企业技术创新能力综合评价

评价企业的技术创新能力是我们认识与把握技术创新这种创造性活动的本质与规律，系统总结创新经验的主要手段。它对于正确制定技术创新战略，提高企业技术创新水平，减少创新不确定性具有重要意义。本在构建了技术创新能力评价指标体系基础上，用层次分析法和模糊集合论等理论对评价指标进行权重分析并对指标进行综合评价。     

基于因子分析法的大中型工业企业技术创新能力评价

构建了大中型工业企业技术创新能力评价指标体系,利用因子分析方法找出影响大中型工业企业技术创新能力的关键因素,将其归为内部创新因子和外部创新因子,建立了大中型工业企业技术创新能力评价模型。利用2009年国内大中型工业企业R&D及相关活动的主要指标数据,对不同所有制类型的大中型工业企业的技术创新能力进行评价。研究结果表明:企业办科技机构数量和消化吸收经费支出对内部创新因子的贡献最大;有限责任公司、股份有限公司和外商投资企业在技术创新能力得分上的排名在各类型大中型工业企业中居前三位。     

能源企业技术创新能力对财务绩效的影响——基于企业规模的门槛效应研究

能源消费和供给的重要性使得政府给予能源企业技术创新更多关注和支持，能源企业经营存在较大风险使得能源企业技术创新能力对财务绩效的影响呈现一定特殊性。以我国能源企业2013-2018年技术创新投入与产出能力指标为样本数据，采用因子分析法和动态面板门槛效应模型，在评价能源企业技术创新能力的基础上，分别研究能源企业技术创新投入和产出能力对财务绩效的影响及企业规模门槛效应。研究结果表明，能源企业的技术创新投入和综合能力对财务绩效的影响存在显著的门槛效应，而产出能力的表现并不显著。研究结果可为国家和能源企业的技术政策制定和创新投入决策提供参考。     

知识整合视角下企业技术创新能力评价

随着科技的发展,知识作为一种关键资源在企业技术创新过程中发挥着越来越重要的作用。系统分析企业技术创新能力影响因素,从创新投入、主体协同、创新产出、创新环境4个方面构建基于知识整合的企业技术创新能力评价指标体系,并综合运用熵值法和TOPSIS法构建企业技术创新能力评价模型,进而选取智能装备制造行业的5家企业进行实证研究,提出相关对策建议。     

重构企业技术创新能力评价体系:从知识管理到价值创造

基于从知识管理到价值创造的思路,重新审视了企业技术创新能力的内涵。通过系统的文献回顾,总结了已有企业技术创新能力评价指标体系相关框架(包括点状模型、线状模型、链状模型和面状模型)的特征和不足,提出了由问题驱动、思考未来、多样化知识、创新文化、利益相关者协同、经济价值与社会价值构成的企业技术创新能力评价体系新框架,并构建了新框架的二级指标,为企业技术创新能力的理解、体系框架的构建和评价提供了理论和实践参考。     

运用灰色系统评估原理综合测评企业的创新能力

本文通过对企业技术创新的理论内涵的界定，制定了评价企业技术创新能力的科学指标体系，对其评价主体、评价样本位矩阵进行了重新设计，特别是引入评价指标权重和评价人员权重，构建出双维层次的灰评估摸型，从而对企业技术创新能力综合测度进行更科学、客观的评价。     

企业技术创新能力的度量与评价研究

技术创新是企业发展之源,企业持续、有效的开展技术创新活动依赖于技术创新能力的提高。技术创新能力是一个系统能力,具体地讲,就是便于组织支持企业创新战略和创新活动的一系列综合特征。因此,建立一个科学、系统的技术创新能力评价体系是十分必要的,它可以帮助企业了解自身在实施技术创新活动中的潜力或不足,从而总结经验,弥补缺陷,提升企业技术创新能力。一直以来,企业技术创新能力的评价和度量就是一个难点,技术创新能力在本质上更大程度上反映的是企业的实力或潜力,而一些内在因素的度量是很难通过数学统计方法进行的,不表1企业技术创…     

基于结构方程模型的企业技术创新能力评价研究

提出了企业技术创新能力评价的因果关系模型,利用结构方程模型对评价指标间的因果关系进行了建模和求解。实证研究表明,模型能够有效描述指标间的因果关系,准确定位企业技术创新能力的关键影响因素,为评价和改进企业技术创新能力提供了有力依据。     

企业技术创新能力评价指标体系构建研究

通过梳理国内外学者有关企业核心竞争力、技术创新方面的文献,并对已有的企业技术创新评估方法进行总结和概括,在创新能力评估4个维度技术创新、管理创新、市场创新、制度创新的框架下提出了企业技术创新能力评价指标体系,并应用该评价指标体系建立起相应的企业技术创新能力测度方法,以期为企业的技术创新能力评价提供参考。     

企业技术创新能力的E-V模型评价

运用均值(expected value)一方差模型(variance)(亦简称E—V模型)，提出了对企业技术创新能力进行评价的方法，应用拉格朗日(Lagrange)乘数法求解各指标的权重系数，为科学评价、及时调整企业技术创新策略提供了依据。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.