通胀目标制与汇率目标制不能共存吗

基于汇率传递的风险溢价渠道，本文将我国利率调控通胀、外汇储备对冲干预汇率纳入新凯恩斯政策模型，构建双目标双工具政策分析框架，比较泰勒规则与双目标双工具规则下通胀目标与汇率目标共存的经济机制与效应。本文模拟显示：（1）双目标双工具政策框架下通胀目标与汇率目标能够共存，此时通过影响汇率风险溢价来盯住汇率不影响通胀；而单工具政策下两目标无法共存，此时降低国内资产的收益率盯住汇率会刺激居民的消费行为引起通胀。（2）国际资本冲击下，双目标双工具政策在固定汇率的同时能保证经济稳定；而当贸易条件恶化时，选择完全浮动汇率制度最优。央行政策损失分析进一步验证了以上结论。（3）随着金融市场化改革深入，外汇储备稳定汇率的有效性将下降，冲销成本会大幅提升。资本账户开放下，双目标双工具政策仍是央行抵御外部资本冲击的首选政策；但是汇率市场化后，通胀目标制与双目标双工具政策效果基本无差异。本文结论的启示是：面对国际资本，需必要的汇率管制；但是面对贸易冲击，可适度提升汇率弹性来减少冲击对产出和通胀的影响。     

就业结构调整对水库移民土地流转的影响研究*——以南水北调中线工程移民为例

[目的]为促进水库移民的生计恢复及转型,探寻就业结构和土地流转间的交互机制,分析两者间耦合作用对当前移民安置模式及政策的影响。[方法]文章从移民就业结构变迁出发,通过超边际理论构建了安置区移民土地的流转机制模型,推演了从业决策对土地流转行为的影响路径,并运用南水北调农业安置移民数据进行实证检验。[结果]大面积转出土地是移民搬迁后土地处置的主要行为,移民中土地转入户有所增加,但土地集中度却有所减少。移民非农就业较搬迁前有明显上升,并有向当地兼业转移的趋势,但与土地流转间并不互为因果,农村社保还难以弱化其对土地养老的依赖。劳动力数量、非农就业时间、非农收入占比、土地政策等对移民土地流转行为和规模均有显著影响,而外出就业前景和地租水平在促进土地流转行为的同时,却不一定能增加土地流转面积。[结论]移民外迁中可以采用无土安置代替农业安置,推动移民土地流转的关键在于技能培训、政策保障和地租补贴,简单的就业推荐和土地权属划分的作用有限。而对于移民中的农业大户,则需在满足土地转入面积的基础上,保障其在安置区的各项土地权益。     

Why has China’s vertical specialization declined?

Vertical specialization (VS) is quantified by the VS share, which measures the average import content per dollar of exports. A characteristic of China’s export trade is its strong dependence on assembly and processing activities. To take proper account of this, China’s VS shares should explicitly distinguish processing export production from other production. We estimate China’s annual VS shares from 2000 to 2012—the latest year for which a special input–output table is available that makes such an explicit distinction. We find that VS shares increased from 2000 to 2004 and subsequently started to decrease. To explore why it has declined, we introduce a new structural decomposition approach. We find that the decrease of the VS share appears to have been driven mainly by the substitution of imported intermediates by domestic products. This occurred in particular in the production of exports, which implies an upgrading of China’s position in global value chains.     

Crowdsourcing-based semantic relation recognition for natural language questions over RDF data

ABSTRACT

Natural language query systems over RDF data need to rely on the semantic relations in query. First, we propose the new crowdsourcing model that used to produce semantic relations dataset. The model not only inherits completeness of the iterative model and accuracy of the parallel model, but also saves human resources. Second, we mine the rules of semantic relation recognition from the correlations between dependency structures and semantic relations. Third, we propose an algorithm of semantic relation recognition for natural language query over RDF data, and experiments demonstrate that it can recognize more semantic relations than existing methods.     

中国新能源汽车产业创新系统功能演化研究--兼论政府措施的作用

新能源汽车产业是中国重点发展的七大战略性新兴产业之一,剖析其创新系统的发展与完善过程,识别发展过程中的影响因素,并了解政府在这一演化过程中如何进行介入和引导,对新能源汽车以及其他新兴产业的发展具有重要的理论与实践价值。本文以创新系统功能理论为基础,构建了针对中国新能源汽车产业创新系统演化分析的功能框架,剖析了中国新能源汽车产业创新系统功能体系的发展与完善过程,同时讨论了政府措施在这一过程中的引导与支撑作用。研究发现,中国新能源汽车产业创新体系正处于快速完善阶段,知识获取、产业制度体系建设等功能已经成熟,而基础设施与支撑平台建设、产业链整合与升级以及正向外部性创造等功能仍有待于进一步完善。同时发现,这一过程中政府采取的各种措施与产业发展过程中遇到的阻碍因素密切相关,措施的类型与着力点也随着各种阻碍因素的出现不断变化,发挥了积极的引导作用。     

Resource conflict detection and removal strategy for nondeterministic emergency response processes using Petri nets

Correctness of an emergency response process specification is critical to emergency mission success. Therefore, errors in the specification should be detected and corrected at build-time. In this paper, we propose a resource conflict detection approach and removal strategy for emergency response processes constrained by resources and time. In this kind of emergency response process, there are two timing functions representing the minimum and maximum execution time for each activity, respectively, and many activities require resources to be executed. Based on the RT_ERP_Net, the earliest time to start each activity and the ideal execution time of the process can be obtained. To detect and remove the resource conflicts in the process, the conflict detection algorithms and a priority-activity-first resolution strategy are given. In this way, real execution time for each activity is obtained and a conflict-free RT_ERP_Net is constructed by adding virtual activities. By experiments, it is proved that the resolution strategy proposed can shorten the execution time of the whole process to a great degree.     

涉农贷款中新担保措施的合法性及有效性分析

为防范涉农贷款违约风险,部分农村信用联社积极探索,创新出债权文书公证方式、以人身险保险金担保债权等担保方式,以确保债权得到切实维护.这些新担保方式一定程度上增加了农村贷款供给,但存在法律风险.本文着重对这些新措施、新方法的合法性及有效性进行了探讨.     

基于灰熵模型的大型工程项目供应商评价研究

针对大型工程的特点,建立供应商综合评价指标体系;将灰熵理论应用于大型工程供应商的评价,建立了基于灰熵理论的供应商综合评价模型。通过实例分析表明,灰熵模型对于大型工程项目供应商的评价客观有效,能够为大型工程供应商的选择提供科学依据。     

计量体系的建设与应用

计量体系包括标准的建设及以技术为手段的计量管理。标准是衡量质量高低的基本依据,各项标准的实施,又要以相应的计量检测和科学的计量管理为技术手段和管理基础。企业计量体系运行的成功与否,直接关系到产品质量结果的控制。经过陕西省质量技术监督初审和2次复查考核,2008年1月份,建标申请经考核合格后获得了授权,并于2月份,压力类强检仪表也获得了对内强检资质。长庆油田分公司第二采气厂计量体系的建设与运行步入正规化、运行基本实现了专业化。     

资产证券化在物流行业的应用

资产证券化对于优化金融资源配置、盘活存量资金、支持实体经济发展具有重要意义,在宏观经济环境下行和金融机构综合化经营不断深化的大背景下,物流行业从自身业务结构转型调整角度出发,不断加强在资产证券化领域方面的探索,正在逐渐演化出新的模式。立足物流企业视角,总结和分析了我国资产证券化业务的发展历程、业务发展现状及存在的问题,在借鉴国际先进经验的基础上指出资产证券化业务开展的关键影响因素,并提出我国物流行业资产证券化的相关建议和对策。