西方宪政经济学研究综述

宪政经济学(Constitutional Economics)是经济学方法在宪法领域的推进,侧重的是宪法规则的经济学分析。“宪政经济学”这一名称最早出现在由理查德·麦肯齐编辑的《宪政经济学:包含政府的经济权力》(1984)的论文集中。宪政经济学是分析宪法和宪政的经济后果的经济学(罗森鲍姆,2001)。它着重研究在社会共同生活中制约和影响经济和政治行     

宪政小议

美国华盛顿大学教授丹·莱夫认为：“宪政意指法律化的政治秩序，即限制和钳制政治权力的规则和制度，宪政的出现是与约束国家及其官员相关。”而美国学术团体联合会主席凯茨博士将学者们对宪政的认识概括为三点：（1）宪政是由一组用于制定规则的自足或自觉的规则构成的，即宪法是“法之法”；     

白轲论中国的党国宪政体制

目前世界上的宪政体制,大体分为三种模式:其一是超国家宪政模式,其二是神权宪政模式,其三是党国宪政模式。本文集中介绍了白轲对中国党国宪政体制的研究。党国宪政体制来源于马克思列宁主义和苏联的实践,新中国成立后所确立的宪政模式也在这种传统之下。但是,这种党国宪政体制在1982年以来进行了一场根本性的改革,开始迈向"一党宪政体制",是在党和国家分权的基础上,增加了法治的要素,确立了宪法的最高地位,从而在党的领导与依法治国之间形成了一种动态的平衡。一方面党作为社会价值规范的提供者为宪法和法治提供了规范价值基础,另一方面宪法和法治约束了党的行为方式,使其服从于宪法和法律。     

《天坛宪法草案》与民初宪政选择的失败

本文运用宪政制度分析的方法,探讨民国初年《天坛宪法草案》的制度特色。作者认为宪法草案中“超议会制”的政体设计是一种错误的宪政选择,违反了分权制衡与制度变迁的原则,因此无法获得北洋政治集团的支持与推动,这是民国初年民主转型失败在制度层面上的重要原因。     

经济改革和宪政转轨

本研究经济改革和宪政转轨之间的关系，论证国家之间和国家内部不同政治力量间的竞争是宪政转轨的推动力量。通过对俄罗斯和中国的例证，本分析了两种转轨模式下的特征和问题。结论是，在政治垄断下的经济转轨将被国家机会主义所挟持。经济转轨双轨制产生了宪政转轨的非常高的长期代价，大大超过它赎买既得利益平滑转型的短期好处。经济转轨是后社会主义国家的制度与WTO规则下的全球经济趋同的过程，而不是创造一个本质上不同的制度的创新过程。     

当代中国宪政建设的路径分析

宪政是现代社会一种最合理的政治制度,实现宪政是现代国家政治的根本标志和常规形态,宪政之于中国可以说还是一个复杂而艰巨的系统工程.要推进我国宪政建设必须加强我国的各项制度建设,积极培育公民的宪政意识,并且切实加强对公民权利的保护,高度重视宪法的监督实施.     

经济改革和宪政转轨

本文研究经济改革和宪政转轨之间的关系,论证国家之间和国家内部不同政治力量间的竞争是宪政转轨的推动力量。通过对俄罗斯和中国的例证,本文分析了两种转轨模式下的特征和问题。结论是,在政治垄断下的经济转轨将被国家机会主义所挟持。经济转轨双轨制产生了宪政转轨的非常高的长期代价,大大超过它赎买既得利益平滑转型的短期好处。经济转轨是后社会主义国家的制度与WTO规则下的全球经济趋同的过程,而不是创造一个本质上不同的制度的创新过程。     

经济改革和宪政转轨

该文研究经济改革和宪政转轨之间的关系,论证国家之间和国家内部不同政治力量间的竞争是宪政转轨的推动力量.通过对俄罗斯和中国的例证,该文分析了两种转轨模式下的特征和问题.结论是,在政治垄断下的经济转轨将被国家机会主义所挟持.经济转轨双轨制产生了宪政转轨的非常高的长期代价,大大超过它赎买既得利益平滑转型的短期好处.经济转轨是后社会主义国家的制度与WTO规则下的全球经济趋同的过程,而不是创造一个本质上不同的制度的创新过程.     

通过宪法改革解决政府失灵——宪法经济学的思路

在现代市场经济下 ,既存在市场失灵 ,也存在政府失灵。公共选择理论提出的解决政府失灵的思路是 ,对现行的宪法或宪法制度进行改革 ,对政府权力施加宪法约束 ,重新确立一套经济和政治活动的宪法规则 ;通过对制定经济政策的规则进行重新选择来约束政府规模的过度膨胀和政府对经济活动的过度干预。这个思路构成宪法经济学的基本点     

经济改革和宪政转轨:回应

该文研究经济改革和宪政转轨之间的关系,论证国家之间和国家内部不同政治力量间的竞争是宪政转轨的推动力量.通过对俄罗斯和中国的例证,该文分析了两种转轨模式下的特征和问题.结论是,在政治垄断下的经济转轨将被国家机会主义所挟持.经济转轨双轨制产生了宪政转轨的非常高的长期代价,大大超过它赎买既得利益平滑转型的短期好处.经济转轨是后社会主义国家的制度与WTO规则下的全球经济趋同的过程,而不是创造一个本质上不同的制度的创新过程.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.