量化宽松货币政策下美国的消费投资与全球流动性泛滥

美联储试图通过量化宽松货币政策的实施刺激国内私人部门消费和投资的增长。研究表明,由于美国经济的问题不是流动性短缺,因此,量化宽松货币政策不仅没有带来美国经济的复苏反而带来全球美元流动性泛滥,强化了全球经济运行的不稳定性和不确定性。作为国际货币的主要发行国,美国应该放弃这种与邻为壑的量化宽松货币政策,以保持全球经济和金融的稳定。     

美国量化宽松货币政策对中国经济的影响

美国实行了两轮量化宽松货币政策,来救助本国经济。但由于美元既是美国货币又是国际货币的特殊性,其政策效应通过全球大宗商品价格、利率和汇率的波动,影响国际资本流动和进出口贸易,溢出到与之有经济往来的国家,使得国际流动性过剩及输入性通胀,全球大宗物品物价纷纷上扬,给羸弱的世界经济复苏蒙上了阴影。由于全球经济的联动性,作为率先走出经济危机的新兴市场经济国家,中国也最多受到了美国两轮量化宽松货币政策的影响。这些影响对我国经济的持续健康发展带来了严重挑战,我们必须采取积极有效的政策进行应对。     

美国金融生态的恶化与量化宽松货币政策就业效应的失灵

在量化宽松货币政策下,美国的经济衰退得到了显著遏制,但失业率却持续在高水平运行,表明量化宽松货币政策对降低失业水平无效。研究显示,金融危机造成了美国金融生态的明显恶化,银行体系采取了紧缩信贷的应对措施,因此,美国政府通过量化宽松货币政策释放的流动性被截留在银行体系内部,不能形成满足市场投资需求的流动性供给,国内投资不能扩张,失业率就不可能下降,其结果必然导致量化宽松货币政策就业效应的失灵。     

美国宽松的货币政策制造了世界性高通胀吗——基于次贷危机后不同经济体通货膨胀差异的分析

为了避免次贷危机所造成的不利影响,美国自2007年底开始大幅下调利率,并从2009年以来采取了量化宽松的货币政策,大量增加流动性。与此同时,2008年以来,世界各国尤其是新兴市场和发展中经济体发生了严重的通货膨胀。现存文献大多将此归因于美国宽松的货币政策,其实并不完全如此。虽然美国次贷危机以来的宽松货币政策确实提高了2008年以来的通货膨胀率,却不能解释新兴市场和发展中经济体的通货膨胀普遍高于发达经济体的事实。因此,美国宽松的货币政策只是扩大了原有的通货膨胀,而高通胀的根本原因仍然在于各国国内的高货币供给。     

应对新冠疫情冲击的货币政策国际协调

新冠疫情冲击了世界经济增长和金融市场稳定。很多国家推出极度宽松货币政策应对危机。从经典货币政策国际协调的博弈理论来看,应对本次疫情冲击的各国货币政策协调性不足,“以邻为壑”的非合作均衡效果明显。为数不多的货币政策协调也存在执行力不足、深度与广度不够、新兴市场国家话语权低等问题。在世界经济紧密联系、货币政策溢出效应加强的背景下,为了应对疫情冲击,国际组织需要创设协议和合作剩余分配机制,寻找货币政策刺激效果和防止国际资产泡沫之间的平衡,加强政策沟通和信息共享,提高新兴市场国家话语权,建设有效的应对危机的货币政策国际协调机制。中国应在“一带一路”倡议的框架下建立长期货币政策协调机制,在现有的IMF和G20等平台上发挥发达国家与新兴市场国家之间的协调桥梁作用,通过持续开展央行间技术性合作等措施参与和推进协调进程。     

美国退出量化宽松货币政策对新兴经济体的影响

美国退出量化宽松货币政策将使流动性收紧、资产价格下降、长期利率上升、资本回流。而资本流动逆转将直接引发新兴经济体资产价格和汇率波动,通过汇率和贸易渠道影响新兴经济体的发展。为应对美国退出量化宽松货币政策,新兴经济体可采取紧缩性货币政策、外汇缓冲政策、资本流动管理政策等减少资本流出的冲击。同时,新兴经济体还应加强区域货币合作,积极协调创建国际货币提供机制。     

美国定量宽松的政策效果及对新兴市场国家的影响

定量宽松是美联储在通货紧缩下所采取的一种直接创造货币、扩大央行资产负债表规模的非传统货币政策。定量宽松可以增加货币供给、降低借贷成本、促进消费和经济增长,起到一定的刺激经济复苏的作用。但定量宽松将给我国等新兴市场国家造成较大的负面效果,如加剧国际流动性过剩、货币被动升值、储备货币信用下降、增加了国际货币体系不稳定等。     

美国货币政策对中国货币政策溢出效应的实证研究及比较分析

金融危机后美联储量化宽松政策对新兴经济体产生了许多负面影响,货币政策的溢出效应引起了广泛关注。货币政策的溢出效应体现在多个方面,文章选择研究对货币政策的影响,从经济原理和国际教训的分析入手,运用SVAR模型进行美国货币政策对中国、巴西货币政策的溢出效应实证分析。结果说明,美国货币政策会对中国等新兴经济体货币政策产生冲击,冲击的程度与两国的经济关联度、经济发展状况、经济金融制度等都有密不可分的关系。中国要避免美国的不利冲击,需要推进国际货币政策协调、国际货币体系改革、经济结构优化和资本流动管理等。     

推进人民币国际化应对全球“量化宽松”

正2008年国际金融危机后,美国、欧盟、日本等发达经济体相继推出量化宽松货币政策,向经济体系中注入大量流动性,导致人民币对世界主要货币持续升值。面对考验,中国应采取更为主动的方式,积极推进人民币国际化进程。2009年以来,美国在刺激经济的名义下,先后推出了四轮量化宽松的货币政策,向市场注入超额资金。这种大规模增加货币供应的做法引起了欧盟、日本等经济体跟进,推动全球经济进入一个"量化宽松"(Quantitative Easing,QE)时期。     

中国热钱问题研究——基于量化宽松货币政策

经历2008年次贷危机,一些西方发达国家面临着较高的失业率和信贷紧缩,经济复苏步伐缓慢,为此启动量化宽松货币政策,推动热钱更多地流入新兴市场。热钱的大量涌入不但向中国境内输入巨量流动性,使得货币政策执行效果大打折扣、外汇净流入压力加大、外汇储备持续攀升、加剧了流动性过剩,还严重影响到金融经济的安全。从热钱流入、对中国经济的影响和对策等方面分析热钱问题。     

Real Effects of Monetary Policy in New Zealand

This article analyses the dynamic effects of unexpected domestic and foreign monetary policy shocks on industrial output in New Zealand based on a new open economy macroeconomic model. Empirical analyses are performed using unrestricted recursive open economy vector autoregressive models involving policy and non‐policy variables for New Zealand and four of its most important trading partners (that is, Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States). The empirical findings are in accord with the qualitative predictions of the conventional monetary transmission mechanism applicable to a small open economy. Consequently, no empirical anomalies are observed in the dynamic behaviour of New Zealand industrial output in response to restrictive monetary innovations of domestic and foreign origin.     

Macroprudential policy and the inward transmission of monetary policy: The case of Chile,Mexico, and Russia

This paper studies whether domestic macroprudential policy may attenuate the inward transmission of monetary policy shocks from the United States to domestic bank lending growth in three emerging market economies—Chile, Mexico, and Russia. Identification relies on banks’ heterogeneous exposure to prudential policies and the fact that foreign monetary policy shocks are exogenous from the perspective of these economies. After analyzing the effects of the aggregate domestic prudential policy stance, we focus on specific prudential policies targeting mortgage and consumer loans, as well as foreign‐currency deposits. Although our overall results are mixed, we find evidence that the strength of international monetary policy spillovers varies depending on the stance of domestic macroprudential policy. In particular, a tighter reserve requirement stance over foreign‐currency deposits in Chile dampens the effect of an international monetary policy shock on domestic local‐currency lending, but reinforces that on foreign‐currency lending, whereas in Russia, it dampens the effect on both local‐currency and foreign‐currency lending, although to different degrees. Prudential policies targeting the asset side of banks’ balance sheets, such as mortgage loans or consumer credit, are found to amplify international monetary policy spillovers in some cases and attenuate it in others, depending on the country context.     

美国量化宽松货币政策影响及中国对策

随着金融危机的不断蔓延和影响的逐渐深化,美国在采取第一轮和第二轮量化宽松货币政策失效后,还可能采取第三轮量化宽松货币政策来稳定和刺激经济。此种极端货币政策引发多米诺骨牌效应,并将对中国经济产生深远影响。对此,文章从量化宽松货币政策产生的机理出发,在着重分析美国量化宽松货币政策对中国经济可能造成影响的基础上,提出中国所应采取的应对策略,以减缓量化宽松货币政策对中国经济可能产生的不利影响。     

MONETARY POLICY ACTIVISM UNDER MANAGED-FLOATING EXCHANGE RATES: A CROSS-COUNTRY COMPARISON

This paper assesses the degree and pattern of monetary policy activism in the United States, Canada, West Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan during the recent period in which managed-floating exchange rates prevailed. Floating exchange rates enhance the potency of a discretionary monetary policy. Yet central banks in these countries shifted toward less discretionary monetary targeting during the late 1970s in response to rising inflationary pressures and expectations. But whether such targeting actually reduced policy activism is unclear since targets were expressed in wide ranges and often were missed. Following 1981, at least three of these countries–the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom–reverted to an avowedly more discretionary pattern of response to changes in real demand pressures, interest rates, and exchange rates. Since mid-1986, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan–and, to a lesser extent, Canada–have intervened heavily in the foreign exchange market and so have greatly increased their official dollar holdings. Moreover, through August 1987, the effects of this intervention on these countries' domestic money supplies apparently have been sterilized only partially.     

The interaction between macroprudential and monetary policies: The cases of Norway and Sweden

To shed light on the interaction between macroprudential and monetary policies, we study the inward transmission of foreign monetary policy in conjunction with domestic macroprudential and monetary policies in Norway and Sweden. Using detailed bank‐level data, we show how Norwegian and Swedish banks’ lending reacts to monetary policy surprises arising abroad, controlling for the domestic macroprudential stance and the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies. In both countries, domestic macroprudential policy helps mitigate the effects arising from foreign monetary surprises.     

On causality and the monetary approach to the balance of payments: The European experience

Using Sims causality test it is shown that the negative relationship between the rate of domestic credit creation and the rate of change of foreign exchange reserves is consistent with the direction of causality proposed by the monetary approach to the balance of payments and it is not simply the result of central bank sterilization or private bank credit policy. Evidence of such opposite causality is present in Sweden and the United Kingdom but it is part of a two-way feedback structure still consistent with the monetary approach.     

The effect of US stress tests on monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets

This paper explores the transmission of US monetary policy through US banks to emerging market economies (EMEs) and the role that stress tests play in this transmission. Data on US banks’ monthly commercial and industrial loan originations shows that: (a) US bank lending to EMEs was sensitive to domestic monetary policy changes during the zero‐lower bound period. (b) Effects of monetary easing were heterogeneous across banks and depended on banks’ stress test results, a proxy for their capital strength. Only banks that comfortably passed the stress tests issued more loans to EME borrowers. (c) Effects of monetary tightening were more similar across banks. (d) Banks shifted their lending to safer borrowers within EMEs in response to monetary easing, leaving the risk of their overall loan books unchanged. These results support the hypothesis that bank capital affects the transmission of easier monetary policy, including across borders. We conjecture that bank lending to EMEs during the zero‐lower bound period would have been even higher had the United States not introduced stress tests for their banks.     

The international business cycle as intertemporal coordination failure

Where investments are irreversible and the future is uncertain, people in two countries can make investment decisions that turn out to be mutually inconsistent. I argue that this intertemporal coordination failure explains international business cycles in a two-currency-area setting with a floating foreign exchange rate. The sequence of events starts with an expansionary domestic monetary shock, which decreases the domestic real interest rate. Facing low transactions costs, people spend the new money relatively early in the foreign exchange market and in the foreign market for loanable funds. Domestic monetary expansion thereby changes the relative prices of domestic and foreign goods and also of goods of earlier and later stages of production. The relative price changes lead to intertemporal and international coordination failures once the monetary expansion ends and relative prices change. Domestic monetary policy thereby causes the comovement across different currency areas we observe of business cycles.     

美元贬值对中国通货膨胀的影响:传导途径及其效应

本文结合有向无环图方法(DAG)及结构向量自回归模型(SVAR),分别从成本推动渠道、资金输入渠道和货币扩张渠道就美元贬值对我国通货膨胀影响的传导途径及其效应进行了实证研究。分析表明,由成本推动渠道,美元贬值会迅速带动我国工业品出厂价格上涨,能源价格、食品价格和金属价格的传导效应都很显著,而推动我国居民消费价格走高则存在一定时滞,主要依赖食品价格传导。此外,国际大宗商品价格上涨对我国通货膨胀的影响更侧重于生产领域。由资金输入渠道,美国联邦基金利率走低和美元指数下滑会带动国内商品房销售价格和资本市场价格的结构性上升,进而拉动我国通货膨胀,其中以市场利率和短期资本流动传导尤为显著。由货币扩张渠道,美元贬值对我国工业品出厂价格的影响更为显著,货币扩张主要通过外汇占款和人民币升值预期对我国通货膨胀产生影响,且以对消费领域的影响较为明显。本文的研究显示,我国当前承受着较大的输入型通货膨胀压力。     

The semi-strong form efficiency of the London Metal Exchange

This paper uses vector autoregressions to investigate the interdependence of the monetary policies of the central banks of Germany, Japan and the United States. Granger–Sims causalities and innovation accounting mechanisms suggest that tri-lateral linkages are strong and complex. The results imply that the influence of foreign central banks' policies limit each central bank's capacity to determine an independent domestic policy.