Globalization and Inequality, Past and Present

The late nineteenth and late twentieth centuries shared morethan globalization and economic convergence. The trend towardglobalization in both centuries was accompanied by changes inthe distribution of income as inequality rose in rich countriesand fell in poor ones. Between one-third and one-half of therise in inequality since the 1970s in the United States andother member countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperationand Development (OECD) has been attributed to global economicforces, about the same as a century earlier. It appears thatthe inequality produced by global economic forces before WorldWar I was responsible in part for the retreat from globalizationafter the war. What does this retreat imply for the future?Will the world economy once again retreat from globalizationas the rich OECD countries come under political pressure tocushion the side effects of rising inequality?      

Food Aid: A Cause of Development Failure or an Instrument for Success?

The role of food aid in furthering the economic developmentof poor countries and in alleviating the adverse effects onthe poor of structural and sectoral adjustment programs is discussed.A simple analytical framework for evaluating the incentive andwelfare impact of food aid is suggested. Domestic and internationalmarkets for food historically have been subject to severe distortions,leading to ever-growing food stocks in some, mainly rich, countrieswhile in others, largely poor, many cannot afford to consumeenough food. The possible impact of distortion-free global foodmarkets is sketched. The use of surplus food for payment ofwages in rural works programs has often been proposed as a meansto create productive assets while alleviating poverty. Usingan applied general equililbrium model of the Indian economy,it is shown that a well-designed and efficiently implementedfood-for-work program can virtually eliminate abject povertyin India at a modest cost. Experience with food aid in severalother countries is also briefly discussed.     

Social long-term care insurance and redistribution

We study the role of social long-term care (LTC) insurance when income taxation and private insurance markets are imperfect. Policy instruments include public provision of LTC as well as a subsidy on private insurance. The subsidy scheme may be linear or nonlinear. For the linear part we consider an arbitrary number of types, characterized by earnings and survival probabilities. In the nonlinear part, society consists of three types: poor, middle class and rich. The first type is too poor to provide for dependence; the middle class type purchases private insurance and the high income type is self-insured. The main questions are at what level LTC should be provided to the poor and whether it is desirable to subsidize private LTC for the middle class. Interestingly, the results are not totally similar under both linear and nonlinear schemes. First, whereas in the linear case a subsidy of private LTC insurance is desirable, it is not in the nonlinear case (at least at the margin). Second, the desirability of public provision of LTC services depends on the way the income tax is restricted. In the linear case, it may be desirable only if no demogrant (uniform lump-sum transfer) is available. In the nonlinear case, public provision is desirable when the income tax is sufficiently restricted. Specifically, this is the case when the income is subject only to a proportional payroll tax while the LTC reimbursement policy can be nonlinear.     

The economic dimensions of malnutrition in young children

1 billion people - 1/3 of them children under the age of 10 - live on diets that are deficient in essential calories. Focus in this discussion is on the magnitude of the problem. The economic implications of specific intervention programs designed to solve the problem are reviewed. Caloric intake is closely associated with per capita income, and malnutrition characterizes the poorest segments of the population. Since the lowest-income groups have larger families, the incidence of malnutrition among children is certain to be higher than the incidence among adults. 3 factors will determine whether, on the basis of current trends, caloric malnutrition can be expected to be eliminated among the poorest segments of the population of the development countries: 1) the future income growth of the malnourished groups; 2) their propensity to use additional income to increase their caloric consumption; and 3) the future changes in the relative price of the main staples, basically cereals. The problem of malnutrition cannot be resolved quickly enough without explicit measures to raise the level of caloric consumption. Governments can initiate a wide range of programs and policies in an effort to augment the caloric consumption of children in the target population - transfer of cash to target households, target group oriented food programs, and food stamps for certain groups. In order for a food program to have more of an effect on consumption than would an equivalent transfer of income, 2 conditions need to be met: 1) the food must be made available at lower prices and in larger quantities than that previously consumed; and 2) reselling of the food must be precluded. In sum, the only effective solution for dealing with the problem of malnutrition among children of developing countries is either a more equitable distribution of income or supplying the food to the target population at a price far below its normally supply price.     

Poverty and progress: choices for the developing world

Some development strategists equate progress with economic growth and others consider increased equity in income distribution or a reduction in poverty as indicators of progress. This report examined the empirical relationship between economic growth and income distribution using data derived from a number of recent comparative studies. Various studies supported the Kuznets hypothesis, which states that during the early phases of development income distribution worsens and improves during the later phases. These studies demonstrated that as per capita income increases in poor countries, income distribution worsens until the per capita income reaches the $800 level. After that level is reached, income distribution generally improves. In a study of 11 countries, the relationship, in recent years, between income growth for the rich and for the poor, and income growth for the country as a whole was examined. Of the 11 countries, Taiwan, Yugoslavia, Sri Lanka, Korea, and Costa Rica were ranked as good performers, since more than 30% of the increment in national income was allocated to the poorest 60% of the population. The countries of India, Philippines, Turkey, and Colombia were ranked as intermediate performers since 20-30% of the increment in national income went to the poorest 60%. Poor performance countries were Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. In these countries less than 20% of the income increment was allocated to the poorest 60%. A table provided comparative national income and income distribution data for the 11 countries. These findings did not permit an assessment of different development strategies; however, they did indicate that: 1) some countries, such as Taiwan, Yugoslavia, and Korea, achieved both rapid growth and greater income distribution equity; and that 2) although some countires, such as Sri Lanka, which stressed equity, grew less rapidly than other countries, such as Mexico, which stressed economic growth, the poor fared much better in the former countries than in the latter countries. The conclusion was reached that proverty must be reduced by: 1) improving income distribution; 2) promoting economic growth; and 3) reducing population growth. Efforts must be directed toward preventing the poor from falling behind the rich as development proceeds.     

Does convergence matter if it takes 100 years? Different scenarios of convergence

This paper attempts to show that the income gap between rich and poor countries cannot be eliminated with the current international policies. Different scenarios are discussed. It would take 130 years for the Congo, 203 years for Eritrea and 103 years for low-income countries to reach to the current average per capita income of Norway. To equalize the overall per capita income levels of high and low-income countries from now until the year 2020, the latter group would have to grow 20 percent. These values show that current economic policies are insufficient to create economic parity among the world's nations. To do so would require radical changes in current domestic and international economic policy.     

“租补分离”模式下中国公共租赁住房的定价模型设计

2014年起公租房和廉租房两类租赁型保障房开始并轨运行,使得定价工作变得相对复杂。原“公租房”保障对象是收入跨度大、身份复杂的“夹心层”群体,定价以市场为导向;原“廉租房”保障对象是本地城镇户籍的低收入住房困难家庭,发挥“兜底”作用,定价以收入为导向。两者并轨以后,需要综合成本、市场、收入三个基本要素,该兜底的还是要兜底,该盈利的还是要盈利。结合学界的理论探索和各地的实践经验,按照“租补分离”的模式设计了定价模型,首先以成本和市场两个要素确定公租房的基准定价,然后根据“剩余收入法”确定政府对低收入家庭的补贴额,从而实现政府财政的可承受性,社会资本的可盈利性,低收入家庭的可支付性三个基本目标。     

The Heterogeneous Responses of Consumption between Poor and Rich to Government Spending Shocks

Government spending shocks have substantially different effects on consumers across the income distribution: consumption increases for the poor whereas it decreases for the rich in response to a rise in government expenditure. I shed light on this issue by incorporating a progressive tax scheme and productive public expenditure into a heterogeneous agent model economy with indivisible labor. The model economy is able to successfully match aggregate and disaggregate effects of government spending shocks on consumption. When the government increases its spending and accompanies it by a rise in tax progressivity, the poor are employed and increase their consumption since after‐tax wage rates increase while the rich decrease their consumption because of a fall in after‐tax wage rates.     

收入不平等、政府支出与实际汇率——基于跨国面板数据的研究

已有较多研究讨论了实际汇率的决定因素,而从收入不平等角度出发的研究并不多。本文搜集和整理了172个国家和地区1970年到2016年的跨国面板数据,分析了收入不平等对一国实际汇率的影响,并引入政府支出探究了收入分配对非贸易品部门和实际汇率的影响机制。实证检验结果表明,对于非OECD国家,收入不平等和实际汇率显著负相关,即收入越不平等,实际汇率高估越严重,而在OECD国家中这一现象并不存在。进一步的影响机制分析发现,对于非OECD国家,一国收入不平等加剧会导致该国政府支出增多,从而扩大了非贸易品部门规模,导致非贸易品的相对价格上升,使得实际汇率高估。     

Lobbying, Counterlobbying, and the Structure of Tariff Protection in Poor and Rich Countries

A political economy model of protection is used to determineendogenously the intersectoral patterns of protection. Threepropositions are derived that are consistent with the stylizedpatterns of tariff protection in rich and poor countries: Nominalprotection rates escalate with the degree of processing, protectionis higher on average in poor countries, and rich countries protectagriculture relatively more than they protect manufacturing,whereas poor countries do the reverse. Numerical simulationsfor archetypal rich and poor economies confirm that the endogenouslydetermined structure of protection is broadly consistent withobserved patterns of protection.     

The growth of growth

The author argues that there is a natural growth of growth, which a nation follows as it develops : from slow to fast, and then a return to slow growth rates with the arrival of post-industrial society. The existing gap between the rich and the poor nations is both a result of this pattern and a necessity for raising the income of less-developed countries. Policies which will slow growth and redistribute wealth are precisely the opposite of what is needed today. The poor will get richer because the rich get richer. The author outlines the factors acting to accelerate economic growth in the developing countries and to slow it in the developed countries. Once this transition has been successfully managed the world will be much better equipped to manage the real problems facing it.     

Food prices,tax reforms and consumer Welfare in Tanzania 1991–2007

This paper analyses the effect of observed food price changes on household consumption (welfare) in Tanzania and from this simulates the welfare effect attributable to tax (tariffs and VAT) reforms. The three rounds of the Tanzania Household Budget Survey (1991/92, 2000/01 and 2007) are used to apply Deaton’s method based on median unit values (prices) and household budget shares. The results indicate that real price increases over 1991–2007 have reduced welfare of the average household by 20 per cent of 1991 income, and the loss was fairly evenly distributed between the 1990s and 2000s. The welfare loss was much greater for the poor, especially the rural poor (a 27 per cent reduction), compared to the non-poor (in particular the urban non-poor, who suffered a five per cent loss). Although we cannot establish explicit links between tax reforms and domestic commodity price changes, to assess the extent to which welfare changes can be explained by tax reforms we simulate the effects of tax changes on domestic price changes. The simulation shows that tax reforms (tariff reductions) offset the welfare losses for all household groups, especially in the 1990s; although the differences were small, the urban poor benefit more in relative terms from tax reforms whereas the rural poor benefit least (the effect on the non-poor was similar irrespective of location).     

个人所得税调控功能的局限性--兼论我国收入调节的"促富治贫"政策

当前我国收入差距不断扩大的现状得到了人们的普遍关注,并认为这种差距扩大的主要原因是我国个人所得税的调控作用发挥不好.人们过多地把注意力集中在税收调控上是不对的,本文立足于阐述个人所得税调控功能的局限性,从而指出税收并非万能之匙,提出我国收入调节政策应遵循"调高、保低、扩中"的思想进行调整.作者特别强调我国收入调节的核心问题不是富人太富,而是穷人太多且太穷.因此我们的收入调节政策取向不应是"杀富济贫",而应是"促富治贫",缩小贫富差距的重要手段是发展教育.     

The food problem and the evolution of international income levels

In most poor countries, large fractions of land, labor, and other productive resources are devoted to producing food for subsistence needs. We show that a model incorporating the “food problem” can provide new and useful insights into the evolution of international income levels. In particular, we find that the food problem can explain why some countries started to realize increases in per capita output more than 250 years later in history than others. We also show that the food problem has important implications for growth miracles and the speed at which a country converges to its balanced growth path.     

How International Exchange, Technology, and Institutions Affect Workers: An Introduction

In a world of deepening trade links, rapid technological change,and weakening institutions, workers in rich and poor countriesalike are concerned about their incomes and the security oftheir work. In contrast to the substantial quantity of analysison industrial countries, relatively little careful work hasbeen done on these issues in developing countries, especiallyin the context of the recent globalization of economic relations.Empirical work suggests that disequalizing trends in some developingcountries may have been caused by the entry of low-income countriessuch as China into world production or by the greater qualityand technological requirements of contemporary trade in goods.Whatever the source, these results raise questions about theviability of institutional mechanisms for supporting the incomesecurity and working conditions of workers. Many labor marketregulations are already ineffective owing to weak enforcementcapabilities. However, in most developing countries, there willbe a rising fraction of workers in formal labor contracts, risingdemands for formal mechanisms for dealing with income insecurity,and a potentially larger role for unions in an important segmentof the work force. Thus, it is of increasing importance to setthe policy and institutional framework in a fashion that isboth consistent with competitive pressures and supportive ofworkers' participation and security.     

Tradeoffs of foreign assistance for the weakest-link global public goods

Weakest-link global public goods, such as international security, communicable disease prevention or illegal trafficking control, create a strong incentive for rich countries to unilaterally compensate for insufficient supplies of the ‘weakest-link’ inputs by poor countries. We analyze how foreign assistance affects the donor and recipient countries, accounting for discontinuities and non-monotonicities originating from switches between structurally different equilibrium profiles. We show that voluntary foreign assistance improves provision of the public good and also welfare, but makes the donor country worse off for the medium level of income inequality. Unless inequality is large or small, a rich country may benefit from a commitment to the absence of assistance.     

House prices,bank instability,and economic growth: Evidence from the threshold model

This paper examines the effects of house prices on bank instability when gauged at various levels of income growth. Bank stability may respond differently to house price changes or deviations from fundamental values in an economic boom environment than in a bust circumstance. A threshold estimation technique developed by Hansen (1999) is applied to a panel of 286 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) over the period 1990Q1–2010Q4. We consider two house price indicators: the house price changes and the house price deviations from long-run equilibrium. The results suggest the existence of income growth threshold effects in the relationship between house prices and bank instability. Specifically, there are two income growth thresholds when using the house price changes and one income growth threshold when the house price deviations are applied. Robustness results using the non-MSAs sample from 1995Q1 to 2010Q4 provide further evidence of income growth threshold effects.     

老龄化、消费结构与服务业发展

老龄化程度加深和产业结构变迁是经济发展过程中的普遍现象。本文研究了老龄化对服务业发展的影响,发现随着人均收入提高,一个经济体老年抚养比与服务业比重的关系由负相关转为正相关。本文在多部门一般均衡模型中引入人口年龄结构,提出由于不同年龄群体消费偏好的需求收入弹性和替代弹性存在差异,老龄化通过收入效应和价格效应两个渠道影响消费需求结构,进而影响服务业发展。当老龄化在收入效应渠道上的影响为负、在价格效应渠道上的影响为正时,模型可以解释跨国特征事实。本文结合跨国数据校准了模型参数,之后定量评估了不同环境下老龄化对服务业比重的影响,发现这一影响还取决于老龄化程度和产业间相对生产率。改变产业部门消费率和劳动力转移成本等因素后,定量结果仍保持了较高的稳健性。本文从人口年龄结构视角发展了产业结构转型研究,发现“未富先老”不利于服务业发展,并以此就我国应对老龄化和发展服务业进行了政策讨论。     

The current account and stock returns

In this paper, I use stock return data to test an intertemporal model of the current account. I find that the model performs well in three countries: the U.K., Canada, and Japan. Hall [Hall, R.E., 1978. Stochastic implication of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: theory and evidence. J. Polit. Econ. 86 (6), 971–987] points out that because stock price predicts the future state of the economy, it predicts consumption. Assuming that consumption depends on permanent income, my empirical finding indicates that a representative agent smoothes consumption based on stock market information. In other words, stock market returns yield information about permanent income.     

基于累积Logistic模型的居民通货膨胀异质性感受的因素研究

通过调查问卷获取居民的通货膨胀感受及相关的个人特征等数据,运用累积 Logistic 模型,从心理层面和外部信息层面考量影响居民通货膨胀感受异质性的因素。结果表明,收入满意程度、食品价格、房租价格以及促销手段等是导致我国居民通胀感受异质性的主要因素。鉴此,政府应该提高收入满意度、稳定物价以及调节房价,以期降低通货膨胀感受的异质性。