Stationarity and Cointegration in Systems with Real Estate and Financial Assets

This study examines the properties of wealth indices for investments in several asset classes (real estate, stocks, bonds, and Treasury bills), for several types of real estate (office, retail, research and development office, and warehouse), and by region (East, Midwest, South, and West). The series representing the value of investments in real estate and financial assets are not stationary; therefore, ordinary statistical procedures cannot be applied. Since many of the properties that are included in the real estate series have outside appraisals on an annual basis, especially in the fourth quarter, the real estate series may show seasonal influences. Hence, the appropriate test for cointegration is the Johansen's test, which is formulated in such a way as to allow for deterministic seasonality by the inclusion of seasonal dummy variables. The finding of cointegration implies that there is a long-run relationship between the series in the cointegrated system. When the CPI (or a proxy for inflation) is included in the three systems, the number of common factors increase to two, implying that inflation plays an important role in creating a linkage between these time series. These findings also have implications for developing portfolios comprising financial assets and real estate. The findings also have implications for developing a model to forecast real estate prices.     

Dynamics of Private and Public Real Estate Markets

Using five assets (T-bills, bonds, stocks, and both public and private real estate), this study investigates how cointegration of capital markets affects the dynamics of public and private real estate markets. The results show that the price indices of the five assets are nonstationary and cointegrated. Some implications for the long-term equilibrium relationship for portfolio diversification, price discovery and prediction are discussed. In a Granger causality framework, error-correction augmented VAR models (VECM) and unrestricted VAR models are compared with respect to the conclusion regarding the interaction between public and private real estate returns. VECM is also shown to improve the prediction of private real estate returns relative to an unrestricted VAR model. These results raise questions about previous research studies regarding the dynamics between public and private real estate returns. It is shown that the long-term equilibrium relationship establishes a feedback between the two real estate markets, but the private market seems to informationally lead the public one. Possible explanations are also explored.     

多元城镇化、门槛效应与房地产库存：理论解释与实证检验

基于我国房地产和城镇化省际面板数据,构建面板模型和门槛效应模型,考量多元城镇化、门槛效应对房地产库存的影响.结果表明:人口城镇化、空间城镇化和产业城镇化对房地产库存具有显著抑制作用,资本城镇化对房地产库存具有显著促进作用,技术城镇化对房地产库存的影响存在门槛效应.随着技术城镇化跨越人均可支配收入相应门槛值,其对房地产库存的影响由显著到不显著再到非常显著,由促进作用转变为抑制作用,影响系数的绝对值也转变为较大.     

Risk and return in real estate

Basic information is provided on the returns and risks from 1978 through 1985 for unleveraged equity real estate compared with stocks and bonds. Data sources include the Russell-NCREIF index, the Evaluation Associates index, and the Goldman Sachs equity real estate investment trust index. Findings reveal that the aggregate return for the publicly traded equity real estate investment trust index in nearly twice that of the other real estate series, and more than twice that of the Standard & Poor index. The equity real estate investment trust is far more volatile than the other two real estate series. Neither the Goldman Sachs nor the other two indexes exactly measure the returns or risks on equity real estate. The volatility of the equity real estate investment trust leads it to overstate the risk of this investment category, while the other two indexes are not return indexes. Estimates from this study indicate that real estate risk lies plausibly midway between that of stocks and bonds, in the 9 percent to 13 percent range.     

Impact of Earnings,Dividends and Cash Flows on Stock Returns: Case of Taiwan's Stock Market

The study uses Taiwan's stock market, a newly developed market with different characteristics from that of the U.S., as an experimental case to examine the influences of the market's characteristics on the relationship between stock returns and fundamental accounting information, such as earnings, dividends and cash flows. The testing period is from 1990 to 1994, right after the promulgation of Taiwan's accounting standard for statement of cash flows in 1989.Similar to the findings of U.S. studies, the study shows that earnings data is key information for investors. Unlike the U.S. results, however, both operating income and non-operating income are positively related to stock returns. The usefulness of non-operating income to explain stock returns is due mainly to its recurrent characteristic in Taiwan. The market views non-operating income, mostly from disposal of real-estate and short-term equity investments, as a complementary factor to operating income. It is a possible common phenomenon in a booming economy. Unlike from the results of U.S. studies, Taiwan's stock returns are strongly associated with stock dividends. Cash dividends, however, are relatively less important information to the market. The fast booming economy as well as Taiwan's free tax rate on capital gains are the explanations for the different findings. The results also support McNicholes and Dravid's (1990) and etc. results that stock dividends may act as a signal for favorable future earnings. Examining the association between stock returns and cash flow information, the results indicate that stock returns are positively associated with cash flows from both operating and financing activities. The phenomenon implies that the market appreciates not only the cash inflows from operating activities, but also cash inflows from new issues of bonds or stocks for further expansion. It is consistent to Taiwan's booming economy. The finding also supports Ross (1977) and Leland and Pyles' (1977) signaling hypothesis.The study concludes that the relationships between stock returns and fundamental variables are subject to the market's characteristics. The case of the Taiwan stock market shows that usefulness of accounting information depends upon the different roles of the information in the tested market. The results of the study also indicate that directly applying the U.S. experiences without any adjustment may cause incorrect conclusions for empirical studies.     

The predictability of real estate returns and market timing

Recent evidence suggests that all asset returns are predictable to some extent with excess returns on real estate relatively easier to forecast. This raises the issue of whether we can successfully exploit this level of predictability using various market timing strategies to realize superior performance over a buy-and-hold strategy. We find that the level of predicability associated with real estate leads to moderate success in market timing, although this is not necessarily the case for the other asset classes examined in general. Besides this, real estate stocks typically have higher trading profits and higher mean risk-adjusted excess returns when compared to small stocks as well as large stocks and bonds even though most real estate stocks are small stocks.     

Asset returns and inflation

We estimate the extent to which various assets were hedges against the expected and unexpected components of the inflation rate during the 1953–1971 period. We find that U.S. government bonds and bills were a complete hedge against expected inflation, and private residential real estate was a complete hedge against both expected and unexpected inflation. Labor income showed little short-term relationship with either expected or unexpected inflation. The most anomalous result is that common stock returns were negatively related to the expected component of the inflation rate, and probably also to the unexpected component.     

Government real estate interventions and the stock market

We study the spillover of government interventions in the real estate market to the stock market. We find that the more active mutual funds decreased ownership in equities with no short-term reversal. Furthermore, they increased ownership in the finance sector stocks without significant changes to their real estate equity holdings. The interventions affecting the riskiness of the finance sector stocks triggered a larger trading response than the ones focused on the real estate sector stocks’ cash flows. Overall, the spillover of the housing market shocks to the stock market seems to be materialized mostly through the discount rate channel.     

Property and Inflation: The Hedging Characteristics of U.K. Commercial Property, 1967–1994

This paper examines the statistical similarities between U.K. commercial property capital and rental values and the price level. Our aim is to determine whether commercial property is an inflation hedge and, if so, what type of inflation it hedges against. To answer these questions, we use both a multivariate unobserved components model and structural vector autoregressions. We find that commercial property is an inflation hedge but only a weak one. More specifically, we find that property offers some form of partial hedge against changes in the underlying inflation rate but not to either temporary or permanent changes to the price level. We also find that capital values offer a stronger hedge than rental values and that industrial and retail property account for most of this hedging capacity. We find no evidence that property responds differently to high or low inflation but we do find capital and rental values respond more to unexpected inflation than anticipated price changes.     

新常态下中国货币政策的宏观经济效应研究 ——基于不同中介目标的实证检验

以中国2003-2020年的季度宏观经济数据为样本,通过构建时变系数向量自回归模型分析银行间同业拆借利率、M2、信贷规模、社会融资规模四项货币政策中介目标对实际产出、通货膨胀、房地产市场以及股票市场的动态影响效应.结果表明:同业拆借利率对产出的影响呈增强趋势,M2、信贷以及社会融资规模等数量型货币政策对产出的影响效应更显著;信贷与社会融资规模对通货膨胀的影响效应较显著;同业拆借利率对房地产市场的短期影响效应较大;M2、信贷与社会融资规模对房地产与股票市场的长期影响效应较大.     

Owner-occupied homes,income-producing properties,and REITs as inflation hedges: Empirical findings

New evidence on the correlation patterns of various real estate returns with inflation is presented. Returns on a wide array of real estate, nonresidential as well as residential, are investigated. Stock and bond returns are also analyzed for comparison purposes. Extensive heterogeneity is found in real estate return correlations with inflation. Nonresidential property returns are most strongly positively correlated with inflation, although the appreciation in owner-occupied homes is also positively associated with inflation. However, REIT returns tend to be strongly negatively correlated with inflation. In this respect, they look more like traditional stocks and bonds than any other type of real estate. Finally, new evidence on return correlations with energy prices is also presented. Nonresidential real estate performs best here, too, although no real estate asset fully compensates investors for adverse energy price shocks.     

The sensitivity of bank stock returns to real estate

According to the Federal Reserve Board, banking firms have recently been shifting significantly larger portions of their loan portfolios into real estate. This increase in real estate lending has caused concern about the continuing economic health of banks on the part of state and federal regulators, since changes in real estate returns, evidenced by changes in property value, can potentially have a significant impact on bank default risk and profit-ability. However, concerned parties do not seem to have explicitly considered the relationship between mortgage default risk and the specific characteristics of real estate investments.This study examines the sensitivities of stock returns for different bank groups, based on the percentage of total loans in real estate and the percentage of loans in five different mortgage categories (construction and development loans, farmland loans, one- to four-family residential loans, multifamily residential loans, and nonresidential and nonfarm loans), to changes in real estate market returns. This is done by developing and using a three-index model.The results of this study indicate that bank stocks, overall, are very sensitive to changes in real estae returns. Banks, with a larger portion of their total loans invested in all types of real estate loans, except farmland loans, are most sensitive to changes in real estate returns.     

对个人住房开征物业税的几个判断及效应预测

对个人住房开征物业税是关乎国计民生的大事。本文认为,开征物业税之前需要进一步理顺中央与地方的财政关系;开征后的物业税收入要用于满足地方公共财政支出的需要;物业税开征后的征管质量取决于对个人住房信息的掌握和政府各部门间的横向合作。物业税开征与地区房地产价格弱相关,与全国房地产价格无关;与股市题材炒作相关,与资本市场发育无关;与当地居民收入和福利相关,与辖区外居民效用无关。     

Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts

Existing empirical evidence has frequently observed that professional forecasters are conservative and display herding behaviour. Whilst a large number of papers have considered equities as well as macroeconomic series, few have considered the accuracy of forecasts in alternative asset classes such as real estate. We consider the accuracy of forecasts for the UK commercial real estate market over the period 1999–2011. The results illustrate that forecasters display a tendency to under-estimate growth rates during strong market conditions and over-estimate when the market is performing poorly. This conservatism not only results in smoothed estimates but also implies that forecasters display herding behaviour. There is also a marked difference in the relative accuracy of capital and total returns versus rental figures. Whilst rental growth forecasts are relatively accurate, considerable inaccuracy is observed with respect to capital value and total returns.     

资本账户开放对汇率波动和股市收益的影响研究——基于日本1998~2011年的数据

利用日本1998~2011年的月度数据,通过构建股市收益率、实际汇率变动以及短期资本净流入的三元结构的 SVAR 模型,对上述三变量之间的动态关系进行定量分析。结果表明：在资本账户开放后,短期资本存在套利和套汇的现象,短期资本流入会导致股指走低,却使得实际有效汇率小幅走高;日本股市虽然受到汇率和资本流动的影响,但影响有限;短期资本流动对国内国际变化较为敏感,应谨慎开放资本项目。此外,在推进资本账户开放的过程中,应同时推进汇率形成机制的市场化。     

Frothy Housing Markets and Local Stock-Price Movements

Prior empirical research finds habitat effects manifest in stock pricing among firms that share headquarters cities. We empirically investigate whether trends in residential real estate prices affect headquarters-city stock pricing phenomena for companies across U.S. metro areas for 1989?C2004. Specifically, we hypothesize that stocks of firms headquartered in ??hot?? residential real estate markets experience higher returns compared to stocks of firms from ??cold?? markets. We also hypothesize that stocks of firms headquartered in hot real estate markets display stronger return comovement with same-city stocks. We find support for these hypotheses during the 1999?C2004 sample period which coincides with the start of the housing bubble of the 2000?s; we find mixed results in earlier periods. Our findings indicate that city-specific home price patterns conditionally affect stock pricing of local firms, suggesting that investor behavior is influenced by localized shocks to household real estate wealth.     

Are REITs real estate? Evidence from international sector level data

The aim of this study is to examine whether securitized real estate returns reflect direct real estate returns or general stock market returns using international data for the U.S., U.K., and Australia. In contrast to previous research, which has generally relied on overall real estate market indices and neglected the potential long-term dynamics, our econometric evaluation is based on sector level data and caters for both the short-term and long-term dynamics of the assets as well as for the lack of leverage in the direct real estate indices. In addition to the real estate and stock market indices, the analysis includes a number of fundamental variables that are expected to influence real estate and stock returns significantly. We estimate vector error-correction models and investigate the forecast error variance decompositions and impulse responses of the assets. Both the variance decompositions and impulse responses suggest that the long-run REIT market performance is much more closely related to the direct real estate market than to the general stock market. Consequently, REITs and direct real estate should be relatively good substitutes in a long-horizon investment portfolio. The results are of relevance regarding the relationship between public and private markets in general, as the ‘duality’ of the real estate markets offers an opportunity to test whether and how closely securitized asset returns reflect the performance of underlying private assets. The study also includes implications concerning the recent financial crisis.     

Women's Liberation as a Financial Innovation

In one of the greatest extensions of property rights in human history, common law countries began giving rights to married women in the 1850s. Before this “women's liberation,” the doctrine of coverture strongly incentivized parents of daughters to hold real estate, rather than financial assets such as money, stocks, or bonds. We exploit the staggered nature of coverture's demise across U.S. states to show that women's rights led to shifts in household portfolios, a positive shock to the supply of credit, and a reallocation of labor toward nonagriculture and capital‐intensive industries. Investor protection thus deepened financial markets, aiding industrialization.     

金融周期对房地产价格的影响——基于SV-TVP-VAR模型的实证研究

本文利用2004-2016年的季度数据构建金融周期综合指数,用以描述金融市场景气程度;使用SV-TVP-VAR模型,围绕金融周期对我国房地产价格的影响进行实证研究。结果表明,金融周期对房地产价格的影响具有明显的时变性特征:2008年以前金融市场繁荣对房价有稳定推升作用,2008年后该影响持续弱化;与之类似,实体经济对房价的影响同样自2008年起逐渐减小。这意味着,在经济增长方式转变和经济结构调整的过程中,我国房地产价格对经济金融冲击的敏感度已经大幅下降,金融扩张可能难以再通过房地产市场有效带动实体经济的繁荣,相反,其反而可能导致银行贷款不良率的攀升,在金融系统内积累系统性风险。我国针对房地产的宏观调控政策不仅对控制贷款不良率的提高体现出积极作用,而且自2008年国际金融危机以来,产出及房价的随机波动率均呈显著下降趋势,风险得到有效控制。未来应更加重视房地产市场调控在宏观审慎政策框架中的重要地位,遏制房地产金融化泡沫化势头,防范房地产市场引发金融危机。     

外资进入内地房地产市场的特点、原因及调控建议——以辽宁为例

近期,国家推出一系列宏观调控措施以促进房地产市场平稳健康发展,在全国房地产市场降温过程中,仍须关注外资进入对内地房地产市场的影响。文章以辽宁为例分析了外资进入内地房地产市场的特点、原因及相关影响,并从合理引导外资流向、发挥税收调节作用、加强外资流动监管等方面,就完善房地产领域的外资管理提出建议。