The Art of Reforming Centrally Planned Economies: Comparing China, Poland, and Russia

The three reasons for gradualism, (1) agricultural reform should precede industrial reforms, (2) state-owned enterprises (SOEs) can be reformed, and (3) economic liberalization should precede political liberalization, are not generalizable. China′s gradualism is the product of political deadlock over the final form of the economy. China has been most successful in the areas where reforms have been radical and lackluster where reforms have been incremental. The output performance across reforming countries reflected differences mainly in economic structures rather than in policies. China′s growth comes from the movement of surplus agricultural labor into industry, and Poland′s and Russia′s decline come from the closing of noncompetitive enterprises to release factors of production to the new efficient enterprises. J. Comp. Econom., June 1994, 18(3), pp. 000-000. University of California, Davis, California 95616-8617.     

Design of reforms with time‐inconsistent voters

Widespread agreement that a political reform is necessary is no guarantee that it is actually undertaken in a timely manner. There is often a delay before action is taken and reform packages that would be most efficient to implement all at once are often done only gradually. We propose a theoretical model explaining this behavior and show that when voters have present‐biased, time‐inconsistent preferences, gradualism can arise in equilibrium and be welfare‐enhancing. This is because without the possibility for gradualism, time‐inconsistent voters would delay implementing the reform even more. Using a citizen candidate model, we allow the agenda setter, who decides which reform schedule to put to vote, to be endogenously determined. We show that voters who are aware of their own time inconsistency can use the election of the agenda setter as a commitment device and appoint an agent who is more patient than the median voter in order to avoid full procrastination and to achieve efficiency‐maximizing gradualism.     

The Uncertainty of Economic Success When Economic Regimes Are Uncertain: A Study of Transition Periods

We construct a model of a reform economy in transition from central planning to free markets. The eventual success of the reform is uncertain. A numerical implementation of the model examines the implications of two alternative paths, instantaneous or gradual price reform. If the controlled-price sector has sharply decreasing returns to scale in production, then gradualism may lead to welfare higher than that of instantaneous reform. Given the inefficiencies in production in many transition economies, this may help to explain why countries that have used gradualism have sometimes fared better than those that have followed a path of rapid price liberalization. J. Comp. Econom., October 1994, 19(2), pp. 217-236. University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045.     

Chinese rural reform in 30 years: An analysis in terms of institutional economics

Both from history and logic, the rural reform is the starting point for China’s overall economic reform. The gradualism, inherent logical evolution and interest conflict of reform in China all have their origins in rural reform. The thirty-year’s rural reform can be viewed as the adjustment of urban-rural relations by different period. This study adopts the analytical framework of institutional economics to clearly demonstrate the whole logic process of institutional transition, then from the international comparative perspective, generalizes some basic experiences in China’s rural reform and the lessons for developing and transitional countries. On the basis of judging different stages of economic development, this paper also sums up the new challenges faced by rural reform and discusses its prospects for the next reform.     

国有企业改制中的无形资产问题研究——基于湖北省国有企业改制的调查分析

因特殊的时空约束和渐进改革的制度安排,国有无形资产已经成为我国经济结构调整和国有企业改革赖以顺利进行的重要资源。本文通过考察湖北省国有企业改制中无形资产资本化的实践,总结了国有企业改制中国有无形资产资本化遇到的结构失衡、产权模糊和披露缺陷等三大障碍,并针对上述障碍提出在国有企业改制中过程加强无形资产管理的对策建议。     

20世纪80年代以来全球经济外部不平衡的调整:历史的视角

20世纪80年代以来全球经济外部不平衡发生了三次大的调整,每次调整的背景和方式不同。20世纪80年代美日之间的外部不平衡是通过高增长背景下刻意的货币制度设计来完成的,是一种"渐进"的调整方式。20世纪90年代东南亚国家外部不平衡的调整是在高增长背景下,由货币"错配"引发的组合投资逆转带来的以货币危机形式完成的,是一种"休克"的调整方式。而2006年以来至今的美国经济外部不平衡的调整是在金融危机加速全球经济急速下滑的背景下,更可能依靠实体经济总需求的下降来调整,将是一个相对缓慢的过程。     

中国城镇就业所有制结构的演变：1988-2000年

改革以来，国有部门在城镇就业中所占的比重有了大幅度下降，但在持有本地城市户口的居民中，国有部门就业的比重一直比较高。我们把职工在国有部门就业分解为两方面选择的结果，一个是职工对国有部门的偏好，另一个是国有部门的准入。使用1988年到2000年中国城镇居民住户调查6省的数据，我们联立地估计了这两方面的行为。估计结果表明，在20世纪90年代。城市居民对国有部门的偏好有所降低，但是平均而言仍然保持比较高的水平，国有部门的准入限制在20世纪90年代初期有一定程度的放松，虽然在90年代中期职工大规模下岗期间，这种趋势有些反复，但是下岗高峰期过后，国有部门又放松了准入。在90年代初期国有部门就业比例的上升，主要是国有部门准入放松的结果,在90年代后期国有部门就业比例的下降，则主要是居民对国有部门偏好有所下降的结果。进一步地对工资部门差别的分析，发现国有部门的工资持续地高于非国有部门的工资，这在一定程度上解释了90年代城镇居民与国有部门之间粘连的原因。本文的发现说明，降低国有部门的工资升水，可以使国有部门的改革更加顺利。     

Are Indian States Converging in the Post-Reform Period?: An Empirical Inquiry

This paper studies the convergence phenomenon for 23 states of India for the period 1981 to 2001. The decades of the 1980s and the 1990s has been studied separately to comment on the convergence behaviour in the pre reform and post reform period. In addition to that of per capita SDP, convergence of per capita output emanating from the agriculture, industry and the services sector has been analysed to get a deeper insight. Both sigma (σ) convergence and beta (β) convergence have been examined. The study finds absence of sigma (σ) convergence and unconditional beta (β) convergence of per capita NSDP both in the 1980s and 1990s. However, conditional beta (β) convergence estimates reveal that the poorer states are catching up with their richer counterparts in the 1990s. The panel GMM estimates reveal that Indian states converged to their steady state output at a higher rate in the 1990s compared to the 1980s. At the sectoral level, Industry had a higher speed of convergence than agriculture in both decades. Further, divergence rather than convergence is observed for the services sector in both decades.

     

休克疗法与制度移植:新的争论以及1806年后普鲁士和西南德国改革的启示

经济学界关于休克疗法和渐进主义的争论又有了新的发展,这一次是有关发展中和新兴国家的。法国大革命及其对其他欧洲国家的影响,已经作为一个历史案例,在讨论大爆炸改革策略的优缺点时被屡屡提及。文章为1806年后普鲁士和西南德国改革之间的比较提供了一个特别有趣的历史案例研究,这到目前为止并未得到应有的重视。这个案例研究将揭示社会转型过程中经济和政治之间的深层次互动,因而对不同的经济改革策略的评价不能也不应该脱离对政治初始条件的考量。从最近的改革经验来看,一个特别有趣的发现是,普鲁士可能提供了第一个政府被东易北容克(East-Elbian Junkers)俘获的历史案例。     

SECTORAL EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH: TESTING THE IMPACT OF POLICY REFORMS IN INDIA

This paper analyses the impact of India's policy reforms on exchange rate pass‐through into import and export prices, using panel data (at one‐digit SITC level) for pre‐ (1980–90) and post‐reform (1991–2001) periods. While the pass‐through into import prices has declined, the pass‐through into export prices (in USD terms) has increased during the 1990s. The results suggest that, relative to rupee depreciation, Indian exporters increased their USD prices around 20% in the 1980s, but decreased them by around 70% in the 1990s. Moreover, the number of sectors exhibiting some degree of pass‐through increased in the 1990s (six), relative to the 1980s (three). These changes may be attributable to the elimination of currency and trade controls, which increased competition among firms and fostered a concern with market share gains in the 1990s over an attempt to use depreciations to increase profits in the 1980s.     

演化、转轨与市场过程理论视角的渐进改革

文章认为,基于主流经济学的激进改革思路,无法解释制度演化的多样性与开放性。渐进式改革强调路径渐进、演化、零碎的特征,与更适合解释现实世界的演化经济学、转轨经济学以及市场过程理论的逻辑一致。考虑非正式制度的内生渐进演化特征,迄今为止的渐进改革模式具有理论与现实的合理性。     

Complementarities in economic reform

The authors report on technical work which examines the implications of combining complementarities and convex adjustment costs in a model of economic reform. The main results are that the optimal pace of reform is higher if there is a larger initial crisis, stronger pro-reform institutions, and greater immediate potential entrepreneurship. This supports the argument that radical reform was appropriate for most countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, while gradualism was more appropriate for a country like China.     

我国经济体制改革的地带性差异问题

地理学一贯重视的地带性差异同样可以用于讨论我国的经济体制改革.我国经济体制改革的模式是"体制外"的增量改革,即在改革之初绕开了计划经济体制内的国有经济和国有经济中错综复杂的矛盾而大力推进各种非国有经济成分的发展.在非国有经济成分得到比较充分的发展之后,特别是在获得了承受改革成本的能力之后才开始在1990年代的中期以后对国有经济进行改革.空间上的过程则是首先在"体制内负担小、体制外条件好"的东部沿海地带推进非国有经济的发展,使那里的经济迅速发展之后推动其他地带.这个模式获得成功的根本原因,一是非国有经济成分的发展选择了劳动密集型产业,因而提供了大量的新增就业和政府税收,二是体制外增量弥补了体制内的减量,即国有经济释放出来的大量失业.但是沿海地带成功的模式在其他地带的实践却并不顺利,沿海地带的发展在很多方面压抑着其他地带的改革和发展.文章分析了沿海地带对资源和就业岗位的垄断,提出其他地带不能一成不变地按沿海地带的模式进行改革,其他地带改革的内容和重点应该有所不同.     

The Trojan-Horse Principle in Development Assistance: A Reading of Uganda's Experience with Aid

The World Bank recommends “ideas, not money” as a guiding principle to donors for dealing with badly governed countries. This paper challenges that principle on the basis of a study of the evolution in Uganda of pro‐growth policies in the early to mid 1990s and pro‐poor policies in the late 1990s. The analysis of Uganda’s experience with aid is accommodated within the theoretical framework of a principal–agent conditionality game, in which policy objectives of the recipient (the agent) evolve over time. The key finding of the paper is that the apparent conditionality failure of the period 1987–91 has paved the way for later reform. Financial aid given during this period suspended the necessity of reforms and bought donor proximity to recipient policy deliberations, as a result of both of which the policy learning could take place that led to later successful reform measures.     

A REVISIONIST VIEW OF CHINESE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY?

Although productivity increased during the initial Chinese agricultural reforms, there is less clarity about subsequent reform efforts. Several studies find that productivity growth either slowed or stopped in the mid-1980s, but these studies use official labor statistics that indicate an increasing farm labor force during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Using an alternative calculation of China's farm labor force showing a decrease in agricultural labor, this article reexamines the data on Chinese agricultural productivity and notes that the changes in productivity appear to correlate to changes in economic policies.     

财政分权:促进国有企业效率提高的可置信承诺机制

中国的渐进式改革是政治集权下的财政分权改革。财政分权增强了地方政府发展地方经济的激励,导致地方政府间争夺经济资源的竞争。这种竞争提高了救助低效率国有企业的机会成本,可以作为一种承诺机制,硬化国有企业的预算约束,进而促进经济增长。     

Is economic rebalancing toward consumption “greener”? Evidence from visibility in China, 1984–2006

The Chinese government has adopted a rebalancing strategy since 2011, shifting from an investment- to consumption-oriented growth model. An aim of this reform is for a “greener” development mode, but relevant empirical evidence is slim. In this study, we propose an innovative methodology to shed light on the environmental externalities of economic rebalancing. First, we use air visibility across China to reflect air quality during 1984–2006. Second, with the daily visibility data, we propose a weekend-effect regression model to difference out city-specific unobserved heterogeneity. Third, we approximate local consumption intensity with the portion of the residential electricity usage in the total electricity usage. To our surprise, the estimates suggest that the pollution intensity of consumption activities has not only been significant, but also exceeded that of production since the mid-1990s. Hence, rebalancing toward consumption is not necessarily more environmentally friendly according to the recent development experience of China.     

THE DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF RUSSIA'S TRANSITION

We consider the distributional consequences at a national level in Russia during the initial phase of market reforms between the mid-1980s and the early 1990s. Although the incomes of many individuals changed favourably under the reforms during this period, average real household per capita income declined between 1985 and 1992. In particular during the first year of major reform in 1992 households at the lower end of the income distribution seemed to incur the largest fall in income. As a consequence there was a rise in measured income inequality. The Gini coefficient, estimated by various researchers to have been around 27 percent between the late 1960s and early 1990s. we estimate to have increased to 32.2 percent by the end of 1992. We also estimate that poverty increased with 18.5 percent of the population on incomes lying below the official subsistence level at the end of 1992.     

INFLATION TARGETING AND THE ECONOMY: LESSONS FROM CANADA'S FIRST DECADE

Inflation targeting has become the centerpiece of the monetary policy framework in a number of industrial countries and emerging economies. The first part of this article examines the Canadian experience with inflation targeting since its introduction in early 1991 and various issues that require resolution in establishing such a framework. It also examines the way inflation targets deal with demand, price, and productivity shocks. The second part focuses on Canada's economic performance during the 1990s. Factors other than monetary policy - most notably private sector restructuring and the fiscal situation in the first half of the decade - played an important role in the sluggishness of the recovery from the recession of 1990–91. Trend growth in Canada during the 1990s was lower than in earlier periods and than U.S. trend growth over the same period. The article examines the role of such factors as productivity growth and participation rates in explaining the differences. I conclude that a good monetary policy is necessary but not sufficient for good economic outcomes.     

日本解决地方财政困境的改革措施与启示

20世纪90年代中期日本泡沫经济破灭以来,日本地方财政状况逐步恶化,地方政府债务规模不断增大,甚至发生因"隐性债务"膨胀而导致地方财政破产的恶性事件。针对地方财政管理中存在的问题,2000年以来日本政府出台了一系列改革措施力图重建地方财政。这些措施包括:引入"财政健全化"指标体系,力图早期诊断和化解财政风险;改革地方转移支付资金不足部分的补足方式,提高财政信息的透明度;加强地方政府债务管理,减少中央政府担保,实行多元化融资形式;在地方政府会计核算中部分引入权责发生制,加强对存量资产的管理;推行"三位一体"财政体制改革,充实地方财政;推行市町村合并,强化地方自治体间的联合等。本文综合考虑中日两国在财政体制、政体、历史、文化等方面的相似性与差异性,提出中国地方财政风险问题的解决之道。