban areas, while widening income inequality in rural areas. The effect of migration is larger than those of birth, death, and natural aging on income inequality. The robustness checks confirm these conclusions.     

Who is left behind? Exploring the characteristics of China's broadband non-adopting families

China has made significant progress in broadband development. As of September 2018, 95% of China's population was covered by 4G networks. However, our estimates show that nearly 30% of China's families did not use broadband that year. This study attempts to investigate the characteristics of China's broadband left-behind families. Overall, consistent with the findings for other countries, families with a lower socioeconomic status are more likely to be broadband non-adopters. In the information society, older, poorer, rural and less educated families are left behind. It is recommended that the Chinese government shift from a top-down investment-driven policy to a user-centered demand-driven policy to address the digital divide.