税收增长超GDP增长分析

自1994年税收制度改革以来,税收收入实现了持续快速的增长,税收十二年间年平均增长率为18.25%,而同期GDP年平均增长率为8.27%（可比价格计算）。税收超经济增长的原因已成为热点话题,本文拟从GDP的核算口径、税收制度设计和税收管理理念的角度,对税收增长因素进行分析,指出在税收制度重复征税设计不变的情况下,税收增长将具有长期性。     

贵州省税收增长与GDP增长的关系研究

随着改革开放30多年来,贵州省的税收收入同国内生产总值都取得了长足增长。本文用数据实证分析贵州省1996-2011年税收增长与GDP增长的关系问题,利用计量经济学构建多元回归模型进行定量分析。结果表明两者之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,并据此提出税收超常增长的危害性,为贵州省今后的税收工作提出可取的建议。     

政府税收努力与税收高增长——兼论税收管理行为的规范化

本文通过把分税制改革前税收低弹性增长的阶段与分税制改革后的高弹性增长阶段纳入到统一的分析框架中,深入探讨了政府税收努力的决定机制,并将其应用于对税收高增长以及税收管理行为规范化等问题的解释。分析表明:地方政府与中央政府在利益目标上的差异是影响税收努力和税收增长的重要因素。1994年的分税制财政体制改革、税制改革和企业财务制度改革,对政府体系税收努力水平的提高和税收高增长,具有重要的影响作用。但地方政府税收管理行为缺乏规范化的问题,并未从根本上得到解决,还需要通过财政体制和税收制度的进一步改革进行完善。     

中国区域税收增长变动的因素分解分析——基于LMDI分解方法

经济新常态背景下,税收增速下滑,探索税收新的增长点就显得非常必要。运用 LMDI 指数分解方法,从宏观角度分解出税收增长的影响因素,并以2005~2012年的省际数据为基础,测算出我国区域税收增长的宏观因素影响效应值。研究发现：经济产出因素和产业税负因素是推动区域税收增长主要动因,不过前者累计贡献度更大;产业结构因素和税收结构因素的效应累计贡献度则产生了区域分化;研究进一步发现,各因素效应变动的深层次原因也呈现出地区性差异。     

中国税收增长方式转变的时空特征分析

本文利用1997～2007年30个省际面板数据为基础,采用将非参数Malmquist指数模型和参数随机前沿函数模型结合起来的SFA-Malmquist方法对我国税收增长方式的时空特征进行了定量研究。结果显示:(1)我国税收增长方式具有明显的阶段性特征,1997～2002年我国税收增长方式是一种粗放型增长方式,而2002～2007年则呈现出集约型增长,"金税工程"在这一转变过程中发挥了重大作用;(2)1997～2007年间我国不同地区税收征管技术效率差别较大,而收敛性分析表明我国不同地区的税收征管技术效率呈发散趋势。     

试分析如何协调财政税收、投资总额与经济增长

协调财政税收、投资总额与经济增长已成为近年来实业界和学术界重点关注的问题。本文利用Johansen协调模型方法对我国财政税收、投资总额与经济增长的关系进行分析研究,通过研究发现,在各种相同的经济环境因素影响下,财政税收对经济增长的推动作用远远小于投资总额对经济增长的推动作用。     

试分析如何协调财政税收、投资总额与经济增长

协调财政税收、投资总额与经济增长已成为近年来实业界和学术界重点关注的问题。本文利用Johansen协调模型方法对我国财政税收、投资总额与经济增长的关系进行分析研究,通过研究发现,在各种相同的经济环境因素影响下,财政税收对经济增长的推动作用远远小于投资总额对经济增长的推动作用。     

影响我国税收收入增长的因素分析

我国近两年税收收入的高增长，既有经济增长的基础，又有政策、管理等方面而形成的经济的前期发展与税收的后期增长以及税收的集中性征收等因素。其中经济因素是决定性因素，但政策因素，管理因素也起到了很重要的作用。     

经济因素在税收增长中贡献作用的估算:1997～2005

经济因素在税收增长中贡献作用的实证研究,是分析税收高增长问题的重要突破口。在实际估算中,首先,在深入分析GDP与税基对应性的基础上,界定了经济因素的内涵及其与税收增长的关联性;其次,结合相关的数据资料,确定了相应的分析步骤和估算方法;最后,计算得到了主要经济因素在1997～2005年期间对于税收增长影响作用的实证结果。     

试分析财政税收、投资总额与经济增长的协整

随着我国社会经济的快速发展，财政税收、投资总额和经济增长趋势以受到了各界人士的强烈关注。本文主要针对这三方面运用Johansen模型分析理论进行了校检和分析，认识了它们之间的关系，得出了企业投资总额促进经济增长的速度要比财政税收对经济增长的速度要快。     

Labor Supply and Targeting in Poverty Alleviation Programs

The introduction of variable labor supply raises some fundamentalissues in analyzing the targeting of poverty alleviation programsin developing countries. It forces a reconsideration of thestandard objective function, which is based on income or expenditureand so makes no allowance for the effort made in earning thatincome. We show that alternative views on the appropriate valuationof effort have very different implications for commodity-basedtargeting rules. We also establish a benchmark for marginaleffective tax rates (inclusive of benefit withdrawal) in income-testedschemes and show that indicator targeting rules may also haveto be modified significantly when labor supply responses arerecognized.     

土地价格、土地财政与宏观经济波动

本文在一个包含金融加速器的新凯恩斯动态一般均衡模型中引入土地财政和政府隐性担保融资机制,借此考察在土地财政体制下土地价格的波动特征、驱动因素和对宏观经济的影响机制,同时使用2004Q1到2016Q1的中国宏观经济数据对模型进行贝叶斯估计。方差分解的结果表明,在样本期间,土地需求冲击、土地供给冲击和货币政策冲击是驱动中国土地价格变动的主要因素,货币政策冲击和土地供给冲击是引起短期土地价格波动的主要因素,土地需求冲击在长期中驱动了土地价格波动。数值模拟结果发现,土地财政对宏观经济波动具有放大效应,正向的土地需求冲击将推高土地价格,并通过抵押约束机制引起宏观经济波动,地方政府对土地财政的依赖将放大该效应,并进一步对土地价格形成正向反馈,从而引起宏观经济更大的波动;在土地财政体制下,正向的土地供给冲击有助于抑制土地价格上涨,并减少宏观经济波动。     

Fiscal Policy and the Terms of Trade in an Analytical Two-Country Dynamic Model

This paper presents a two-country dynamic perfect foresight Ricardian model with wealth effects to study the relationship between government spending financed by alternative taxation, the terms of trade and welfare. An increase in domestic government spending financed by a distortionary capital income tax leads the real exchange rate initially to appreciate (a pure demand effect). But along the transitional path an intertemporal terms of trade effect (a supply side effect) operates and the real exchange rate depreciates to a steady state value ultimately higher relative to the initial equilibrium. The welfare of the domestic resident increases due to a reversed immiserizing growth effect.     

分税与地方财政支出结构

本文研究了税收分成对地方财政支出结构的影响。理论分析发现,在地方政府的财政支出结构竞争中,税收分成比例的提高将直接导致地方政府增加生产性公共支出,发挥生产性支出的产出外部性,提高产出水平和自身税收收入水平,实现福利最大化。一系列经验分析显著地验证了上述结论,即当地级市政府的税收分成率提高10%,该地区生产性支出占比将提高1.39%。本文的分析和结论有助于解释中国地方财政支出结构变动的原因,从而为政府间税收分配改革提供有效的政策建议。     

Optimal money and debt management: Liquidity provision vs tax smoothing

Conventional wisdom on public debt management says that liquidity demand should be satiated and that tax rates should be smoothed. Conflicts between the two can arise when government bonds provide liquidity. Smoothing taxes causes greater variability in fiscal balances, and therefore in the supply of government liabilities. When prices are flexible, and can jump to absorb fiscal shocks, the tradeoff between liquidity provision and tax smoothing is eased; when they conflict, optimal policy subordinates tax smoothing to satiating liquidity demand. When price fluctuations impose real costs, conflicts necessarily arise and optimal policy gives primacy to neither goal.     

Do government preferences matter for tax competition?

This paper explores how government preferences affect capital tax decisions of a country. We develop a model in which governments, differentiating in their preferences for economic development and income equality, compete for mobile capital over corporation taxes. The key prediction of the model, borne out in data from OECD countries over the years 1990–2012, is that an increase in government preferences for pursuing economic development relative to income equality makes countries’ horizontal tax reactions stronger. Unlike the existing studies, our result contributes to the tax competition literature by highlighting the importance of government preferences in determining the extent of tax competition among countries and so offering a novel explanation for the widely observed heterogeneous tax policies across countries.     

地方竞争是否阻碍了地方政府债务绩效的提升？——理论框架及空间计量研究

本文从举债行为策略视角考察地方竞争对地方政府债务绩效的影响。 首先,从不同地区间举债行为策略互动的视角对地方竞争如何影响地方政府债务绩效进行理论诠释,其次,在采用Global超效率DEA方法测度地方政府债务绩效的基础上,突破空间独立性假设,运用空间杜宾模型对地方竞争影响地方政府债务绩效的效果及空间外溢性进行实证检验。研究发现,在地方效用最大化目标导向下,无论是地方税收竞争还是公共投资竞争,都对债务增速产生了较为显著的正向影响和空间外溢效应,导致地方采取主动扩大债务规模的举债行为策略。与此同时,随着债务规模的持续增长,无论是地方税收竞争还是公共投资竞争,都将对债务绩效产生“规模报酬递减”的负向影响和空间外溢效应,尤其是公共投资竞争的影响效果更加明显。进一步地,如果考虑到可能存在预算软约束现象,地方竞争还将与预算软约束行为相结合,对债务绩效产生了“使用效率递减”的负向影响。本文结论为通过债务合理使用来促进经济高质量发展,防范化解地方政府债务风险提供了政策启示。     

Fiscal Requirements for Dynamic and Real Determinacies in Economies with Private Provision of Liquidity: A Monetarist Assessment

We study the impact of fiscal policies on the inherent links between inflation, unemployment, and asset prices in an environment where firms provide liquidity and the central bank follows a constant money growth rate rule. Firms, other than hiring workers, also supply private assets that are not only useful as a store of value but also as collateral. When firms are not taxed and public debt is scarce, the economy is non-Ricardian so that real indeterminacies can be observed. Moreover, labor market characteristics do not affect the demand for government liabilities. However, when agents face public and private asset scarcity, labor market conditions then impact asset prices and inflation. We further show that irrespective of the type of asset scarcity agents face, when firms are taxed non-ad valorem, not only the level of tax revenues but also its composition matter for real allocations. Moreover, we show that labor market conditions directly affect the dynamics of all government liabilities and inflation.     

Fiscal federalism and local public finance: A computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework

This paper attempts to make an argument for the feasibility and usefulness of a computable general equilibrium approach to studying fiscal federalism and local public finance. It begins by presenting a general model of fiscal federalism that has at its base a local public goods model with (1) multiple types of mobile agents who are endowed with preferences, private good endowments, and land endowments, (2) local governments that produce local public goods funded by a property tax, and (3) a land market that capitalizes local policies to equilibrate supply and demand. To this, a state (or national) government producing a state public good is added, and all levels of government abide by majority rule voting. A computable general equilibrium framework is derived from this theoretical model and calibrated to New Jersey micro tax data. It has been applied elsewhere to study the dominance of property in local tax bases as well as the general equilibrium effects of state or national intergovernmental programs such as redistributive grants in aid, district power equalization, and the deductibility of local taxes. Results in these areas are summarized and potential future applications discussed.     

A General Model of the Behavioral Response to Taxation

This paper generalizes the standard model of how taxes affect the labor-leisure choice by allowing individuals to change both their labor supply and avoidance effort in response to tax changes. Doing so reveals that the income and substitution effect of taxes depend on both preferences and the avoidance technology. Econometric analysis will not in general allow one to separately identify the two influences, unless one can specify observable determinants of the cost of avoidance. The effective marginal tax rate on working must be modified by the addition of an avoidance-facilitating effect, which measures how the cost of avoidance changes with higher income. This model provides a conceptual structure for evaluating to what extent, and in what situations, the opportunities for tax avoidance mitigate the real substitution response to taxation.