Institutional dynamics and access to non-farm employment in rural China, 1950–1996

This article examines non-farm employment in the context of Chinese rural institutional change, based on evidence from discrete-time logistic models for event history analysis using the Life History and Social Change survey. We find the transition to non-farm sector rose rapidly during the Great Leap Forward and market reform, while the Cultural Revolution saw it reach the lowest ebb. While male advantage prevailed exclusively during the Cultural Revolution and early marketization, education possessed a stable positive effect in all historical periods. Although the returns to different kinds of political capital vary along with institutional dynamics, intergenerational reproduction was greatly reduced after the Cultural Revolution.     

游客感知视角下乡村旅游质效提升维度研究——以西双版纳傣族园为例

发展乡村旅游是实施乡村振兴战略的重要途径，对促进乡村经济发展具有重要作用。以西双版纳傣族园为案例研究地，通过SPSS和AMOS实证探究游客感知视角下乡村旅游质效提升的维度。结果表明：游客感知视角下的乡村旅游质效提升包含旅游地感知、地方认同感、主观幸福感、环境责任行为4个维度；地方认同感和旅游地感知对乡村旅游质效提升的影响力较强，其次是主观幸福感和环境责任行为。     

“十四五”时期推进新旧动能转换的思路与策略

“十四五”时期是国际经济秩序重塑的关键期、新一轮科技革命和产业变革由孕育发展向形成高潮的关键过渡期、我国跨过高收入门槛的关键期和改革攻坚的关键时期,也是我国新旧动能接续转换的关键时期。加快新旧动能转换对于促进经济持续稳定健康增长、抢占新一轮科技革命机遇和实现高质量发展等意义重大,是我国转换发展方式、调整经济结构、建设现代化经济体系和实现体制机制转型的重要途径。必须深化对新旧动能转换内涵和特征的认识,厘清思路,明确新旧动能转换重点;深化体制机制改革,激发新旧动能转换活力;培育主体,做优做强一批新旧动能转换领军企业和优质中小企业;加快集群建设,形成一批新旧动能转换高地;创新优化要素支撑,夯实新旧动能转换基础;提升对外开放水平,拓展新旧动能转换空间。     

农业绿色发展路径及其“十四五”取向

随着农业资源环境问题的凸显,绿色发展成为农业发展的主流。基于对农业绿色发展关键要素的界定,提出农业绿色发展的三个阶段:去污,即农业生产过程的清洁化;提质,实现产地绿色化和产品优质化;增效,绿色成为农业高质量发展的内生动力。近年来,农业绿色发展取得了一定成就,但也存在政策分散、数据基础不牢、农业补贴制度改革进展缓慢、行政执法“一刀切”等问题。“十四五”时期,应以绿色发展驱动农业高质量发展,通过抓落实提高政策实效;注重摸清家底,摒弃部分无数据支撑的量化目标;加强对执法和行政的督察巡查,对政策执行过失加大问责力度;不断深化农业支持保护制度,向绿色生态方向改革。     

农村新业态发展现状、问题与对策研究

近年来,农村新业态快速发展,成为农村经济发展的新动能。文章在介绍农村新业态发展现状的基础上,剖析了当前存在的顶层设计不清晰、要素制约突出、水平有待提升以及规范化不足等系列问题;结合乡村振兴战略全面实施带来的新机遇,提出要强化顶层设计、优化发展环境、加快转型提质、加大监管力度等政策建议,加快促进农村新业态健康有序发展。     

价值共创引导乡村旅游价值链重构

［目的］通过充分发挥移动互联时代消费者对于价值链、创新链、产业链构建的作用，实现价值共创视角下乡村旅游价值链的重构，解决乡村旅游产业中消费者需求和产业供给不平衡不充分之间的矛盾，推动乡村旅游高效、有序、协调、综合发展。［方法］基于价值共创理论，通过文献研究法和系统论方法，探索性重构乡村旅游价值链。［结果］（1）价值共创引导下的乡村旅游价值链是由基本价值活动、辅助价值活动和价值共创活动共同组成，通过虚拟价值链和传统价值链的互动与融合，实现乡村旅游价值链的新价值创造。（2）价值共创活动是以虚拟价值链为基本特征，以“产消者”创新社区为表现形式，依托移动互联网时代的先进技术，创新性赋予旅游者产品生产者和旅游消费者的“产消者”双重属性，通过将消费者从传统价值链的幕后拉向幕前，实现乡村旅游价值链重构和价值增值。［结论］价值共创引导的乡村旅游价值链需要依托平台思维、共享思维和创新思维进行建设，以消费者需求为导向形成的价值链的开放和互动对于实现乡村旅游供给侧结构性改革具有重大意义。     

乡村森林旅游项目规划中哲学元素运用的个案分析——以宜春市月都花溪谷项目为例

以江西省宜春市"月都花溪谷"乡村森林旅游项目规划中哲学元素的应用为个案,结合哲学理论进行分析。结果表明:乡村森林旅游项目规划应有哲学的自觉,根据项目所在地自然和人文资源禀赋,因地制宜地吸收哲学元素,从而打破乡村森林旅游项目同质化和见物不见人的困局,赋予乡村森林旅游项目以特色和灵魂。因此,提出突破森林旅游项目规划中一元化的经济思维定势、以哲学思维唤起人学意义、因地制宜激发内生式哲学文化活性等启发性建议。     

Probabilistic access forecasting for improved offshore operations

Improving access is a priority in the offshore wind sector, driven by the opportunity to increase revenues, reduce costs, and improve safety at operational wind farms. This paper describes a novel method for producing probabilistic forecasts of safety-critical access conditions during crew transfers. Methods of generating density forecasts of significant wave height and peak wave period are developed and evaluated. It is found that boosted semi-parametric models outperform those estimated via maximum likelihood, as well as a non-parametric approach. Scenario forecasts of sea-state variables are generated and used as inputs to a data-driven vessel motion model, based on telemetry recorded during 700 crew transfers. This enables the production of probabilistic access forecasts of vessel motion during crew transfer up to 5 days ahead. The above methodology is implemented on a case study at a wind farm off the east coast of the UK.     

基于乡村振兴战略的湖南省乡村治理体系研究

［目的］乡村治理有效作为实施乡村振兴战略的五大战略总要求之一和重要组成部分，对其进行分析有利于完善农村现代化建设以及促进乡村振兴战略的实施。［方法］文章以湖南省为例，采用问卷调查法和Logistic回归模型法对乡村治理体系进行分析，探讨影响区域乡村治理体系的主要因素。［结果］被调查农户的年龄主要集中在30~60岁，年收入主要集中在1万元以上。进而结合Logistic回归模型可知：社区生活组织、村规民约、农村养老服务设施、留守儿童之家、集中性治丧场所以及村务公开等6个变量对乡村治理体系的开展实施正向显著影响，而年龄对乡村治理体系的开展负向影响。［结论］基于乡村振兴战略发展乡村治理体系主要在于创新乡村治理体系，通过分析影响湖南省乡村治理体系的因素，为乡村有效治理提供参考意见，同时充分发挥乡村治理功能实现乡村振兴战略的全面实施。     

中国农业农村发展七十年:成就、经验与展望——中国农业经济学会第十次会员代表大会暨2019年学术研讨会综述

2019 is the 70 th anniversary of the founding of the people’s Republic of China and the key year for implementing the rural vitalization strategy.Summarizing the great achievements made by agriculture and rural areas in the past 70 years will have an important theoretical value for promoting the modernization of agriculture and rural areas and the strategy of rural revitalization.Under such circumstances,the 10 th member congress and 2019 academic seminar of CAAE was successfully held in Beijing.The key to promote rural revitalization lies in deepening rural reform,focus on the property right system and market-oriented allocation of factors,and establish a system and mechanism of free circulation and equal exchange between urban and rural areas.In order to promote the organic connection between small-scale peasant and the modern agriculture,it is necessary to speed up the development of agriculture social service industry.Finally,it is suggested to adhere to the two-wheel drive of rural revitalizationand new urbanization,promote the effective coverage of rural public services,and improve the rural governance mode of combining autonomy,rules of law and virtue.