The spatial demand for housing with uncertain quality

This article extends the models of household location and the spatial housing market to examine the impact of uncertain housing quality on the demands for housing and location and the spatial characteristics of the housing price and consumption gradients. The well-known basic predictions of the certainty models remain qualitatively unaltered: equilibrium housing price is still decreasing convex, and (planned) housing consumption increases with commuting distance. Quality risk by itself, though, is seen to reduce the demand for housing and increase the demand for CBD proximity in the location choice model and decrease the equilibrium housing price at all locations in the competitive spatial housing market. The effect of quality risk on the consumption gradient comprises two offsetting effects arising from the increase in risk and the decrease in equilibrium housing price.     

我国公共保障性住房价格机制研究

保障性住房价格是住房保障制度的重要组成部分,价格合理与否不仅关系到住房保障政策的实施效果,而且还是住房保障政策可持续发展的前提.从理论上看,保障性住房价格机制包括价格形成和价格运行机制,二者相互影响、相互制约而又相互促进.当前,我国保障性住房价格形成机制和运行机制都存在一些亟待解决的问题.本文在分析保障性住房价格形成机制、运行机制的基础上,构建一个科学合理的能指导住房保障工作实践的价格机制.     

住房投机与政策调控对房价波动的影响——基于中国40个重点城市的数据

构建住房需求结构、政策调控和价格的动态系统模型,依据2007-2021年40个重点城市季度数据,考量政策调控对于住房投机和房价波动实施效果。结果显示：住房投机推动了房价上涨,政府住房调控政策对房价波动影响差异显著;异质性分析显示,不同地区政策调控实施效果存在差异。鉴于此,应因城施策、分类指导,同时积极畅通房地产调控政策传导机制,提高传导效率,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。     

The Choice of Methodology for Computing Housing Price Indexes: Comparisons of Temporal Aggregation and Sample Definition

Housing transactions are executed and recorded daily, but are routinely pooled into longer time periods for the measurement and analysis of housing price trends. We utilize an unusually rich data set, covering essentially all arm's length housing sales in Sweden for a dozen years, in an attempt to understand the effect of temporal aggregation upon estimates of housing prices and their volatilities. This rich data set also provides a unique opportunity to compare the results using the conventional weighted repeat sales model (WRS) to those based on a research strategy which incorporates all available information on house sales. The results indicate the clear importance of temporal disaggregation in the estimation of housing prices and volatilities—regardless of the model employed.The appropriately disaggregated model is then used as a benchmark to compare estimates of the course of housing prices produced by the two models during the twelve year period 1981–1993. These results indicate that much of the difference between estimates of price movements can be attributed to the data limitations which are inherent in the repeat sales approach. The results, thus, suggest caution in the interpretation of government-produced price indices or those produced by private firms based on the repeated sales model.     

The Structure of Chinese Urban Land Prices: Estimates from Benchmark Land Price Data

Taking the recent benchmark land prices published by the Chinese city governments, the paper estimates commercial and residential land price curves of Chinese cities using cross-sectional data, controlling for urban population size and income level. The urban land leasing price–distance relationship is estimated based on the argument that monocentric urban structure is representative for Chinese cities. Both population size and income level are found to positively affect urban land price and price–distance gradients. Commercial land prices are higher than residential land prices except in suburbs or outer central urban areas, where the land prices of different uses converge. In most situations, commercial use price gradients are larger than those of residential use.

Regional Housing Prices in the USA: An Empirical Investigation of Nonlinearity

Existing literature on housing prices is predominantly in a linear framework, and an important question that has not been addressed is whether housing prices exhibit nonlinearity. We examine Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model based nonlinear properties of housing prices over the 1969–2004 period for the entire US and the four regions. Our main findings are (1) housing price for the entire US and all regions except for the Midwest show non-linearity, (2) the dynamic properties implied by the nonlinear estimation explain the typical patterns that have characterized each housing market, and (3) results of Granger causality tests look more plausible in the nonlinear framework where we find stronger evidence of Granger causality from housing price to employment and also from mortgage rates to housing price.

干得好不如嫁得好?——房价变动与居民婚姻观念研究

房价的快速上涨是近年来我国经济中的重要现象,对宏观经济增长乃至微观个人的观念与行为都产生了重大的影响,但尚未有研究系统考察房价变化对居民婚姻观念的影响。房价上涨反映了对未来预期的不确定性,这种不确定性势必会影响到人们对工作与婚姻的权衡。本文基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2010和2015年数据,详细考察了房价变动对人们在工作与婚姻之间权衡的影响,用人们对“干得好不如嫁得好”的看法来衡量工作与婚姻的权衡。研究结果表明,房价涨幅越高,居民对“干得好不如嫁得好”的认同感越高,且这种现象主要体现在女性群体中。异质性分析表明,女性、未婚女性、已婚女性、女性流动人口、城镇户籍女性以及拥有女儿数量越多的人在工作与婚姻的权衡中更倾向于通过婚姻来抵御未来预期不确定性产生的风险。房价上涨主要通过财富效应和预算约束效应对人们在工作与婚姻之间的权衡产生影响。     

Property-Value Impacts of an Environmental Disamenity: The Case of Landfills

The purpose of this article is to quantify the property-value impacts of a change in environmental quality by using the hedonic price model. In particular, we focus on the impact of the presence of landfills on nearby residential real estate prices. We combine elements of an urban location choice and hedonic pricing model to estimate the effects of the presence of multiple environmental disamenities on residential real estate prices. We explicitly account for temporal effects by including housing transactions in areas with both open and closed landfills and control for information effects. In addition, we treat property taxes and prices as being simultaneously determined. Our analysis suggests that closing landfills will not necessarily mitigate property-value impacts.     

A hedonic price model for private properties in Hong Kong

A hedonic model is used to explore the effects of locational, structural, and neighborhood attributes on the price structure of private condominiums in Hong Kong. The regression results and the elasticities of housing attributes obtained from the Box-Cox analysis indicate that the valuation of a property is sensitive to changes in housing traits. Home buyers are rational and are willing (unwilling) to pay for desirable (undesirable) housing attributes and that the valuation of a property is market-driven in Hong Kong.     

Price spreads and residential housing market liquidity

Most studies of housing market liquidity have measured liquidity in terms of time on the market (TOM), and have sought to explain TOM in terms of property characteristics and measures of market conditions. This paper departs from past studies of housing market liquidity by examining the spread between the listing and contract prices.We develop theory to explain the price spreads in the residential housing market. The model includes the list price of the home, the cost of the search, the standard deviation of offer prices, and TOM. Empirical tests using 3,597 sales for 25 months show a robust relationship of housing market spreads and these variables. Listing price and cost of search have the predicted positive coefficients, and the standard deviation of price offers is found to be negatively related to the price spread.     

Pricing mortgage insurance contracts under housing price cycles with jump risk: evidence from the U.K. housing market

Previous studies have investigated the determinants of housing price cycles in the housing market; however, we observed the phenomenon of housing price jumps in the 2007 subprime crisis. This paper presents a discussion on the housing price cycle and abnormal price jumps to describe the behavior of housing prices in the United Kingdom. The empirical results show that the impact factors of housing cycles are market risk and the switching factor. Furthermore, the impact factors of jump risks include the bursting of the housing bubble and financial crises. Therefore, in this paper, we employ the Markov switching model with jump risks to value the MI contracts and analyze the influences of housing price cycles, jump risks, risks of market interest rate, and the prepayment risks on MI premiums. The results of sensitivity analysis show that more volatile housing price index returns, as well as longer periods of higher volatility in housing prices, raise MI premiums. Moreover, the MI premium is positively related to the absolute value of the average jump amplitude and the shock frequency of abnormal events. There is the tradeoff between the market interest rate and the prepayment risk. The influences of market interest rate are different on MI premium with/without prepayment risks.     

基于面板分位数回归的住宅价格影响因素分析

采用面板分位数回归方法,以全国35个大中城市为样本,利用2006—2015年的数据,对影响住宅价格的因素进行研究。结果表明：土地价格、人均储蓄余额、在岗职工平均工资、人口密度、空气质量对住宅价格有正向影响,每亿人医院或卫生院数量对住宅价格有负向影响;并且不同分位数水平下各影响因素的作用大小具有明显差异。研究结论对不同城市依据自身特征采取相应的调控政策具有一定的参考价值。     

Price Indices Based on the Hedonic Repeat-Sales Method: Application to the Housing Market

Shiller (1993) proposes the hedonic repeated-measures (HRM) approach to measuring constant quality price indices for heterogeneous assets such as some bonds and real estate. We derive a mathematical relationship between the coefficients of the HRM model and those from the standard repeat-sales model, and we demonstrate how hedonic characteristics should be chosen for inclusion in the HRM model. Empirical estimates using Fairfax, Virginia, housing transactions data show that the HRM price index evaluated at the mean of the hedonic variable is virtually identical to the standard repeat sales index, just as predicted by our mathematical relationship. But the HRM allows estimation of different price paths for heterogeneous assets. We demonstrate that use of assessed value as the only hedonic characteristic allows parsimonious HRM estimates.     

信贷约束、房价与居民消费率——基于面板门槛模型的研究

本文在考虑经济互动关系中内在非线性结构前提下,从信贷约束角度探讨了房价波动对消费的影响机制,并基于我国31个省级区域的面板数据利用Hansen门槛模型进行实证分析,研究发现:总体上我国的房价上涨会抑制消费。我们进一步论证这一现象与广大居民仍面临着较多信贷约束有直接关系。本文同时发现,房价的这种负面影响会随着信贷约束的放松程度而发生非线性的变化。     

银行信贷、房地产价格与经济增长的非线性关系研究——基于省际面板平滑转换模型的实证检验

选用中国2000~2014年31个省的面板数据,以银行信贷为转换变量,通过构建面板平滑转换模型对我国房地产价格与经济增长的非线性关系进行考察。研究发现：当信贷增长率低于28.74%时,房价增长率对经济增长产生比较显著的正向影响;当信贷增长率高于28.74%时,房价增长率对经济增长起到了明显的阻碍作用。因此,为了实现“稳定房价和保持经济平稳增长”的目标,央行应将信贷增速维持在低增长体制的最优区间中。同时,央行还应该改善信贷结构,鼓励和引导金融资源进行合理配置。     

房价、城市规模与工资性收入差距——基于中国32个大中城市面板数据的实证检验

基于中国32个大中城市面板数据,拓展Matlack和Vigdor的模型,考量房价、城市规模与工资性收入差距之间的关系。结果表明：房价上涨会引起以基尼系数衡量的工资性收入差距缩小,但当城市规模处于较大水平时,房价上涨又会拉大工资性收入差距;城市规模扩大会显著缩小工资性收入差距,但当城市房价已处于较高水平时,城市规模的继续扩张则会拉大工资性收入差距。     

产业集聚对中国房地产价格影响的实证研究

中国房地产价格持续上涨的成因一直是学界研究的热点。产业集聚作为市场经济活动的必然现象,是否会对房地产价格产生影响?以中国35个大中城市2000~2016年的数据为样本,构建静态面板模型和动态面板模型实证检验产业集聚对房地产价格的影响。研究表明,产业集聚对房地产价格具有显著的正向影响;进一步研究发现,人口集聚和土地成本是产业集聚影响房地产价格的重要中介,即产业集聚能够通过人口集聚和土地价格上涨来推动房价上涨。基于研究结论,为保证我国房地产市场健康发展,应采取促进区域均衡协调发展、多渠道保障城市新流入人口住房和加快土地市场改革等政策措施。     

推动房价上涨的货币因素研究——基于美国、日本、中国泡沫积聚时期的实证比较分析

本文从理论上探究了货币量与房价之间的双向联系,分析了不同渠道下两者之间的动态加速器机制。从货币结构的视角选用了准货币作为考察货币与房价关系的主要变量进行论证。在此基础上,采用协整VAR模型的框架在货币、资产价格、宏观经济之间建立多变量关系,同时针对美国、日本、中国三个国家的典型房价泡沫积聚时期的数据进行实证比较分析。结果表明三个国家中货币量与房价之间都存在长期均衡关系,巨额货币存量推动房价上涨的力量比较强大而且明显。在资产泡沫积聚时期,推动房价上涨的实体因素不足,最重要的还是货币因素推动。因此,要控制房价过快增长,需要中央银行调整货币政策框架及通胀目标,关注资产价格变化并有效控制货币量。     

Spatial Dependence and House Price Index Construction

Accurate estimation of prevailing metropolitan housing prices is important for both business and research investigations of housing and mortgage markets. This is typically done by constructing quality-adjusted house price indices from hedonic price regressions for given metropolitan areas. A major limitation of currently available indices is their insensitivity to the geographic location of dwellings within the metropolitan area. Indices are constructed based on models that do not incorporate the underlying spatial structure in housing data sets. In this article, we argue that spatial structure, especially spatial dependence latent in housing data sets, will affect the precision and accuracy of resulting price estimates. We illustrate the importance of spatial dependence in both the specification and estimation of hedonic price models. Assessments are made on the importance of spatial dependence both on parameter estimates and on the accuracy of resulting indices.     

Constructing Indices of the Price of Multifamily Properties Using the 1991 Residential Finance Survey

Indices of the price of constant-quality, owner-occupied single-family housing are widely available and have been instrumental in learning about the operations of the market for owner-occupied housing. Such is not the case for multifamily rental housing. The purpose of this article is to provide information about movements in the price of multifamily properties during the 1980s and early 1990s using the 1991 Residential Finance Survey (RFS). Several conclusions are drawn from the development and analysis of indices of the price of multifamily housing for the nation and four large states (California, Florida, New York, and Texas). First, indices for the period 1983--1991 generate similar patterns among the various methods employed; furthermore, movements in the index during the period 1983--1991 seem reasonable. Second, much regional variation exists. Prices in Texas were particularly hard hit, falling by over 25% in nominal terms between 1983 and 1991. Third, the impact of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 does not appear to have been as dramatic as some have suggested. Indeed, price declines do not show up in either the 1986 or 1987 indices for the nation, California, or New York.