Inflation-inflation uncertainty nexus in Iran——Using TARCH model

This paper examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Iran economy using monthly data of Iran over the period 1990-2009. TARCH model is used to peruse the stochastic variation and asymmetries in the economic instruments. The result indicates that there is a positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Also, the authors investigate from the Granger causality test that inflation is Granger causality of inflation uncertainty.     

中国股票市场波动非对称性的行为金融学解释

本文采用EGARCH与TARCH模型,以2003年6月30日至2008年6月27日的上证综指和深证综指日收益率为研究样本,对中国股票市场价格波动的非对称效应进行了检验,证实了中国股票市场存在对信息反应的不平衡,即:"利空消息"对股票价格的冲击大于"利多消息"对股票价格的冲击。鉴于国内研究对这种不对称的解释仅限于宏观层面,本文基于行为金融学理论,从投资者非理性行为出发,研究得出投资者的损失厌恶与反应过度的认知偏差是导致其对"利空消息"反应过度的根本原因。     

Trading Volume and Market Volatility: Developed versus Emerging Stock Markets

We investigate the relation between volatility and volume in 22 developed markets and 27 emerging markets. Compared to developed markets, emerging markets show a greater response to large information shocks and exhibit greater sensitivity to unexpected volume. We find a negative relation between expected volume and volatility in several emerging markets, which can be attributed to the relative inefficiency in those markets. Previous research reports that the persistence in volatility is not eliminated when lagged or contemporaneous trading volume is considered. Our findings show that, when volume is decomposed into expected and unexpected components, volatility persistence decreases.     

A Review of Theoretical Results for ARCH-type Models

This paper provides a review of some theoretical results for ARCH-type models, and is directed towards practitioners. Starting with the simple ARCH model and proceeding to the GARCH model, various ARCH-type models, including exponential GARCH, threshold ARCH, ARCH-in-Mean and multivariate ARCH are reviewed.     

上海银行间同业拆放利率市场波动性实证研究

采用非对称的TARCH模型,从实证的角度分析了利好消息和利空消息对上海银行间同业拆放利率的非对称影响。得出上海银行间同业拆放利率具有杠杆效应的结论。     

香港恒指期货与沪深300股指期货间的关联性研究

通过对香港恒指期货及其股票指数、沪深300仿真期货及其指教的日数据(07.1-09.8)和5分钟数据(09.5-09.7)分别进行TARCH建模、Granger因果检验,得到其之间的关联性扣传导机制,并将香港股指期货与沪深300仿真期货进行波动溢出效应分析,为我国是否应该实行股指期货提出合理意见.     

信息对股票收益率波动非对称性影响的研究

分别采用TARCH和EGARCH模型，从实证的角度分析了上海股市收益率的波动特征，验证了信息对股票收益率非对称性的影响，并指出了杠杆效应的存在。     

对上证指数波动性的实证分析

股票价格频繁波动是股票市场中最明显的特征之一。ARCH类模型可以成功的预测金融资产收益的方差。通过对我国股价指数的统计描述,表明我国金融资产收益率存在自回归条件异方差,并表现出非正态性。并且应用GARCH、TARCH、EGARCH模型理论,进一步分析了日收益率波动的条件异方差性、非对称性。     

经济波动对经济增长的减损效应:中国的经验证据

本文在简单文献回顾的基础上,利用GARCH和TARCH-M模型分析了中国经济波动对经济长期增长水平的影响.得出:对外开放和市场化改革不仅提高了中国经济的长期增长水平,而且也降低了经济增长的波动风险;中国经济波动对长期经济增长具有减损效应,但统计上并不显著,同时,与Stilianos et al.(2004)的分析结论相一致,中国经济波动对经济增长的减损效应在经济波动的不同阶段具有明显的对称效应.本文的政策含义是,继续扩大对外开放和深化市场化改革,加强宏观调控,对保持中国经济的持续稳定增长无疑具有非常重要的意义.