老龄化与碳排放：消费效应还是生产效应？——基于2002-2017年中国省级面板数据的实证研究

人口老龄化是经济增长的一大阻碍,它对碳排放的影响是做出环境政策抉择的关键因素.以中国2002—2017年的省级面板数据为研究样本,从理论与实证两个层面分析人口老龄化与碳排放的关系及影响机制.一方面,构建包含碳排放的世代交叠模型(overlapping generations,OLG),发现老龄化主要通过消费效应和生产效应两个路径对碳排放产生影响;另一方面,从实证层面发现老龄化与碳排放之间存在倒"U"形关系,而且消费效应在人口老龄化与碳排放的关系中起到部分中介作用,生产效应的影响则不显著.     

The long breadth of cities: revisiting worldwide urbanization patterns, 1950–2030

ABSTRACT

A comparative analysis of population dynamics worldwide contributes to profile distinctive demographic and economic trajectories of urban growth, discriminating processes of settlement concentration or dispersion under sequential cycles of urbanization. However, a wide-ranging characterization of urban cycles based on demographic dynamics worldwide is still missing. The present work is aimed at filling such a gap analysing long-term changes (1950–2030) in annual population growth rate of 1691 urban agglomerations with more than 300,000 inhabitants in 74 world countries. Results of this study indicate that metropolitan growth worldwide was associated with largely variable rates of population growth, highly positive before 2000 and progressively reducing over recent decades. Despite important differences at continental (and country) scale, demographic expansion of urban agglomerations showed two contrasting phases with a break point in the 1980s denoting a progressive reduction in spatial heterogeneity of population growth rates and a moderate slowdown in demographic dynamics. Intensity of urban expansion and spatial heterogeneity in population growth rates across metropolitan agglomerations evidences a trade-off between fast and slow demographic dynamics. These findings can be better understood to support theories of sequential city growth, making a suitable contribution to policy making, especially in countries where urban population is expanding more rapidly.     

农地权益保障与农业转移人口市民化

研究目的：明晰农地权益对农业转移人口市民化的影响，进而揭示当前全国各地对农业转移人口农地权益保护状况。研究方法：基于Probit模型的实证分析。研究结果：（1）从全国范围来看，农业转移人口的农地权益只得到部分保障；（2）农地权益保障状况存在较大的地区差异，区域经济越发达，农地权益保障越完善；（3）农地权益只得到部分保障对推动农业转移人口向城市迁移起着促进作用，但却对农业转移人口市民化有着显著负面影响。研究结论：农地权益保障是农业转移人口市民化的重要影响因素，农地权益的不充分保障对农业转移人口市民化具有负面影响，而经济越不发达的地区这种影响越显著。     

人口结构与地方政府义务教育公共支出——基于中国省级面板数据的研究

利用我国2007-2011年间31个省市地区的平衡面板数据,从供给和需求两方面出发实证分析我国义务教育公共服务支出影响因素。在影响供给的因素讨论中,考察了财政收入、财政分权程度、转移支付、政府竞争力等因素。在影响需求的因素讨论中,探讨了人口自然与非自然结构,人口家庭结构对义务教育公共服务需求的影响。最后将我国分为东部、中部、西部三个地区,进一步剖析我国义务教育公共服务支出影响因素的区际差异。     

Do pensions foster education? An empirical perspective

The paper examines the effect of population ageing on public education spending. On the one hand, ageing is expected to have a negative effect on education, as an increasing number of retirees results in ‘intergenerational conflict’ and, hence, the condemnation of education expenditure. On the other hand, ageing, in combination with pay-as-you-go pension systems, offers incentives for the working-age generation to invest in the public education of the young in order to ‘reap’ the benefits (that is, higher income tax/contributions) of their greater future productivity. Empirical evidence derived from the application of a fixed effects approach to panel data for OECD countries shows that the increasing share of elderly people has a non-linear effect on education spending. This indicates a certain degree of intergenerational conflict. Nevertheless, we find that future population ageing, which reinforces the mechanism linking public education and pensions, reflects positively on education expenditure. Furthermore, by disaggregating total education expenditure by educational levels, we observe that this effect is led by levels of non-compulsory education, probably as a reflection of the direct connection to labor productivity.     

Political budget cycles revisited: Testing the signalling process

A widespread view in the ‘political budget cycles’ literature is that incumbent politicians seek to influence voters’ perceptions of their competence and/or preferences by using the composition of the fiscal budget as a signalling tool. However, little is known about whether voters actually receive and perceive the signal in that way. To empirically assess the relevance of the signalling channel at the municipal level, we conducted a survey among 2000 representative German citizens in 2018. Only a small fraction of voters feel well-informed about the fiscal budget signal and use the information it contains to decide whether to vote for the incumbent politician. Persons paying more attention to the signal sent by local politicians live in smaller municipalities, are more satisfied with their economic situation, are more educated, and do not feel that they are being electorally manipulated. Our analysis raises doubt about the relevance of budget composition as a signalling mechanism for voters at the local level.     

论人与自然的协调发展

生态环境质量是以人与自然的协调为基础的。人类要追求生活高质量,经济高效益,必须注重环境、经济和社会三者的协调统一。     

个体差异、企业特征、制度保护与流动人口社会保险可及性——基于“福利三角”理论模型的实证研究

"福利三角"理论是现代社会政策研究的重要范式,其也可运用于经验研究。本文基于"福利三角"理论视角,从个体差异、企业特征、制度保障三个维度,利用南开大学"2013年流动人口管理和服务对策研究问卷调查"数据,对流动人口社会保险可及性及其影响因素进行实证研究。分析发现,在个体特征方面,受教育程度、工作年限等对流动人口人力资本具有关键影响的因素,企业性质、行业类型等企业特征,劳动合同、合同协商、工会等制度保障因素对流动人口社会保险可及性具有显著影响。在此基础上,应提高流动人口社会保险可及性。     

基于多源数据与GIS技术的福建省人口数据网格化

基于多源数据融合思想,以福建省第六次人口普查数据为基础,利用GIS技术,将DMSP/OLS、土地利用、DEM、MODIS等多源数据提取其像元值转入同一位置的网格中,消除多源数据位置不匹配难题,运用聚类——多元逐步回归分析构建了人口网格化模型模拟及精度检验,最后进行空间网格化表达。可为有关部门在灾情速判、区域经济发展调控、资源可持续发展等提供数据支持。     

传统生育文化对我国人口可持续发展的影响

我国的传统生育文化是在传统农业社会的经济和文化背景下产生的,现在仍然有着重要影响.为了实现我国人口的可持续发展,必须重视文化因素,推动旧的生育文化向新型生育文化转变,创造适合人口可持续发展的文化环境.