服务业对外直接投资的出口效应——基于我国微观企业的研究

文章基于我国服务业上市企业数据，采用多维固定效应模型，探讨和分析了我国服务业OFDI对服务贸易出口的影响，经研究发现：第一，服务业OFDI通过吸收东道国先进技术经验提升企业生产率水平和避开东道国服务贸易壁垒降低贸易成本，促进企业服务贸易出口增长；第二，我国服务业OFDI显著提升了企业服务贸易出口的二元边际，具体而言，整体上服务业OFDI会促进服务贸易出口增长4.82%，同时会提升企业的出口概率；第三，我国服务业OFDI"出口效应"存在明显的区域和行业的异质性，具体表现为：生产性服务业和消费性服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应"，其OFDI带动服务贸易出口的增长分别为5.68%和3.52%，而公共服务业则不存在显著的"出口效应"；东部地区和中部地区服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应"，其OFDI带动区域服务贸易出口的增长分别为4.97%和3.56%，而西部地区则不存在显著的"出口效应"。上述研究结论对化解我国服务贸易出口增长困境和完善服务业对外直接投资政策机制具有一定的启示意义。     

Do foreign exchange forecasters apply asymmetric loss functions? Evidence from three major exchange rates

This article investigates which type of loss function is consistent with the hypothesis that major exchange rate forecasts, i.e. the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the US dollar, are rational. We apply a comprehensive data set, which also allows us to examine different forecast horizons and heterogeneity of forecasters.     

庚子赔款的债务化偿付及其影响

庚子赔款是中国近代史上最大一笔赔款,也是以长期债务形式体现的赔款。本文对庚子赔款的债务化偿付安排、利率水平、支付流程及经济影响等进行比较分析。发现:(1)庚子赔款本金4.5亿两,是清政府 1903 年财政收入的 4.33倍,但通过债务化偿付,每年支付赔款占财政收入比重逐步下降;(2)按购买力折算,庚子赔款本金约占1900年中国GDP的2.1%;(3)与当时主要国家长期债务利率相比,庚子赔款4%的利率属于中等水平;(4)将庚子赔款与德国“一战”赔款进行比较,发现赔款本金和占经济总量比重,中国低于德国,但中国每年支付赔款的财政压力高于德国;(5)庚子赔款偿付对近代中国的财税金融产生深刻影响,外籍海关税务司借机成为独立于中国政府的“第二财政”,外商银行藉此强化其“隐性中央银行” 地位,赔款还催生了货币流通的“新周期” 和“新危机”。总体上,赔款的债务化偿付安排不仅受政治外交形势主导,也与金融机构特别是银行跨国经营存在密切联系。赔款的经济影响不仅取决于偿付总量,也取决于经济治理能力和财税金融制度。国家财税金融制度落后,则受到冲击较大。     

提高出口退税能够“稳就业”和“稳外贸”吗?

近年来,全球贸易保护主义抬头加剧了各国之间的贸易摩擦。本文以中美贸易为例,探讨中国出口退税政策在稳就业、稳外贸以及应对贸易摩擦中的作用机制。首先基于1994-2020年季度数据发现:中国就业的波动较平稳;净出口则呈现高波动特征;中国就业和净出口呈现弱顺周期。这些周期特征与其他国家存在显著差异。其次构建了一个含有不完全金融市场和价格不完全传递的对称两国开放经济DSGE模型,数值模拟发现:在本国出口退税冲击和它国技术冲击下,模型能够较好地拟合中国就业和净出口的周期特征,其中财富效应和由贸易条件变化引起的支出转移效应是主要的内在传导机制。借助模型对中美贸易摩擦的反事实实验发现:中国单方面提高1%出口退税时,中国就业增长0.05%,净出口增长0.28%,呈现较强持续性,提高出口退税能够稳就业和稳外贸;当中国提高1%出口退税和美国提高1%进口关税时,中国就业增长0.03%,净出口增长0.16%,呈现较强持续性,勒纳中性不成立,此时出口退税在稳就业和稳外贸中的作用尽管有所削弱,但依然有效。     

Foreign investment regulation and firm productivity: Granular evidence from Indonesia

When regulating foreign direct investment (FDI), countries often face a trade-off between pursuing national policy interests and suffering efficiency losses due to FDI restrictions. We demonstrate the presence of this trade-off in the case of a protectionist FDI policy in Indonesia. Using a yearly census of Indonesian manufacturing firms from 2000 to 2015, we link product-level changes in binding FDI regulation due to major regulatory tightening to changes in firm-level productivity. Controlling for an extensive set of fixed effects as well as potential political economy drivers of regulation, we show that a tightening of the regulatory environment was successful in reducing foreign capital reliance among regulated firms, and led to increases in FDI among non-regulated firms producing the same product. Despite compensating increases in domestic capital, regulated firms experienced relative productivity losses. This points towards either a less efficient allocation of domestic capital or a general inferiority of domestic capital as compared to foreign investments.     

Migrants and multinational firms: The role of institutional affinity and connectedness in FDI

We examine how, and to what extent, migrants in a host country attract foreign direct investment (FDI) from firms based in their country of origin (CO). Introducing the notion of institutional affinity, we argue that increased institutional affinity and increased connectedness of institutional environments of migrants’ CO and country of residence, make a location attractive to CO firms. Empirical analysis of FDI and migration panel data shows that in addition to the traditional factors influencing FDI patterns, there is a collective migrant effect on FDI, and this effect is statistically significant and economically meaningful for migrants from developing countries.     

Foreign aid preferences and perceptions in donor countries

We present original survey data on preferences for foreign aid in 24 donor countries from 2005 to 2008. On publicly-funded foreign aid (Official Development Assistance, or ODA), we find patterns that are consistent with a standard model of democratic policy formation, in which donations are treated as a pure public good. Controlling for perceptions of current ODA, we show that individual preferences for ODA are (i) negatively correlated with relative income within a country-year; and (ii) positively correlated with inequality at the country level. We extend the analysis to explain variation in the gap between desired aid and actual ODA, arguing that lobbying by high-income special interest groups can divert resources away from the median voter’s preferred level of aid. Consistent with this, we observe that ODA is significantly lower where policymakers are more susceptible to lobbying. Finally, we present a novel test of competing “crowding out” hypotheses. Self-reported private aid donations are negatively correlated with actual ODA, and positively correlated with perceived ODA. This finding is consistent with an emerging argument in the literature, whereby ODA crowds out private aid by enabling charities to forego fundraising activities and crowds in private aid through a signaling channel.     

Effect of Participation of Foreign Migrant Workers in Labour Market on Native Workers: Evidence Based on Change Noticed in College Premium in Taiwan ROC

Using Manpower Utilization Survey data for 14 years from 1999 to 2012, we applied the DDDD (Differences–in–differences–in–differences–in–differences) estimation method to check if rising presence of foreign migrant workers in Taiwan’s domestic labour market had any impact on employment opportunities and wages earned by native Taiwanese workers over time. We used the data capturing the effect of college premium (viz., the additional cost to be borne for getting admission into college) paid by the natives on domestic wage rate during this period. College premium is an indicator of demand and supply for educated labour and we intend to see if the premium has grown with time when influx of foreign migrant workers has grown too. From the results, two interesting phenomena caught our attention. First, labour policy adopted by the Government in Taiwan has played an important role in increasing the influx of foreign workers into domestic labour market, which resulted in significant change in college premium paid by the natives. And, this effect lasted even when instances of strikes and reported cases of labour disputes were relatively higher. Second, the effect of the policy has been varying across genders as our data shows that policy on employment of foreign workers has affected job opportunities of native men workers more than it affected job opportunities of their female counterpart.     

Private information in currency markets

Using daily abnormal currency returns for the universe of countries with flexible exchange rates, we show local currency depreciations ahead of unscheduled, public sovereign debt downgrade announcements. Consistent with the private information hypothesis, the effect is stronger in lower institutional quality countries and holds after we control for concurrent public information and for publicly available rumors about the forthcoming downgrades. Our results persist when abnormal currency returns are adjusted for global carry and dollar risk factors, world equity and bond returns, as well as local stock market returns. Finally, the currency depreciations are permanent, providing evidence for a link between fundamentals and currency markets.     

A spatial approach to the FDI-growth nexus in Spain: Dealing with the headquarters effect

This paper examines the effects of inward FDI on economic growth across the Spanish regions over the period 1996–2013, paying particular attention to the ‘headquarters effect’, namely that FDI is not always registered where it is effectively made but in the region in which the firm’s headquarters is located. By estimating a panel Spatial Durbin Model to allow for the detection of spatial spillovers, two main findings are reported. First, FDI does foster economic growth. Second, only when the headquarters effect is properly addressed do spatial spillovers arise. Hence, this effect is masking the impact of regional FDI spillovers on growth, which affects the reliability of the results and, consequently, FDI policies choice. Importantly, the results are: a) robust to the way of computing the headquarters effect; b) independent of the spatial weight matrix specification; and c) confirmed when splitting FDI into different industrial and service branches.