银行业联合授信制度制约企业的非效率投资了吗*——基于沪深A股公司的分析

中国银保监会出台联合授信管理制度旨在抑制企业过度融资行为，提高资金使用效率。为检验该制度是否达到预期效果，采用2014—2018年沪深A股上市公司样本，运用非平衡面板数据回归实证考察联合授信机制对企业非效率投资的影响，发现联合授信对企业的非效率投资（包含投资不足和投资过度）呈现显著抑制效应，其中联合授信对投资过度的抑制效应最大。进一步研究发现，相较于国有、大规模、低负债、高盈利等异质属性的企业，联合授信对非国有、小规模、高负债、低盈利等属性企业的非效率投资（尤其是投资过度）抑制效应更为显著。     

Best classification algorithms in peer-to-peer lending

A proper credit scoring technique is vital to the long-term success of all kinds of financial institutions, including peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms. The main contribution of our paper is the robust ranking of 10 different classification techniques based on a real-world P2P lending data set. Our data set comes from the Lending Club covering the 2009–2013 period, which contains 212,252 records and 23 different variables. Unlike other researchers, we use a data sample which contains the final loan resolution for all loans. We built our research using a 5-fold cross-validation method and 6 different classification performance measurements. Our results show that logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and linear discriminant analysis are the three best algorithms based on the Lending Club data. Conversely, we identify k-nearest neighbors and classification and regression tree as the two worst classification methods.     

Predicting credit card delinquencies: An application of deep neural networks

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it develops a prediction system to help the credit card issuer model the credit card delinquency risk. Second, it seeks to explore the potential of deep learning (also called a deep neural network), an emerging artificial intelligence technology, in the credit risk domain. With real-life credit card data linked to 711,397 credit card holders from a large bank in Brazil, this study develops a deep neural network to evaluate the risk of credit card delinquency based on the client's personal characteristics and the spending behaviours. Compared with machine-learning algorithms of logistic regression, naive Bayes, traditional artificial neural networks, and decision trees, deep neural networks have a better overall predictive performance with the highest F scores and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The successful application of deep learning implies that artificial intelligence has great potential to support and automate credit risk assessment for financial institutions and credit bureaus.     

纳税信用评级结果披露与研发投入

以纳税信用评级披露作为一个天然外生冲击,并基于2013—2016年1214家A股上市公司的微观数据构造准自然实验,使用双重差分法系统评估纳税信用评级结果披露对上市公司研发投入的影响。结果发现:纳税信用评级结果披露显著增加了上市公司的研发投入。基于PSM-DID方法的估计结果与上述结论无明显差异。稳健性检验也表明上述结论的正确性。机制检验表明,纳税信用评级结果披露通过降低企业的融资约束,进而促进企业增加研发投入。此外,分样本回归发现纳税信用评级结果披露只能对中小型企业和民营企业的研发投入产生促进作用。     

荷兰农业绿色转型经验与政策启示

[目的]与我国的农业资源禀赋条件相似,荷兰人多地少,农业资源贫乏,却是世界农业强国,其20世纪80年代开始的农业转型之路对促进我国当前农业绿色发展具有重要借鉴意义。[方法]结合实地调研与文献研究,文章梳理了荷兰40年来在农业环境治理方面的具体政策设计和实施效果,并分析了其主要经验做法及对我国发展的启示。[结果]从畜禽养殖数量控制到化学投入品控制、再到农业资源全管理,荷兰始终坚持以种养结合的可持续发展模式应对农业资源环境挑战,不断强化循环利用技术推广应用,逐步建立了严格的农业资源环境监管体系和政府支持体系,在农业污染得到有效治理的同时,依然很好地保持了国际市场竞争力。[结论]荷兰曾经面对的养殖业污染、化学品过度投入等问题也是我国当前农业环境的突出问题,其当时采取的转型思路与我们目前的绿色发展理念高度一致,借鉴荷兰经验,加快推进我国农业绿色发展,亟需创新循环农业发展模式,加强绿色发展技术支撑,建立并完善农业绿色发展制度体系,协同推进农业资源环境保护和农业竞争力提升。     

组织间学习与绿色创新:绿色吸收能力的调节作用

尽管组织间学习已经获得较多关注,但鲜有研究探讨它对绿色创新的影响。从组织间关系和双元性理论视角,提出了组织间的纵向利用式学习和横向探索式学习,基于组织学习理论和吸收能力理论,探究了两种组织间学习方式与绿色创新的关系,并检验了绿色吸收能力的调节作用。基于203家中国制造企业的调查数据,实证结果表明:纵向利用式学习和横向探索式学习都能显著正向影响绿色创新;相比横向探索式学习,纵向利用式学习对绿色创新的影响作用更强。绿色吸收能力在横向探索式学习与绿色创新之间也起调节作用,但它并不调节纵向利用式学习与绿色创新的关系。研究提出了不同的组织间学习方法与绿色创新的关系,丰富并拓展了绿色创新的相关研究。     

Do capital flows drive credit growth and consumption in Central and Eastern Europe?

Domestic credit expansion in CEE economies, fuelled in part by foreign capital inflows, helped increase household welfare before the 2008 financial crisis caused a contraction across the region. How strong are the linkages between the current account, domestic credit and consumer spending? This study compiles a quarterly dataset of domestic credit as a share of GDP for 11 CEE European Union members and isolates structural breaks in the series’ growth rates that often align with the 2008 crisis. Vector autoregressive methods, particularly impulse response functions, show that increased current-account deficits lead to increased consumption in six of the 11 countries and increased credit growth in three, and that shocks to credit growth increase consumption in six countries. Capital inflows significantly increase consumption through domestic credit in Slovenia, while the Baltics show a large share of significant effects.     

Turning green subsidies into sustainability: How green process innovation improves firms' green image

Green process innovation has been seen as a key strategy for manufacturing firms to pursue sustainable development. Yet, how to help manufacturing firms eliminate bottlenecks when implementing green process innovation remains poorly understood. To address this issue, the current study, which is anchored in the government incentive perspective, examines the drivers, contingent conditions, and consequences of green process innovation by using the panel data of manufacturing‐listed firms in China from 2013 to 2017. The results present valuable findings: (a) green subsidies are positively related to two dimensions of green process innovation, namely, cleaner production technology and end‐of‐pipe technology; (b) both cleaner production technology and end‐of‐pipe technology are positively related to firms' green image; (c) a firm's cleaner production technology mediates the relationship between green subsidies and its green image; and (d) higher absorptive capacity strengthens the indirect effect of green subsidies on a firm's green image via cleaner production technology. Our results provide meaningful theoretical and practical implications by revealing the benefits of green subsidies through green process innovation by leveraging levels of absorptive capacity.     

Then and Now: Examining Older People's Engagement in Outdoor Recreation Across the Life Course

Outdoor recreation provides a range of health and wellbeing benefits and facilitates engagement with natural environments. We explore older people's participation in outdoor recreation throughout their lives to examine how past experiences shape engagement later in life. A qualitative life history approach, consisting of semi-structured interviews and a focus group in three place-specific (urban, rural, and small town coastal) case studies in Scotland, was adopted. Thematic analysis revealed ways in which childhood experiences shaped adult engagement and highlighted life course transitions where behaviour change was most pronounced. Place and gender were considered as factors which may affect responses. Participants identified the points of getting married, becoming a parent, children entering adolescence, retirement, the onset of disabilities or ill health, and the death of others as “moments of change” in the extent and/or form of their outdoor recreation. The findings highlight potential for targeted interventions to promote outdoor recreation throughout life.     

Interenterprise Credit and Adjustment during Financial Crises: The Role of Firm Size

Small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) suffered a sharp contraction in their borrowing from banks during the Great Recession. Analyzing a large firm‐level database for European countries, the paper shows that trade credit amplified the liquidity squeeze on SMEs, with adverse effects on their real activity. SMEs sharply increased their net trade credit and thus transferred financial resources to larger firms. Given the large weight of SMEs in the economy of European countries, the liquidity squeeze of SMEs likely contributed to the depth of the output fall and the slow recovery in Europe during the Great Recession.