中国商业银行经营多元化的实证研究

论文引进衡量企业经营多元化程度的Entropy指标，对中国商业银行的多元化经营绩效及引致风险做出实证分析并从中得到启示，即中国商业银行实施多元化经营战略要谨慎而行，避免自身资源过度分散而对主营优势业务产生“挤出效应”。     

杭州上市公司多元化经营与绩效关系研究

我国企业的多元化经营起步较晚，但是发展态势非常迅猛，最近几年多元化经营企业的数量已超过专业经营企业，多元化问题受到越来越多的关注。本文以杭州市24家上市公司为样本，选取2008-2010年数据，运用描述统计、相关性分析的方法对相关性经营、非相关性经营与企业绩效的关系进行验证。研究表明，企业多元化程度与企业绩效呈无显著相关关系，而专业化经营优于多元化经营。     

流动性过剩与中国商业银行的经营结构转型

中国商业银行存款相对贷款的显著过剩会降低其经营利润,也预示着可能发生的金融违约风险.克服流动性过剩对中国商业银行不利影响的关键包括两个方面:(1)银行自身需要从流动性和企业产能"双重过剩"的现实出发,调整存量和增量贷款的构成及规模,提高贷款风险防范能力,并改进严重依赖以利息收入业务为主体的传统经营方式,通过兼并重组、金融创新和同业合作等途径,实现金融服务和客户对象的多元化,形成特色经营.(2)改进商业银行的宏观经营环境,全面进行利率市场化改革,深度开放商业银行经营范围,切实增强国有商业银行的经营自主地位.     

我国上市公司的多元化战略和经营业绩

本文利用１９９７ 年上市公司年度财务报告中的资料,设计并选择了若干衡量多元化程度和经营业绩的定量指标,对企业经营中的多元化战略与经营绩效之间的关系进行了定量分析,得出了以下几个结论：第一,从整体上看,多元化程度和其经营业绩之间没有显著的因果关系;第二,企业多元化经营虽然没有伴生出较高的经营利润水平,却能够降低经营风险,减少利润水平的大幅波动     

多元化经营、企业价值与收益波动研究——以中国上市公司为例的实证研究

本文指出,马里斯关于企业利润与增长之间存在负相关关系的前提假设不适应于我国上市公司,对处于经济转轨时期的中国上市公司而言,增长与利润之间的关系可能表现出新的特征.本文的研究表明,我国上市公司的多元化对企业价值具有正效应,多元化经营可以提高企业的价值;企业的多元化对企业收益的波动具有负效应,即多元化降低了企业收益的波动程度;没有明显的迹象表明,我国上市公司的多元化经营与绩效关系之间的拐点已经出现.本研究在一定程度上解释了现阶段我国上市公司为什么普遍采取多元化经营这一模式的动机.     

主营业务贡献对利润质量影响实证分析

本文从分析我国上市公司主营业务贡献与净资产收益率的关系入手，探讨主营业务利润对利润质量的影响．结果发现主营业务贡献与净资产收益率变异系数呈负相关关系，主营业务贡献率变异系数与净资产收益率的变异系数呈正相关关系。说明主营业务利润比重在很大程度上决定了公司盈利的稳定性与持久性。因此上市公司应该重视主营业务利润，提高主营业务利润在利润总额中的比重。     

中国商业银行信用风险管理研究

目前,中国商业银行面临的经营坏境越来越复杂,面临的风险种类也越来越多,其中信用风险是中国商业银行面临的最重要的风险之一,对信用风险的防范和管理就构成了中国商业银行全面风险管理的重要内容,而有效的管理会对商业银行的稳健经营起到巨大的推动作用。首先对商业银行信用风险管理进行概述,接着通过对中国商业银行信用风险现状的分析,指出目前中国商业银行信用风险管理中所出现的问题。最后,提出完善中国商业银行信用风险管理水平的方法,以增强中国商业银行的综合竞争力。     

市场化转型、风险偏好与中国商业银行的盈利性

在控制了影响银行盈利性的主要宏观经济及其他个体特征变量的条件下,本文考察了样本期间内全要素生产率变化、国有控股、公开上市、市场势力及风险偏好等因素对中国商业银行盈利性的影响程度与方向。研究发现:在当前金融制度安排下,商业银行向以提升全要素生产率为核心的内涵式发展模式的转变,反而轻微地降低了银行的盈利性;国有控股与公开上市对银行的盈利性均具有正向影响;随着多元化竞争体系的形成,商业银行的盈利能力获得了大幅提升;而中国商业银行在经营活动中的风险态度越是谨慎,风险承担越是适度,其盈利性就表现得越好。在推进商业银行市场化转型的进程中,需要关注国家整体金融制度的顶层设计问题,同时有效控制银行的经营风险,以实现其盈利性的可持续增长。     

中国商业银行个人客户营销分析

随着中国市场经济的快速发展和市场经济体制改革进程的不断加快,中国的个人资产快速增长,个人客户的各种需求日趋多元化,个人金融市场也进入了一个快速发展的新时期,个人客户对商业银行利润的贡献也越来越多。为了顺应市场的变化趋势,个人业务受到中国商业银行越多越多的重视,成为商业银行增加利润的重要对象。对中国商业银行个人客户营销发展的必要性、发展现状、存在问题以及营销策略等方面进行分析。     

茅台公司利息收入与公司价值研究

随着资本市场的多元化发展,企业的利息收入逐步成为企业利润的一个重要组成部分,这在一定程度上也对企业的价值产生了一定的影响,企业的利息收入与企业价值之间存在一定的关系.利息收入作为企业利润的组成部分,具有不确定性,其变动程度也会对企业的利润造成影响,但是,企业的利息收入变化与企业的利润总额变化存在怎样的关系是一个重要的研究内容,因此,本文从企业利息收入的组成及来源和公司价值的影响因素入手,对茅台公司的利息收入与利润总额进行了相关性研究与分析.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.