税率锚定效应与企业投资决策

已有文献证实了高管过度自信等非理性因素对企业投资决策的影响,但尚未有文献研究锚定心理在投资决策中的作用。税收政策连续性不足会使得企业实际税率充满不确定性,高管在预测未来实际税率时很可能会非理性地锚定当期的高税率,进而产生税率锚定行为。本文研究这种非理性的税率锚定行为对企业投资决策的影响,结果发现:企业投资决策中存在显著的税率锚定行为,对高税率的锚定显著降低了企业未来的投资支出,且内在锚效应(纵向对比)强于外在锚效应(横向对比)。进一步地,我们发现经验更丰富的高管有助于缓解投资中的税率锚定效应,但更大的税率波动性加剧了这种效应,最终降低了公司业绩和价值。本文研究表明,控制投资中的税率锚定行为,有利于提高投资效率和企业价值,同时也表明保持宏观税收政策连续性有利于促进企业健康可持续发展。     

Do tax incentives affect investment quality?

This paper examines the effect of tax incentives in the form of bonus depreciation on investment quality. Using the expiration of tax incentives via bonus depreciation in eastern Germany and a representative panel of West German establishments, we show that bonus depreciation significantly lowers investment quality. The average quality of investments, measured by the responsiveness of future revenue and other proxies for cash flow to current investment, reduces by 15.2–23.8% in the short run and 31.8–41.4% in the long run. Our research suggests that this adverse effect of tax subsidies is greater for jurisdictions with higher tax rates, in times of high unemployment, and for large or low-productivity establishments. Overall, while increasing investment quantity, as shown by prior literature, tax incentives such as bonus depreciation substantially reduce the quality of investments.     

To Invest or not to Invest: A real options approach to FDIs and tax competition

Foreign investment decisions of firms are often characterized by investment irreversibility, uncertainty, and the ability to choose the optimal timing of foreign investments. We embed these characteristics into a real option theory framework to analyze international competition among countries to attract mobile investments when firms, after the investment is sunk, can shift profit to low tax countries by transfer pricing. We find that an increase in the uncertainty of profit income reduces the equilibrium tax rates, whilst lower investment costs or larger profits, counteracts the negative fiscal externality of tax competition leading to higher equilibrium tax rates. JEL Code H25     

Determinants of Regional Investment Decisions in China: An Econometric Model of Tax Incentive Policy

This paper examines whether concessionary tax rates and tax incentives can attract foreign direct investment (FDI) into certain designated areas in China. Since China opened its doors to foreign investors in 1979, tax benefits have been used extensively to attract FDI into different areas. In 1991, a new tax law was introduced which superseded two previous income tax laws. This new law provides additional tax benefits which improve the investment environment for foreign investors. This study investigates the effect of China's tax rates and tax incentive policy on FDI and on the locational choices of foreign firms. Our empirical results indicate that tax rates and incentives are important determinants of regional investment decisions in China, after controlling for potential confounding variables covering infrastructure, unemployment rate, wage rate and agglomeration economics. Specifically, areas offering lower tax rates and increased tax incentives are found to attract greater amounts of FDI. The impetus of the tax effect on FDI is more apparent in the post-1991 period due to changes in the tax laws. Our results also suggest that infrastructure variables are important determinants of regional investment decisions.     

Tax policies and agency costs

We show that when large corporations are subject to a different tax system than smaller firms, the agency cost of under- and overinvestment is significantly altered. In contrast to the findings in the literature, the gap between the first- and second-best investment trigger prices do not move in lockstep with variations in the corporate tax rate, as in the case of a linear tax system. We show that the gap can either widen or shrink, depending on the tax policy design and regime. In addition, we find that the agency cost under a progressive tax regime is considerably larger than the agency cost under a regressive tax regime when equityholders have to bear all the investment costs. These results are reversed when managers have the ability to issue additional debt to finance the firm's expansion and transfer part of the investment costs to bondholders.     

增值税转型、产权特征与企业投资

以产权特征为视角,实证分析了增值税转型对不同企业的影响.研究发现:增值税转型增加了企业投资规模;国有企业投资规模显著高于民营企业;中央国企和地方国企投资均明显增加,二者差异在统计上不显著.政府干预程度较高地区的地方国企投资规模显著高于干预程度较低地区.此外,增值税转型使得国有企业长期回报率明显低于民营企业.     

Taxation and Foreign Direct Investment: A Synthesis of Empirical Research

This paper reviews the empirical literature on the impact of company taxes on the allocation of foreign direct investment. We compare the outcomes of 25 empirical studies by computing the tax rate elasticity under a uniform definition. The median value of the tax rate elasticity in the literature is around –3.3 (i.e. a 1%-point reduction in the host-country tax rate raises foreign direct investment in that country by 3.3%). There exists substantial variation across studies, however. By performing a meta-analysis, the paper aims to explain this variation by the differences in characteristics of the underlying studies. Systematic differences between studies are found with respect to the type of foreign capital data used, and the type of tax rates adopted. We find no systematic differences in the responsiveness of investors from tax credit countries and tax exemption countries.     

The impact of tax enforcement on corporate investment efficiency: evidence from the tax administration information system

Information technology is essential in tax enforcement. This study found that stronger tax enforcement after the tax administration information system reform improved corporate investment efficiency by reducing excessive investment expenditures. The effect is more significant under higher local government fiscal pressure, poorer external information environments, weaker external corporate governance, and stronger tax avoidance motivation. The main mechanism is based on the quality of the accounting information. This study enriches the literature on the economic consequences of tax enforcement and adds investment efficiency as an influential factor, which provides implications for international governments to use information technology to strengthen tax enforcement.     

Share values, inflation, and escalating tax rates

The interaction of inflation with a progressive tax system has been known to cause tax rates, and thus tax liabilities, to escalate with nominal income. Often blamed for having undesirable effects on investment and wealth, this feature of modern tax systems has not received formal treatment in the literature. The present study examines the impact of this inflation-related phenomenon upon the value of corporate equity within the framework of partial equilibrium. It is shown that the combination of moderate inflation and a mildly progressive rate structure may have a substantial adverse effect on share values, an effect sharply increasing with the firm's real growth rate. These results provide a partial explanation for the apparent conflict between the Fisherian hypothesis and the commonly observed inverse relationship between the rate of inflation and the deflated value of stock price indices. To the extent that occasional adjustment of tax schedules does not prevent taxpayers from being pushed toward higher tax brackets, these results suggest a sizable potential benefit from full indexation of tax rates in an economy suffering from chronic inflation. They also confirm the belief that failure to do so is expecially harmful to economic growth.     

Optimal taxation and top incomes

In many high-income countries over the past three decades there has been both large growth in inequality of wages and income and a shift in the burden of taxation from the top to the middle of the income distribution. A literature has developed which focuses on optimal tax rates for the top 1 % of the income distribution. In contrast, this paper considers the effect of inequality growth on the structure of a piecewise linear tax system defined over the entire income distribution. Our results suggest that the appropriate response to the increases in inequality would have been a shift towards a tax system with a lower tax rate in the lower half of the distribution together with a highly marginal rate progressive structure in the upper half, a clear differentiation between the top 10 % and the top 1 % and a higher top tax rate. Further inequality growth strengthens these characteristics of the optimal tax structure.     

税收饶让与延期纳税对ODI作用的比较研究

税收饶让与延期纳税对ODI的作用问题,一直是跨国投资研究的重要课题。实证检验分析的结果表明,税收饶让能弥补我国在抵免法下ODI激励不足的状况,但与同样实行抵免法却不提供饶让的美国相比,未体现出优势。究其原因,延期纳税对ODI也存在一定的激励作用。通过分析比较税收饶让与延期纳税的作用机理,我国现阶段促进ODI的税收政策重点应放在税收饶让上。     

A partial race to the bottom: corporate tax developments in emerging and developing economies

This paper assembles a new dataset on corporate income tax regimes in 50 emerging and developing economies over 1996–2007 and analyzes their impact on corporate tax revenues and domestic and foreign investment. It computes effective tax rates to take account of special regimes, such as tax holidays, temporarily reduced rates and increased investment allowances. There is evidence of a partial race to the bottom: countries have been under pressure to lower tax rates in order to lure and boost investment. In the case of standard tax systems (i.e. tax rules applying under normal circumstances), the effective tax rate reductions have not been larger than those witnessed in advanced economies, and revenues have held up well over the sample period. However, a race to the bottom is evident among special regimes, most notably in the case of Africa, creating effectively a parallel tax system where rates have fallen to almost zero. Regression analysis reveals higher tax rates adversely affect domestic investment and FDI, but do raise revenues in the short run.     

Taxes and production: The case of Pakistan

This paper investigates the effectiveness of investment incentives and corporate income taxes in influencing production and investment decisions in the Pakistani wearing apparel and leather products industries. Three tax instruments are considered: the corporate income tax (CIT), the investment tax credit (ITC), and the capital cost allowance (CCA).The results show that since there are significant capital adjustment costs, it is important to distinguish between the short, intermediate, and long-run effects associated with the tax instruments. Production decisions are relatively more responsive to changes in the ITC rate compared to changes in either CCA or CIT rates in each run. However, only in the long run for the apparel industry are the ITC and CCA rates cost effective in stimulating investment. The CIT is never cost effective. Thus targeted instruments outperform the general CIT instrument. In addition, although the incentive to invest is enhanced, there is little effect on output. Therefore, tax incentives essentially make production techniques more capital intensive.     

环保税会倒逼企业升级吗?——基于创新投入中介效应的分析

本文以2013~2018年我国沪深A股重污染上市企业数据为研究样本,检验了环保税对企业升级的影响以及创新投入在二者之间的中介效应。研究表明,环保税通过提高企业创新投入促进企业升级,并且这种关系主要存在于民营企业样本中。进一步检验表明,相对于中西部地区,东部地区环保税对企业升级的促进作用更为显著。对此,本文提出改进环保税激励机制,依据企业差异调整环保税税率,适时调整地区间环保税政策等建议。     

不同投资模式下公司避税效应的非对称性研究——基于双阶差分模型的实证检验

运用双阶差分模型探究了并购与新建投资模式下公司避税效应的非对称性,并进一步从事后的视角探究该非对称性是否是影响企业投资模式选择的显著影响因素。研究发现：相比于新建投资,并购增加了收购方会计利润应税所得差异,且实质性地降低了其所得税实际有效税率,这表明不同投资模式下公司避税效应存在理论预期的非对称性。进一步研究发现,改变企业会计利润应税所得差异以及会计利润应税所得操纵程度是影响企业投资模式选择的重要因素。从事后的视角来看,企业很可能为了获取更大程度的公司避税效应而选择并购行为。     

Causes,benefits, and risks of business tax incentives

This paper provides an updated overview of tax incentives for business investment. It argues that tax competition is likely to be a major force driving countries’ tax reforms, and discusses tax incentives as a possible response to this. This is complemented by more detailed arguments for and against tax incentives, and by an illustrative analysis of different incentives using effective tax rates. Findings from the empirical literature on tax incentives are also presented. Based on the overview of theoretical and empirical findings, the paper then suggests a matrix of criteria to determine the usefulness of different tax incentives depending on a country’s circumstances.     

The effect of investment tax incentives: evidence from China’s value-added tax reform

We estimate the impact of investment tax credit on firm fixed investment in a difference-in-differences-in-differences framework, using China’s 2004 value-added tax reform pilot that introduces a permanent 17%-tax credit for fixed investment in six industries in the Northeastern region. The tax credit raises significantly fixed investment of eligible firms by 28% on average during 2004–2007 relative to 2001–2003, corresponding to a user cost elasticity of 1.84. The tax incentive has larger effects on firms that are less financially constrained such as smaller firms and firms with a larger cash flow. The result is largely driven by responses of domestic private firms and is robust to specifications addressing the issue of anticipation.     

The effect of leverage on the tax-cut versus investment-subsidy argument

Two common methods of attracting corporate investment are investment incentives and tax incentives. It is important to use the two incentives in the correct proportions, otherwise the government will give up too much value in the process of attracting investment. This paper examines the effect of tax cut and investment subsidy on the government's net benefit from a project. Earlier studies concluded that it was optimal to use only investment subsidy and no tax cuts. We show that this is not true when debt financing is possible, and it is generally optimal (from the government's perspective) to use a combination of tax reduction and investment subsidy. The optimal tax rate and optimal investment subsidy are identified and analyzed in the paper. It is shown that using a sub-optimal combination of incentives can result in substantial reduction of benefits for the government.     

房产税对宏观经济的影响效应研究

本文扩展Dong et al.(2019)通过企业家对住房地产和实体经济投资进行资产组合决策,把房价、投资、消费和产出等重要经济指标纳入主流新凯恩斯框架,考虑银行能否区分贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业两种情形,分析了房产税引入住房市场前后对宏观经济的影响效应。研究结果表明:开征房产税对房地产开发投资、房价和新住房生产具有明显的抑制作用,对实体经济投资则具有正挤入效应增加和负抵押效应减少的双重效应。从短期看,当银行无法区分企业贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业时,因前期的负抵押效应大于正挤入效应,总实物资本减少,产出下降;当可清晰区分二者时,负抵押效应变为小于正挤入效应,总实物资本增加,产出上升。鉴于推出房产税对宏观经济影响较为复杂,应充分权衡利弊,采取必要辅助措施趋利避害。     

政府财政激励、税收征管动机与企业盈余管理——以财政"省直管县"改革为自然实验的研究

政府对企业利润享有征税权,事实上是几乎所有企业的最大的中小股东,因此有动机对企业进行严格的税收征管,进而影响公司治理。本文以1998-2006年中国工业企业为样本,以财政“省直管县”改革为自然实验,从企业盈余管理的角度对此进行了考察。研究发现:财政“省直管县”改革能够显著抑制县辖区内企业的盈余管理行为,并且仅对具有征管权限的企业发挥作用;同时,当县级政府财政状况较差和税基较大时,财政“省直管县”对辖区内企业盈余管理行为的抑制作用更强,表明财政“省直管县”改革能够激励县级政府加强税收征管,进而改善辖区内企业盈余质量。更进一步地,本文还发现财政“省直管县”改革能够抑制企业逃税,提升县级政府财政收入。本文的研究不仅丰富了政府行为影响公司治理方面的文献,同时也为财政“省直管县”如何缓解县级政府财政困难提供了微观证据。