Land Development: Risk, Return and Risk Management

We model and examine the financial aspects of the land development process incorporating the industry practice of preselling lots to builders through the use of option contracts as a risk management technique. Using contingent claims valuation, we are able to determine endogenously the land value, presale option value, credits spreads and the effects of presales on debt pricing and equity expected returns. We show that using presales options effectively shift market risk from the land developer to the builder. Results from the model are consistent with the high rates of return on equity observed in empirical surveys; they also suggest that developers may be justified in pursuing projects with substantially lower expected returns to equity when a large number of lots can be presold. Additionally, we show that presales reduce default risk dramatically for leveraged projects and can support a considerable reduction in the cost of construction financing. Large debt risk premiums are justified for highly levered projects, which helps explain the use of mezzanine financing in the land development industry to reduce expected default costs.

土地价格、土地财政与宏观经济波动

本文在一个包含金融加速器的新凯恩斯动态一般均衡模型中引入土地财政和政府隐性担保融资机制,借此考察在土地财政体制下土地价格的波动特征、驱动因素和对宏观经济的影响机制,同时使用2004Q1到2016Q1的中国宏观经济数据对模型进行贝叶斯估计。方差分解的结果表明,在样本期间,土地需求冲击、土地供给冲击和货币政策冲击是驱动中国土地价格变动的主要因素,货币政策冲击和土地供给冲击是引起短期土地价格波动的主要因素,土地需求冲击在长期中驱动了土地价格波动。数值模拟结果发现,土地财政对宏观经济波动具有放大效应,正向的土地需求冲击将推高土地价格,并通过抵押约束机制引起宏观经济波动,地方政府对土地财政的依赖将放大该效应,并进一步对土地价格形成正向反馈,从而引起宏观经济更大的波动;在土地财政体制下,正向的土地供给冲击有助于抑制土地价格上涨,并减少宏观经济波动。     

Road Funds, User Charges, and Taxes

Insufficient or uncertain budgetary allocations to road maintenancehave resulted in road deterioration that has significantly increasedproduction and transport costs in many countries. To avoid thisproblem, highway proferssionals advocate the establishment ofdedicated road funds, managed by independent road boards madeup of user representatives. The road boards would have the powerto determine both the level of charges for road use and thelevel of expenditure on road maintenance. By contrast, macroeconomistsand public finance specialists have tended to resist the establishmentof dedicated road funds. They argue that road funds reduce fiscalflexibility, do not adequatedly address problems associatedwith the provision of public goods or the internalization ofexternalities, and often are not well managed. In general, there are two long-term institutional options forreconciling fiscal prudence with asset maintenance; a road agencythat is operated commercially (subject to the normal oversightof behavior accorded to privatized monopolies), or a reformedand well-functioning budget process. This article argues thatroad funds must be viewed as a provisional, case-specific intermediatestep in the direction of one of the long-term solutions. Therole and nature of road funds should be assessed not on generalprinciples but on a case-by-case basis through the analysisof likely micro-and macroeconomic effects. The article recommendsindicatiors for use in specific cases to determine whether aroad fund should be introduced, continued, or abolished.      

城市增长、土地增值与城市政策

中国城市化水平的不断提高,带来了城市经济的繁荣和城市规模的拓展。城市增长最直观的结果就是城市土地实现增值。城市增长在本文主要界定为城市规模或城市空间的扩张、拓展。本文首先利用相关理论模型,从动态角度分析城市增长过程中土地价值的变化规律,然后在分析我国城市增长的空间特征和城市土地增值收益分配现状的基础上,提出实现土地合理开发利用,重构土地增值收益分配格局的政策建议。     

Asset Price Spillover,Collateral and Crises: with an Application to Property Market Policy

This paper studies the impact of land supply elasticity and land use regulation. For sufficiently adverse shocks constrained entrepreneurs liquidate their assets for debt repayment. This effect can spillover to the residential property market. A crisis occurs when households are forced to default on their mortgages as well. While both converting costs and land use regulation tend to magnify the effect of adverse shock, the former generates an asymmetric effect between a positive and a negative shock on the land market, and the latter tends to raise the likelihood of a crisis, by raising the threshold value of liquidation.

产业转移与土地利用的耦合作用机理及协调度评价 ——以环长株潭城市群为例

通过构建耦合协调度模型,运用空间探索分析法评价环长株潭城市群承接产业转移与土地集约利用之间的耦合协调度及时空演变特征。结果表明：整体上,环长株潭城市群承接产业转移与土地集约利用之间的耦合协调度不高,大多处于濒临失调的状态;时间上,2005-2017年八个城市承接产业转移与区域土地利用之间的耦合协调度均朝着协调的方向呈稳定上升趋势;空间上,表现出“以长沙为中心,东高西低、南高北低”的空间分布特征,但差距不断缩小,且在发挥系统整体功能上还有协调发展和深度合作的巨大潜力。     

Optimal development of a building site

This paper points out that the simple convex cost curve of classical economics is relevant to the issue of optimal building size, but only if the questions of time and cost of capital are ignored. It then aims to replace the static production cost model with a multiperiod model and to find a new optimum rule similar to marginal cost equals price appropriate to the construction process. A further purpose of the paper is to propose a simple land valuation model, reflecting the land use potential of a site taking into account the price of floor space, the cost and pace of construction, and the cost of capital.     

土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值响应

本文采用土地利用动态度、土地利用综合指数这两个定量化模型,对2003-2010年内蒙古包头市达茂旗的土地利用变化及由土地利用变化所引起的生态系统服务价值的变化进行了分析.结果表明,达茂旗土地利用结构变化显著,总体的土地利用程度逐年降低,生态系统服务价值也随着当地经济的发展逐渐下降.因此,今后达茂旗的发展一定要提高土地利用效率,注重生态环境质量,合理规划土地利用结构,从而实现土地资源可持续利用和生态、社会、经济的可持续发展.     

Land Values, Land Use, and the First Chicago Zoning Ordinance

This article examines whether the pattern of urban land use should have been regulated by local government in the 1920s, the decade in which many cities adopted their first zoning ordinances. The study is based on the assumption that land values are influenced by the mix of land use on the block. Conditions for land-value maximization are derived, and the circumstances under which land-use zoning can increase land values are discussed. Empirical land-value and land-use functions are estimated for Chicago in 1921, two years before the first Chicago zoning ordinance was adopted. The empirical results for land values imply that the land-use zoning system adopted in 1923 could not have brought about a general increase in land values. The empirical results for land use document the regularities in the use of land prior to the introduction of zoning.     

中集打赢集装箱专利侵权官司

中集集团的漫漫维权路是值得的,其"专利突围"战略更值得中国制造业借鉴。     

The effects of zoning on population and employment density

This article examines zoning's impacts on population and employment density. It develops a model to explore the effects of zoning on the density of residential and nonresidential land use. Drawing on this model, density gradients that incorporate the effects of zoning are estimated for Greensboro, North Carolina. The model is used to simulate the effects of a change in restrictive-use residential zoning. The simulation shows that a 1 percent increase in the level of restrictive-use residential zoning across all neighborhoods in the city is associated with a 0.3 percent increase in gross population density and a 0.1 percent decline in net density (intensity). It suggests that restrictive-use zoning affects both the density and the intensity of residential land use through its effects on the value of residential land.     

The Costs of Free Land: The Oklahoma Land Rushes

There is an extensive literature in economic history on the disposition of public lands of the United States. Absent from this literature is any consideration of the Oklahoma Territory and the two unusual methods used to dispose of its lands. One method was a land rush where entrants literally raced to claim surveyed lots; the other was a lottery where random chance determined who won. This article develops a model of resource allocation applicable to land rushes and lotteries and examines evidence drawn from the Oklahoma land competitions. The model suggests that rent dissipation occurred. The available evidence corroborates this: some, if not all, of the benefits participants gained from the allocation of free lands were dissipated, although there are distinguishable differences in the real costs imposed by the two methods.     

The Use of Census Data for Hedonic Price Estimates of Open-Space Amenities and Land Use

Hedonic price models for determining marginal implicit prices of open-space amenities and nonresidential land use were estimated using housing data from the census. Alternative model specifications were compared to evaluate the effects of aggregating land-use data by alternative levels of census geography as well as the use of different sample sizes of census blocks. It was determined that land use is best aggregated at the block group level and that entire populations or very large sample sizes of census blocks should be used with hedonic models.     

房价调控、地方政府债务与宏观经济波动

在地方政府债务高企的背景下,房价调控能否使资本流向非房地产部门？房价调控如果触发地方政府债务违约,宏观政策应如何应对？本文基于中国宏观经济的特征事实,引入地方政府的土地财政行为,将房价变动与地方政府的偿债能力联系起来。研究表明,由于地方政府依赖土地出让和土地抵押贷款筹集收入,房价管控导致的地价下降会带来地方政府收入的下降,直接影响地方政府的偿债能力。如果地方政府债务不出现违约,那么房价管控带来的地价下降会降低地方政府从金融部门获得的抵押融资额,使非基建部门的融资成本下降,非基建部门投资和产出上升。而如果调控房价带来的地价下降导致地方政府出现债务违约,金融部门资产受损,使金融中介减少贷款和提高贷款成本,带来整个社会的信贷紧缩,经济中各个部门的产出大幅下降。进一步的政策分析表明,有必要在避免地方政府债务违约的同时,使用财政资金补充银行资本金等多种方式稳定金融中介的资产负债表,从而将房价调控对经济的负面影响程度降到最低。     

Pricing Structure in Tokyo Metropolitan Land Markets and its Structural Changes: Pre-bubble,Bubble, and Post-bubble Periods

In this paper, we estimate hedonic price equations of Japanese commercial and residential land prices for a 25-year period and to investigate possible structural changes in these price equations. Our price equations are based on transaction prices, not appraised land values, of commercial land in Central Business Districts of Tokyo (Chiyoda Ward, Chuo Ward, and Minato Ward), and residential land of its suburb (Setagaya Ward). We find that price structure differs substantially among locations, reflecting differences in supplier pricing and end-user preferences. We also find significant structural changes in price structure, identifying pre-bubble, bubble and post-bubble periods.

Leverage,Consumer Finance,and Housing Prices in China

In this article, we focus on the effect of household borrowing behavior on housing prices in China, under the background of rapid growth of consumer finance during the past decade. We build a micromodel to deduce the relationship between consumers’ leverage, housing enterprises’ leverage, and housing prices and use a dynamic panel model and panel error correction model to do the empirical work. The results show that the first- and second-tier cities of China are greatly influenced by leverages, the second-tier cities also by local growth, and the third-tier cities are weakly affected by leverages but greatly affected by the land prices. Further explanations and discussions of the empirical results are given accordingly.     

Using artificial neural network and multivariate analysis techniques to evaluate road operating conditions

Regional paved roads are low volume roads with a prevalence of heavy traffic. In the world, these roads concern about 80% of the total road network; however, the traffic that affects these roads is about 20%. Since regional roads are characterized by weak demand, budget for their management/maintenance is very low. This produces considerable difficulties in the choice of strategies for maintenance planning and scheduling. For this reason, the recurring topics of research in this field deal with typical roads issues and aim to develop low cost tools and methods. The study proposes a decision support system to evaluate regional paved roads operating condition in relation to the hydrogeological situation. In particular, the system allows to evaluate in a quick and easy manner, the operating conditions of the road, through low-cost tools (i.e. using low economic resources). This is very useful in the case of LVRs because administrations for these roads have a limited budget. The procedure is developed on a regional paved roads network based on more than 80 roads located in Southern Italy. Data is collected by direct surveys in the field and is integrated with cartography and information available in road agency records. From data analysis, obtained using two different techniques, an easy and quick use procedure is made. In particular, Model 1 is built through multivariate analysis and Model 2 using the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. The results show the validity of the two models in Regional paved roads operating conditions estimation in relation to hydrogeological situations of sites. Both models show good reliability. In particular, the first model (Model 1) is characterized by a high level of significance (p < 0.01) and by a coefficient of determination equal to 0.82. Comparative tests between the second model (Model 2) on which standard tests cannot be performed for obvious reasons, and the first model (Model 1). The results show that the ANN model (model 2), characterized by lower residual, simulates more accurately than the second (Model 1).     

住房耐用品、土地市场分割与货币失踪之谜

2008年国际金融危机后,我国M2供给增幅远高于CPI上涨幅度,这一现象被学界称为“货币失踪之谜”。本文构建了一个两部门新凯恩斯货币模型来研究这一问题。当外部需求下降后,央行降低利率以提振经济,房地产部门和非房地产部门同时扩张。由于住房属于耐用消费品,具有一定的金融属性,其需求对利率变化更敏感。利率下降后,住房需求相对普通消费品需求上升更多。因为存在土地市场分割,商住用地供给弹性较小,住房需求上升导致商住用地价格上升较多,地价上涨提升了房地产企业的抵押融资能力,房地产部门进一步扩张。普通消费品需求对利率反应小,需求较弱导致工业用地价格上升幅度较小,非房地产部门抵押融资能力小幅提升。因此,非房地产部门产出和CPI只温和扩张。Ramsey最优货币政策模拟表明,只有实现了房地产部门与非房地产部门均衡发展,才能实现社会福利最大化。     

Real option valuation of abandoned farmland

This paper investigates the decision-making process of an owner of abandoned farmland that is currently restricted to agricultural use but will be available for nonagricultural use in the future. I make a real option valuation of the abandoned farmland taking prospective land conversion into consideration. Results from the model calibration demonstrate that a slight probability of land conversion greatly increases the land value and discourages the owner from cultivating the land. Further, the results show that a small gap in the anticipation of land conversion prevents the owner from selling or leasing the land to a more efficient farmer.