禽流感危机下肉鸡产业市场状态分析*——基于互联网大数据和MS-VAR模型

[目的]为了有效应对禽流感冲击、维持肉鸡产业稳定健康发展。[方法]基于互联网大数据构建了禽流感舆情指数,选取2012年1月至2017年3月周度数据,通过MS-VAR模型分析了禽流感危机下肉鸡市场状态的转换特征以及不同市场状态下产业链价格传导关系。[结果]2012年以来可将肉鸡产业市场状态划分为危机状态和正常状态,肉鸡产业市场在两个市场状态下转换频繁;肉鸡产业危机市场状态和正常市场状态平均持续期分别为4.65周和9.05周;肉鸡市场在区制转移概率上存在明显的非对称特征;肉雏鸡、活鸡和白条鸡价格之间在危机状态下相关性小于正常市场状态下相关性;不同市场状态下肉鸡产业链价格传导存在差异;肉鸡产业市场在危机状态下不稳定程度明显增加。[结论]提出了加大对禽流感疫情的监测以及疫情处理能力,密切关注公众禽流感舆情动态变动情况,做好舆情引导,加强禽流感疫情科学知识的宣传,增强公众对禽流感的认知等对策建议。     

增信服务还是腐蚀效应:论金融科技等新兴产业发展过程中的风险信号

提出行业性风险暴发的"腐蚀效应"理论,即存在着一种特殊的行业风险暴发过程:行业中各个企业的倒闭是沿着企业的资质链从低到高的顺序发生的.该过程的存在得到了数据回归证实.对于科技金融等新兴行业,警惕和积极防范腐蚀效应,对防范行业性风险具有重要意义.对于客户信任高度依赖的新兴行业,如金融科技等,最容易出现腐蚀效应.因此,在一度高速膨胀的网络贷款领域出现腐蚀效应具有一定必然性."腐蚀效应"的存在也否定了当前把网络贷款行业大面积爆雷的原因归咎于其开展"增信服务"的普遍观点,真正引发风险的原因是网络贷款行业中的企业资质参差不齐和无序竞争造成的无谓成本的大幅增加.从政府对行业的管理视角来看,在促进行业发展时不忘记防范风险十分重要.这在实质上是对制度-制度接口的设计问题.因此应当以制度设计理论来指导防范风险政策的制定,才能取得更好的效果.     

高分1号冬小麦解译面积核算方法研究

[目的]以高分1号(GF-1)融合2m卫星遥感影像为基础数据源,结合土地利用现状数据、高分多源遥感影像和地面样方等数据,对冬小麦分类提取中存在的面积误差问题进行研究和分析。[方法]文章以河南省永城市为研究区,在冬小麦提取结果聚类处理基础上,基于线性地物缓冲区数据,采用GIS空间运算实现线性地物面积扣除,接着分析了样方数据和土地利用现状数据再扣除零星地物面积比例上的差异,并采用样方零星地物平均扣除系数对全市各乡镇耕地与非耕地中冬小麦提取面积进行了相关统计和误差分析。[结果]永城市冬小麦最终解译面积11. 29万hm~2,其中线性地物和零星地物扣除面积分别为6 613. 08hm~2和3 875. 22hm~2,占研究区冬小麦解译面积的5. 86%和3. 32%,与统计上报数据相比,其处理前后误差由14. 12%降低至4. 41%,有效地提高冬小麦提取面积精度。[结论]误差来源分析与修正对冬小麦解译面积核算精度具有重要影响,该研究为县级区域尺度下冬小麦面积提取核算提供了思路和借鉴。     

效率视角下"一带一路"沿线国家创新影响力研究

从效率差异视角构建国家创新影响力评价方法，揭示“一带一路”沿线国家创新要素流动倾向性以促进交流合作。运用DEA模型测算各国创新效率，根据DEA原理识别国家间的认可关系，构建创新网络并用节点特征向量中心度表示各国创新影响力，分析创新影响力类型、创新网络特征及创新投入冗余率与产出不足率。结果发现，各国创新效率存在显著差距;各国分别处于创新网络中心、核心和边缘位置，国家创新影响力依次递减;按照创新要素相对强度，沿线国家可分为6种创新类型;最后，提出沿线国家间开展创新交流与合作的必要性和途径。     

Does economic growth and energy consumption drive environmental degradation in China’s 31 provinces? New evidence from a spatial econometric perspective

The panel data analysis points to economic and social factors contributing to NO_x, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, and VOCs in China’s 31 provinces. The spatial correlation analysis using Global and Local Moran’s I values indicates the existence of a significant and positive spatial autocorrelation with respect to environment, economy and energy, and the high spatial correlation is evident in the eastern region, covering the northern part of Yangtze River Delta, Huaihai Economic Zone, and the lower reaches of the Yellow River Economic Belt. The empirical estimation is performed through spatial lag and spatial Durbin models. All emitted air pollutants in 31 provinces have significant spatial dependence and strong spillover effects. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between emitted air pollutants (NO_x, PM₁₀, VOCs, and PM_2.5) and per capita GDP, which follows the EKC hypothesis. The relationship between SO₂ and per capita GDP does not follow the EKC hypothesis. There is a positive relationship between pollutant emissions and coal consumption, which is consistent with current studies for various countries like Canada, Denmark, UK and US and regions like New York State. However, the effects of science and technology investment on air pollutants are mostly positive, which is not as policy expected.     

Close relationship with the supervisor may impede employee creativity by suppressing vertical task conflict

Leader‐member exchange as a form of supportive leadership is expected to foster employee creativity. However, empirical evidence suggested this relationship is complex. This study attempts to address this complexity by proposing and testing a curvilinear mechanism, which attenuates the overall positive effect of LMX on creativity by transmitting a curvilinear indirect effect via vertical task conflict. Results drawn from a sample of 276 supervisor–subordinate dyads provided support for the hypothesized curvilinear indirect effect. Specifically, LMX was found to negatively influence employee creativity by suppressing vertical task conflict for subordinates in high‐quality LMX relationships, while the indirect effect was not significant for subordinates in low‐quality LMX relationships.     

稻鳅共生种养模式试验研究

[目的]稻鳅共生是典型的稻田综合利用模式,符合生态农业发展方向。通过对稻鳅共生生态系统的生理生态学机制开展试验研究,为进一步推广稻鳅共生种养模式提供科学依据。[方法]采用田间试验方法,以水稻单作为对照,研究了不同泥鳅养殖密度下的稻鳅共生对水稻农艺性状、土壤理化性质、水稻产量构成的影响,并对稻鳅共生种养模式进行了经济效益分析。[结果]与对照处理相比,水稻长势在株高、有效分蘖率、根长等方面有一定提高。养殖田水稻株高增高了3%,有效分蘖率提高了8%~11%,根长提高了8.8%~31.3%。在土壤理化性质方面,与对照相比,土壤容重降低了7.1%~21.2%,孔隙度增加了4.1%~14.7%。实验前后养殖田内土壤有机质增加了3.5%~26.5%,对照田降低了2.5%~5.8%。土壤肥力(氮、磷、钾)减少,但减少幅度小于对照处理。稻鳅共生种养模式下水稻产量提高了5%~25%,同时稻田增收泥鳅1 725~3 375kg/hm2,净收入为1.836 0万~2.307 0万元/hm2,经济效益提高了3.65~4.84倍。稻鳅共生种养模式中泥鳅的养殖密度为30万尾/hm2时稻田的生态效益和经济效益最佳。[结论]稻鳅共生有效改善了土壤理化性质,促进了水稻的生长,提高了稻田产量和产值。     

工资对个人劳动供给的非线性影响：部门市场化程度差异视角

从市场经济体制的建立到经济社会高质量发展，我国不同部门市场化程度有所差异，劳动供给的部门异质性随之体现。基于中国劳动力动态调查数据，结合汉森门槛回归模型和劳动供给模型，依托部门市场化程度的差异性，文章探讨了工资对劳动力个人供给的非线性影响及其部门异质性。主要得出以下研究结论：第一，我国市场部门与公共部门劳动力的个人劳动供给有所差异。第二，工资与个人劳动供给呈现非线性关系并且存在部门异质性。实证分析结果显示，工资对个人劳动供给的影响存在三个"突变点"，工资门槛均使得工资"激励效应"加强并呈现逐步增加的趋势。第三，劳动供给的工资门槛存在性别、城乡和行业异质性。第四，随着年龄增长、人力资本积累，个人劳动时间供给趋于降低，签署书面劳工合同使得市场部门劳动力工作时间显著增加，而政治面貌显著影响公共部门劳动供给。总体来看，无论是市场部门还是公共部门，我国劳动力个人供给曲线均未"向后弯曲"，国民经济高质量发展、改善收入分配格局、提升居民幸福感等议题需持续关注。     

央行沟通与通货膨胀预期

通过合理政策有效引导通货膨胀预期对当前中国经济具有重要现实意义.本文用自回归分布滞后模型和EGARCH模型捕捉央行沟通对通胀预期及其波动的影响.实证结果表明:央行沟通传递的货币政策信息被市场有效捕捉和解读,实现了通胀预期管理目的,增加沟通频率能有效降低通胀预期波动;但央行的"言行偏离"加剧了短期通胀预期波动,降低了央行沟通和货币政策操作的实际效果;通胀预期存在分布厚尾性和右偏斜,市场出现极端预期的概率较大,且更倾向于预期通胀上升,通胀预期波动的群聚特性表明其具有阶段性自我强化特征.研究结论为央行沟通的有效性提供了实证支撑,揭示出的通胀预期分布特征对提高央行预期管理措施的针对性具有参考价值.     

Building relationship innovation in global collaborative partnerships: big data analytics and traditional organizational powers

This study examines how relationship innovation can be developed in global collaborative partnerships (alliances, joint ventures, mergers, and acquisitions). The recently emerging theory of big data analytics linked with traditional organizational powers has attracted a growing interest, but surprisingly little research has been devoted to this important and complex topic. Therefore, after developing the theoretical foundations, our study empirically quantifies the links between the theoretical constructs based on the data collected from chief executive officers, managing directors, and heads of departments who work in contemporary global data‐and‐information driven collaborative partnerships. The results from structural equation modeling indicate that the relationship innovation depends on the power of big data analytics and non‐mediated powers (NMP, expert and referent). The power of big data analytics also mediates the correlation between NMP and relationship innovation. However, mediated powers (coercive and manipulative) negatively affect the power of big data analytics and relationship innovation. The interaction effects further depict that analytically powered partnerships have better relationship innovation compared with those which focus less on the analytical power. Consequently, the contributions of this study provide a deeper understanding of mechanisms of how modern collaborative partnerships can use big data analytics and traditional organizational powers to co‐create relationship innovation.