科学与技术耦合效果评价——科技互补效应和成本效应分析

考虑到当前创新环境日益复杂化，科学与技术耦合系统已成为一个受系统内外因共同影响而发生演化的开放系统。在为耦合系统构建状态空间模型的基础上，通过求解该模型，刻画科学技术化强度和技术科学化强度，据此分析科学与技术互动产生的互补效应和成本效应，评价29个省份的科学与技术耦合效果，并测度地区科技发展所属耦合路径类型。研究表明，不同省份推进科学技术化进程和技术科学化进程的差异性显著；科学与技术耦合效果最佳并不能说明地区科技发展速度最快；绝大多数省份的科技耦合路径表现为科技中立路径，占比最小的路径为技术强势路径。基于不同省份的耦合情况差异，提出针对性建议。     

基于状态空间模型的政产学研资协同创新四螺旋影响因素实证研究

在三螺旋理论框架下，搭建政府、产业、大学、研究机构和资本部门四螺旋模型，运用文献归纳法选取多元主体协同创新6类影响因素，以主体间协同程度测度结果为因变量基础，利用状态空间模型动态分析这些因素影响方向、大小和趋势。实证结果表明，中国经济因素表现为促进作用持续提升；中国技术市场规模和创新产业规模表现为先抑制后促进，且促进作用不断提升；中国产品市场需求和创新投入表现为抑制作用持续提升；中国创新产出在时间上表现为促进作用先提升后下降并最终稳定的状态。最后，提出不同政策建议，以促进中国政产学研资协同创新体系后续发展。     

Factor state–space models for high-dimensional realized covariance matrices of asset returns

We propose a dynamic factor state–space model for high-dimensional covariance matrices of asset returns. It makes use of observed risk factors and assumes that the latent integrated joint covariance matrix of the assets and the factors is observed through their realized covariance matrix with a Wishart measurement density. For the latent integrated covariance matrix of the assets we impose a strict factor structure allowing for dynamic variation in the covariance matrices of the factors and the residual components as well as in the factor loadings. This factor structure translates into a factorization of the Wishart measurement density which facilitates statistical inference based on simple Bayesian MCMC procedures making the approach scalable w.r.t. the number of assets. An empirical application to realized covariance matrices for 60 NYSE traded stocks using the Fama–French factors and sector-specific factors represented by Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) shows that the model performs very well in- and out of sample.     

What do professional forecasters actually predict?

This paper studies what professional forecasters predict. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into trend, business cycle, and irregular components. We examine which components are captured by professional forecasters by regressing their forecasts on the estimated components extracted from both the spectral analysis and the state space model. For both decomposition methods, we find that, in the short run, the Survey of Professional Forecasters can predict almost all of the variation in the time series due to the trend and the business cycle, but that the forecasts contain little or no significant information about the variation in the irregular component.     

Philanthropic giving of China’s hotel firms: The roles of state ownership,corporate misconduct and executive remuneration

This study utilizes value enhancement theory, agency cost theory and crisis management theory to scrutinize the philanthropic giving (PG) of China’s listed hotel companies from 2003 to 2018. The results of dynamic panel regression tests reveal that state ownership (company character), corporate misconduct (crisis management determinant) and executive remuneration (agency cost determinant) are influential factors in hotel firms’ PG, but none of the value enhancement determinants can explain PG. Specifically, state ownership is negatively correlated with PG, reflecting low PG in government dominated hotel firms in China. PG is negatively associated with executive remuneration, indicating that hotel managers care more about self-interest than social responsibility. PG is also positively related to corporate misconduct, suggesting that hotel firms use philanthropy to manage a crisis. Finally, the lagged PG has a positive effect on PG, implying that PG is intended to avoid damage to social image and reputation of China’s hotel firms.     

CEO compensation in EU telecom companies: Does the state design the right incentives?

This paper analyzes the structure of CEO pay in European fixed telecommunication companies, focusing on the impact of state ownership. Results show that, under the (partial or total) control of the state, the level of CEO compensation is lower and pay-performance sensitivity is higher than in privately-controlled firms. This finding suggests the state provides an incentive as well as a monitoring effect. However, when the state holds the majority of the shares, the pay level is significantly affected by the CEO power, suggesting that in these firms, CEOs are more likely to be entrenched with boards and succeed in raising their pay.     

Internationalization speed and subsidiary survival of EMNCs: The moderating roles of CEO international experience and state ownership

In the process of internationalization, effective management of dispersed location-specific knowledge is the key to successful internationalization strategies for companies. Rapid internationalization often prevents multinational corporations (MNCs) from absorbing and internalizing internationalized knowledge in a timely manner and achieving ideal performance. Compared with MNCs in developed countries, emerging market multinationals (EMNCs) are more inclined to implement a rapid internationalization strategy to enhance their own competitive advantage. However, their internationalization process is limited by their lack of managerial resources. Why and how would internationalization speed impact the survival of EMNCs Subsidiary? Using the survival analysis method and taking the Chinese A-share listed companies as empirical setting, our results show that the internationalization speed negatively affects the survival of EMNCs Subsidiary; Both CEO international experience and state ownership weaken the negative impact of internationalization speed on the survival of EMNCs Subsidiary. We argue that rapid internationalization underestimates the Penrose effect in the process of internationalization, that is, underestimates the managerial resources required to learn and accumulate absorptive capacity, and effectively manage dispersed knowledge. Based on the dual context of dispersed knowledge management and managerial constraints, this paper expands the understanding of the impact mechanism of internationalization speed on corporate performance, and also has certain guiding significance for the selection of internationalization speed of EMNCs.     

国铁企业市场化经营机制建设探讨

建立市场化经营机制是深化铁路改革的重要方向,也是提升企业核心竞争力的迫切需要。在分析国铁企业市场化经营现状及面临问题的基础上,提出国铁企业建立市场化经营机制的总体思路,即理顺国铁企业与政府部门、国铁企业与市场、国铁集团与所属企业3个方面的关系,从进一步落实国铁企业市场主体地位、建立铁路公益性运输补贴机制、加强铁路基础设施网络建设、提升铁路运输服务质量和水平、推进铁路客货运价市场化改革、着力提升国铁资本运作能力、推进国铁资本授权经营体制改革、完善国铁现代企业制度建设等方面阐述国铁企业建立市场化经营机制的重点任务,为深化铁路改革提供参考。     

The legacy of state socialism on attitudes toward immigration

Does the politico–economic system affect preferences for immigration? In this study, I show that individuals exposed to life under state socialism have formed and persistently hold different attitudes toward immigration. By exploiting the division and reunification of Germany, I estimate the influence of state socialism on attitudes toward immigration. Drawing on rich individual panel data, I find that East Germans who lived under state socialism, are 15 percent more likely to oppose immigration than West Germans who spent their entire life in a democratic, capitalist country. This difference in attitudes toward immigration is persistent over time and across space, and largest for cohorts born and raised under state socialism. This gap in attitudes can be traced back to a longer-term deterioration in trust. Evidence from members of a group that opposed the authoritarian system highlights the importance of state socialist ideology for attitude formation.     

Crony capitalism,the party-state,and the political boundaries of corruption

We build a model that puts together crony capitalism, the hierarchy of the Chinese communist party-state, and the decision-making process inside the Party Center. We show that inefficient economic institutions create local corruption that raises realized productivity, while generating rents that flow along the party-state hierarchy up to the provincial level, threatening the Center’s control in potential crises. Although both stronger crisis control and higher economic performance help the Center’s goal to stay in power, we show that given a general fat-tailed risk of crisis, the Center will maximize crisis control at the expense of the economy when choosing its tolerance of local corruption. Power structure and corruption within the Center and reciprocal accountability between central and provincial leaders are also analyzed. Our analysis suggests conditions under which China’s communist regime will or will not deal with the existential threat presented by corruption.