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71.
湖北物流业与经济发展的实证研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
分析湖北发展物流业对经济增长的前项效应、后向效应和旁侧效应,阐明发展物流业可以促进湖北产业结构的优化。提高湖北综合经济实力。并运用协整理论、Granger因果检验定量分析了湖北物流业与经济发展之间的关系,结论是湖北物流业与经济发展具有长期稳定的协整关系.湖北物流业是经济发展的原因。 相似文献
72.
人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响 总被引:24,自引:0,他引:24
封思贤 《数量经济技术经济研究》2007,24(4):3-13
本文从空间和时间两个角度全面考察了人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响。结果表明,人民币汇率的变化会显著影响我国的进出口。但是,这种影响程度在1994年以后明显地出现了下降趋势。同时,人民币汇率变化对我国进出口的调整存在明显的J曲线效应,其中进口变动大致滞后于汇率变动2个季度,而出口则滞后1个季度,滞后期限均短于西方发达国家。本文分析了其中的原因并提出了相关建议。 相似文献
73.
R&D、R&D溢出、内生增长和内生收敛 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
根据强调知识与技术创新、知识与技术溢出重要性的当代内生增长理论,本文建立了一个将R&D和R&D溢出与资本积累之间、R&D和R&D溢出与总产出增长之间直接关联起来的动态模型。面板数据协整检验实证分析结果表明R&D和R&D溢出与资本积累之间、R&D和R&D溢出与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的正面长期协整关联。进一步的分析表明,R&D与资本积累之间、R&D与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的长期双向格兰杰因果关系。由此观知,R&D乃长期经济增长源泉之所在。另一方面,尽管资本积累或总产出增长并不格兰杰导致R&D溢出,证据表明R&D溢出格兰杰导致资本积累和总产出增长。这种由R&D溢出到资本积累和总产出增长的单向格兰杰因果关系意味着尽管知识与技术的跨国传播并非必然发生。其实为世界经济增长的重要动力。 相似文献
74.
Hans-Martin Krolzig Massimiliano Marcellino Grayham E. Mizon 《Empirical Economics》2002,27(2):233-254
There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In this
paper we present a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of part of the UK labour market since the mid
1960s. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model in which some parameters change according to the
phase of the business cycle. Output, employment, labour supply and real earnings are found to have a common cyclical component.
The long run dynamics are characterized by one cointegrating vector relating unemployment to trend-adjusted real wages and
output. Despite there having been many changes affecting this sector of the UK economy, the Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction
model with three regimes (representing recession, normal growth, and high growth) provides a good characterization of the
sample data, and performs well relative to alternative linear and non-linear models. The results of an impulse-response analysis
highlight the dangers of using VARs when the constancy of the estimated coefficients has not been established, and demonstrate
the advantages of generating regime dependent responses.
First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: August 2001 相似文献
75.
John Thornton 《Economics Letters》1996,50(3):413-416
Cointegration and Granger-causality tests show that real exports and real GDP in Mexico over 1895–1992 were cointegrated and there was a significant and positive Granger-causal relationship running from exports to economic growth. 相似文献
76.
We estimate quarterly cointegrating vector autoregressive models for the Eurozone and the USA based on long-run restrictions
derived from a dynamic open economy model. Three long-run relations between the Eurozone and the USA emerge: relative purchasing
power parity, international interest parity and a stationary output gap between the two economies. Generalized impulse response
functions show differences in the dynamic adjustment of the two economies. Due to the I(1)-characteristic of both output series
and the stability conditions imposed by the long-run equilibrium relationships, shocks to the model produce level effects
only, while growth rates converge to their long-run averages.
相似文献
Thomas UrlEmail: |
77.
VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) processes are proposed for modelling cointegrated variables. For this purpose the echelon form is combined with the error correction form. Procedures for estimating the Kronecker indices which characterize the echelon form and for specifying the cointegration rank are discussed. The asymptotic distribution of the coefficient estimators is given. An example based o n US macroeconomic data illustrates the procedure and demonstrates its feasibility in practice. 相似文献
78.
N. R. Vasudeva Murthy 《Journal of Economics and Finance》2009,33(2):176-188
In this paper, the recently developed panel unit root and the Pedroni cointegration tests are applied to empirically examine
the validity of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle (F–H puzzle) for a heterogeneous panel of 14 Latin American and five Caribbean
countries over the period, 1960–2002. The findings indicate that in these countries, the long-run solvency condition is maintained.
Finally, employing the Pedroni panel group FM-OLS estimator (2000, 2001), it is found that the statistically significant estimated
savings-retention coefficient for the panel is relatively small indicating that the F–H Puzzle is not valid and thus implying
the prevalence of a moderate degree of capital mobility.
相似文献
N. R. Vasudeva MurthyEmail: |
79.
常用于检验既定协整关系的统计量有tDF和tECM两种,但由于真实数据生成过程未知,估计模型中可能存在一定程度的协整向量误设,从而使统计量的分布特征受到影响。本文首先探讨tDF检验的隐含系数约束α=γ,即短期弹性等于先验长期弹性;其次分析零假设下两种统计量的分布特征,以及先验设定γ对信号噪声比q进而对tECM分布特征的影响;最后在局部备择假设下,给出两种统计量的渐近分布,并表明向量误设会降低协整检验的势,其程度与设定误差d正相关。 相似文献
80.