No Pain, No Gain: Rethinking the Telecoms Crash

This paper reflects upon the boom and bust of the telecommunications industry from the late 1990s to the early 2000s. Unlike the conspicuous burst of the dotcom bubble, the telecoms crash came quietly, but turned out to be bigger and more catastrophic. This paper argues that bounded rationality, decision making under uncertainty and the focus on short-term individual interest all played a significant role in the telecoms crash. However, this painful crash also had its positive effects. Executives, specialists, regulators and government policy makers should pay more attention to the fundamentals and balance the need for both short-term and long-term interests in approaching the coming challenges in the fast-changing telecoms industry.     

Market responses to publicly-provided information: the case of automative safety

Over the last 25 years the federal government has become increasingly involved in the provision of information on automobile quality and safety. Its release of National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data on occupant crash survivablity is a prominent example. This paper examines the impact of the agency's crash test results on the sales growth of tested automobile lines. Finding no impact, the crash data is then compared to privately collected insurance industry data on actual bodily injury claims by car line. these data sets show little consistency. based on these findings, we conclude that consumers's apparent disregard of government crash test data may well be rational.     

Market structure in mobile telecoms: qualified indirect access and the receiver pays principle

Scarcity of spectrum limits the number of competing network operators in mobile telecoms. In the United Kingdom a regulatory review is currently enquiring into the effects of limited competition in the mobile market. The European Commission is also reviewing competition in roaming across mobile networks in Europe. In the UK the industry regulator Oftel claims that the prices for calling mobile phones are too high. We show that such relatively high prices stem from asymmetric incentives. The convention in the UK is for the originating party to pay for a telephone call. If instead the receiver were to pay for some or all of a call, we show that prices of calls to mobiles would be lower. We also argue that qualified indirect access could stimulate more effective competition in mobile telecoms.     

Financial functional analysis: a conceptual framework for understanding the changing financial system

The financial system is currently undergoing a revolution brought about by e-finance, digital convergence, new market entrants and government-encouraged competition. New market entrants such as Apple, Alibaba, Facebook and Google come from industries such as IT, retail, social media and telecoms, and, therefore, do not fit comfortably within traditional financial institutional structures. A functional perspective might provide more practical insights into this revolution; however, the functional perspective has had a limited impact. This paper will investigate the benefits and limitations of financial functional analysis; probe the underpinning principles of sociology’s structural functional analysis; revisit Merton and Bodie’s (1995) six core financial functions in relation to new entrants in the financial landscape; and, finally, argue that in the new financial environment, functional analysis provides a more coherent and explanatory framework of the financial system for students and practitioners alike.     

Securities Market Macrostructure: Property Rights and the Efficiency of Securities Trading

This article derives securities market macrostructure from microstructuralfoundations under a variety of assumptions regarding propertyrights. Because liquidity effectively makes securities tradinga network industry, intermediaries can exercise market powerby restricting access to the trading mechanism. Fragmentation,cream skimming, and free riding reduce the inefficiency thatresults from this market power, but welfare would be improvedfurther by requiring open access to all trading venues. Implementingopen access in practice must confront a trade-off between reducingmarket power and potentially impairing the incentives of theoperators of trading systems to reduce cost and improve quality.Other network industries, notably telecoms and electricity transmission,have faced similar dilemmas, and the path to the creation ofa more efficient property rights structure in financial marketscould benefit from the experiences of other network markets.     

生产性服务业、制造业与经济增长的动态关系——基于中美两国数据的实证分析

选取1978—2013年中国的年度数据、1960—2015年美国的年度数据,运用向量自回归模型对中美两国的生产性服务业、制造业与经济增长的动态关系进行模拟和分析。研究结果表明:美国生产性服务业的发展对制造业发展和经济增长的短期效应比中国要强,且作用时间更快;中国的经济增长对生产性服务业发展的短期效应强于美国,且减弱速度更为缓慢;生产性服务业和制造业自身的发展是影响制造业发展的最主要因素;生产性服务业的发展是影响其自身发展和经济增长的最主要因素。     

互联网沟通与股价崩盘风险

本文采用2010年第1季度—2015年第3季度深交所上市公司作为研究对象,对“互动易”问答平台上企业与投资者沟通的内容与股价崩盘风险之间的关系进行了研究,具体而言,研究投资者提问以及董秘回复的负面语气是否能够降低相应公司股价崩盘风险。研究发现：首先,投资者提问的负面语气能够显著降低公司的股价崩盘风险,董秘回复的负面语气则与股价崩盘风险不相关。其次,机构投资者持股比例较高或持股户数较多的股票,公司股价崩盘风险与投资者提问的负面语气之间的负向关系更强。此外,进一步的分析表明,投资者提问的语气越负面,机构投资者下期的持仓越小,越倾向于卖出股票,且投资者提问的负面语气能够显著地降低信息不对称;投资者正面语气与股价崩盘风险之间不存在显著的相关性。本文为管理层与投资者信息交流机制方面的研究以及股价崩盘风险方面的文献提供了有益的补充。     

客户股价崩盘风险对供应商具有传染效应吗?

文章利用手工整理的2007?2013年800对客户与供应商均为上市公司的供应链公司数据,探讨了客户股价崩盘风险是否会通过密切的供应链关系传染给供应商.研究发现:(1)客户股价崩盘风险对供应商具有传染效应,且这一传染效应主要出现在供应商自身抗风险能力不足时.(2)客户与供应商的关系越重要、越专有、越稳定、越良性,客户股价崩盘风险对供应商的传染效应越强.这表明由于密切的经济联系,当客户股价崩盘风险较高时,供应商可能会受牵连而发生崩盘.文章的研究为传染文献提供了新的适用情形,也展示了客户影响供应商的独特路径,从而丰富了传染效应和客户供应商关系的相关文献.     

国有机构投资者持股能提升企业投资效率吗?

具有国资背景的机构投资者,对于资本市场平稳发展具有重要意义。本文基于我国2015—2019年A股上市公司样本,考察持股对企业投资效率的影响。研究发现,持股显著提升了企业投资效率,并且该影响在代理冲突更严重和所处信息环境更不透明的公司中更加显著。机制检验表明,降低企业内外部信息不对称和代理成本是持股提升企业投资效率的重要渠道。进一步研究发现,国有机构投资者持股时间越长,对企业非效率投资的治理效果越好;细分国有机构投资者类型后发现,致力于长期维护资本市场稳定和上市公司长期健康发展的证金公司和汇金公司对企业投资效率的提升作用显著,但没有发现“救市”基金和外管局旗下的投资平台对企业投资效率有提升作用。研究结论从企业投资效率视角为国有机构投资者持股在微观企业日常经营中发挥的治理作用提供了新颖的经验证据,对进一步提高我国上市公司质量具有启示意义。     

A comparison of different contract forms for consumers with switching costs and changed preferences

This paper compares three contract forms, including short-term contract with price discrimination, short-term contract without price discrimination, and long-term contract with price commitment for consumers with switching costs and changed preferences. We find that long-term contract generates the largest profit for firms. Moreover, we find that switching costs make the market more competitive when consumers have changed preferences, and the higher the switching costs, the more competitive. Our theory combines linear-city duopoly and switching-cost model and the results are consistent with literature, for example price commitment is valuable. Our findings shed light on the practice of different forms of dynamic pricing in various industries including telecommunication industry and airline industry.     

CEO过度自信、权力配置与股价崩盘风险*

基于沪深两市2006—2013年A股上市公司的面板数据,本文从行为金融视角出发考察了CEO过度自信心理特征及其权力配置对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现CEO过度自信会增大公司股价崩盘风险;并且,随着CEO权力增大,过度自信更容易导致公司股价崩盘现象发生。进一步将CEO权力细分为选择权和决断权之后发现,只有CEO决断权增大能显著加剧过度自信对股价崩盘风险的负面影响,且这一关系只有在选择权得到保证后成立。     

The Role of Firms' Collaborative Agreements in the Information Technology Industry Transformation

While most articles on firm partnerships focus on the firm, the alliance or networks, we investigate the role of collaborative agreements during industrial transformation phases. Observation of a single industry, the Information Technology (IT) industry, shows that the growth of collaborative agreements formed by industry leaders in the early 1990s can be interpreted as an attempt to absorb a major industry shock characterized by vertical disintegration and the emergence of 'divided technical leadership'. Such firms have adopted collaborative agreements to maintain their leadership by controlling new entrants in the new industry segments that have resulted from the disintegration. Partnerships became a strategic component of the new 'divided technical leadership' market structure that emerged from the competitive crash of the early 1990s.     

高送转与股价崩盘风险:抑制还是加重

本文以我国2003—2015年A股公司为样本,考察了公司“高送转”与股价崩盘风险之间的关系。研究发现,公司“高送转”能够有效抑制股价崩盘风险,相对于创业板,主板公司“高送转”抑制股价崩盘风险的作用更为显著。而且,“高送转”对于股价崩盘风险的抑制作用并不受公司财务状况和减持情况的影响,该抑制作用的期限超过了我国投资者平均持股时间。本文有助于加深人们对于“高送转”经济后果的认识。     

政府审计的外部治理效应:基于股价崩盘风险的研究

作为一项强有力的政府监管措施,政府审计的作用及有效性是一个重要的研究话题.文章利用2009-2015年审计署实施的中央企业审计事件,从公司股价崩盘风险角度,采用双重差分模型研究了政府审计的外部治理效应.研究发现,在政府审计实施后,被审计公司的股价崩盘风险显著下降.在一系列稳健性检验之后,上述结果依然存在.进一步研究表明,政府审计通过促使被审计公司及时披露负面信息,缓解了公司股价崩盘风险;此外,政府审计越频繁,其缓解股价崩盘风险的作用越强,而且政府审计还存在溢出效应,未被审计中央企业在审计事件发生后的股价崩盘风险也出现下降.文章对于评估和完善中国政府监管具有重要的理论与实践意义.     

机构投资者会主动管理媒体报道吗？

文章实证检验了机构投资者是否存在通过管理媒体报道来获取超额收益的行为。研究发现：（1）媒体报道对股票价格的影响符合“注意力驱动效应”,即媒体报道数量与股票超额收益显著正相关;（2）机构投资者会利用媒体报道的这一效应来获取股票超额收益,即机构投资者存在利用媒体来制造信息噪音以引导市场热点的短期炒作行为,进而验证了“主动媒体管理”假说;（3）机构投资者的媒体管理行为会提高其所持有股票未来大幅下跌的可能性,即带来更大的股价崩盘风险。文章将机构投资者行为和媒体报道进行了有机结合,拓展了相关领域的研究文献,而且研究结论为进一步规范机构投资者行为和媒体报道提供了经验证据。     

分析师利益冲突、乐观偏差与股价崩盘风险

"股价崩盘风险"是当前金融危机背景下财务学的一个研究热点。本文使用2003-2010年中国A股上市公司的数据,研究分析师乐观偏差是否影响上市公司股价崩盘风险,并考察分析师面临的"利益冲突"是否会加剧乐观偏差对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现:(1)分析师乐观偏差与上市公司未来股价崩盘风险之间显著正相关,且此关系在"牛市"更为显著;(2)机构投资者持股比例越高,机构投资者数量越多,公司存在再融资行为,以及来自前五大佣金收入券商的分析师比例越高,分析师乐观偏差与崩盘风险之间的正向关系就更为显著,说明"利益冲突"会加剧两者的关系。本文的研究对于全面认识分析师在资本市场中的作用,以及如何降低我国股价崩盘风险、促进股市平稳发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

国产化政策与全要素生产率——来自汽车零部件制造业的证据

产业政策是否有效已成为当下学术界的热点话题.文章聚焦2005年中国汽车工业国产化政策,并结合同时期的税收减免政策,利用2002-2007年中国汽车零部件和整车制造业的微观数据,实证分析其对企业全要素生产率的影响.研究发现:(1)整车厂商对零部件厂商的纵向技术溢出效应是国产化政策提升零部件企业全要素生产率的主要机制,但市场规模的扩张和短期内市场垄断程度的上升也使零部件企业产生了技术改进的惰性;(2)国产化政策对企业生产率的影响在不同所有制企业之间存在差异:内资企业、非国有企业更多地从整车厂商的技术溢出中获益,外资企业则更多地从市场规模的扩大中获益,国有企业生产率受该政策影响不显著;(3)国产化政策与同一时期税收减免政策之间的关系存在两面性.国产化政策下,受税收减免的FDI向本土零部件企业发生了更多的技术转移,受税收减免的企业本身却缺乏效率改进的动力.上述结论带给新一轮中国工业改革的启示是:国产化政策在一定范围内仍然是有效的,特别是对高端装备制造业等战略新兴产业,政策导向有利于为新产业主体建设打下基础;但是产业政策同样不应被过度使用,制定政策应该重视政策工具在不同阶段的有机组合,取长补短,使各产业政策形成合力进而保证企业效率的提升.     

STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS

This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.     

NON-CORPORATE SECTOR FINANCE AND FINANCING OF SMALL INDUSTRIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE NIGERIAN EXPERIENCE

This paper attempts to report the author's findings regarding the role of the non-corporate sector in providing investment finance for small-scale industries in Nigeria, through co-operative efforts. It specially underlines the role of indigenous social organizations and group relations in solving the economic problems of a developing economy which places emphasis on industrial development. Though these sources provide short-term consumption finance, they certainly constitute an inadequate source of long-term finance for industry in a situation where the importance of small-scale industry development is officially greatly emphasized, and existing financial institutions are designed to serve only the financial needs of large industrial enterprises. The role of government in the context of the dilemma of the small-scale entrepreneur is examined and suggestions made for improvements. The paper reflects what is probably the experience of many developing countries trying to industrialize.     

美国煤电合约特点及对我国的启示

从交易成本经济学的角度来看,煤炭产业和电力产业适合选择长期合约的合作方式。以美国煤电合约为研究对象,分析在20世纪80年代后美国煤电合约期限缩短(即由原来长期合约为主变为5年期以下的合约占主导)的原因。从以下三个方面对此现象做出解释:能源市场波动削弱了煤炭企业的谈判势力;电力市场放松管制增强了电力企业的谈判势力;其他政策法规产生约束作用。最后结合我国煤电合约现状,借鉴美国构建稳定煤电关系的经验,为缓和我国煤电矛盾提出如下建议:加快实现竞价上网,放松发电企业管制;完善合约条款设置;转变政府参与角色。