从南京在长三角领先城市中的地位看未来的强市之路

2007年,在国务院批准的《长江三角洲地区区域规划纲要》中明确指出,“逐步建成以上海一级中心城市为核心,以南京、杭州、苏州、无锡、宁波等副中心城市为支撑的世界级城市群和城镇体系”,对上海的中心地位给予了毋庸置疑的肯定,而将南京等五个城市放在了同等重要的“副中心”位置。本文中通过对长三角16个城市中处于主副中心的六个城市（简称“长三角领先城市”）进行分析,把创新发展作为南京未来的强市之路。     

上海、苏州领跑长三角服务经济

[本刊讯]日前,上海交通大学首次发布＂长三角地区22城市服务经济指数＂和＂长三角地区22城市公共服务指数＂。＂2011’长三角地区22城市服务经济指数＂的排名,前五位分别为上海、苏州、南京、杭州和宁波。＂2011’长三角地区22城市公共服务指数＂按照产出法和支出法排名,前五位的城市分别是：上海、南京、杭州、苏州和无锡。     

生产性服务业视角下长三角城市网络特征分析

借鉴西方的研究方法,文章建立了76(城市)×552(企业分支机构)的分布矩阵,从城市网络的层级分布特征、网络的空间关联和功能特征三方面分析了基于生产性服务业的长三角城市网络特征.研究表明:基于生产性服务业的长三角城市网络的层级特征显著,个别城市如昆山、常熟等城市不再局限于已有的行政等级功能,开始承担重要的网络联系中心的作用.从网络关联特征来看,传统的“Z”型区域仍然是网络联系的核心,但北部的南通、扬州以及南部的绍兴等也表现出了与核心区的快速融合.作为长三角的区域网络核心城市,上海具有绝对的连通优势,南京和杭州的覆盖面虽然不及上海,但也不再限于本地的地域服务,出现了向地区外扩散的趋势,城市间“水平联系”不断增强.根据不同类型生产性服务业所形成的网络特征的差异,将11个不同行业所构建的城市网络功能特征分为完善型、扁平型和专业型.     

长三角一体化借道金融业

据专家测算,上海对苏州、无锡、南通、泰州的经济联系强于南京,但对常州以及更远的城市的经济联系则弱于南京。以常州、泰州为界,长三角北部断裂为两个经济区域。在长三角南部,上海对嘉兴、舟山的经济联系强于杭州,但对湖州、绍兴、宁波的联系弱于杭州,同样存在断裂。如此局面之所以形成,答案主要在金融业。而解决之道,也在金融业。     

高速铁路对长江三角洲空间联系格局演化的影响

基于交通流视角运用首位度、功能多中心指数、交通流量重心和集中化指数等分析方法,通过ArcGIS等软件分析了具有"同城效应"高速铁路网络对长江三角洲空间联系格局演化的影响。研究发现:1日趋完善的高速铁路网络增强整个区域的联系强度,不同城市间空间联系强度有一定变化,特别是南翼和北翼直接联系的提升使上海的节点功能降低甚至是消失,促进生产要素的自由流动和城市的协同发展;2赫希曼—赫芬达尔指数的降低,功能多中心指数的增加,交通流量重心在苏州境内向南京—杭州沿线的偏移,都说明高速铁路交通流量分布更加均衡,整个区域正在由单功能中心向多功能中心转变,但是与欧洲莱茵鲁尔地区等城市圈还存在一定差距;3集中化指数的降低表明高速铁路目前存在递增的边际效用,在当前阶段修建新的高速铁路比提高已有高速铁路的通行频次能更有效地促进长江三角洲一体化。     

长三角城市旅游竞争力综合评价及其空间分异

在突出主导因素和可操作原则的基础上,系统构建了长三角城市旅游竞争力综合评价体系,运用熵权法对长三角城市旅游竞争力进行评价,采用GIS空间分析方法对其空间分异特征进行探索,最后分析其深层次原因,并结合旅游吸引指数对分析结果进行验证。研究发现:1城市旅游竞争力受到城市发展竞争力、旅游资源竞争力和支持竞争力影响,其中旅游资源竞争力对旅游竞争力贡献最大。长三角区域旅游竞争力整体较高。2长三角各城市旅游竞争力空间差异显著。旅游空间结构呈现以上海、苏州和杭州为中心,南京、无锡、宁波和绍兴为副中心的圈层结构,核心区与边缘区差异明显。3城市旅游竞争力与城市旅游吸引指数空间分布高度契合,存在明显的相关关系。     

长江三角洲城市旅游地竞争关系

旅游地之间的竞争关系客观存在,但区域旅游合作进程的加速一定程度上掩盖了旅游地之间的外显竞争。文章以长江三角洲地区的四个典型次区域为例,分析一定区域内部旅游地之间竞争关系的类型和实质,客观剖析旅游地之间的空间关系。研究表明,在长江三角洲区域内部城市旅游地之间存在四种不同类型的竞争形式:①核心辐射分流竞争,如外围旅游地与区域核心上海的竞争;②市场收益分配竞争,如杭州与苏州、杭州与黄山等旅游地之间的竞争;③资源品牌竞争,如环太湖区域内部旅游地之间的竞争;④区域功能等级竞争,以杭州与宁波、杭州与南京、杭州与黄山等旅游地之间的竞争为代表。旅游地之间的竞争也有显性和隐性两种不同的表现形式。     

长三角城市生态系统健康评价

随着生态城市建设的兴起,城市生态系统成为学界研究的热点.本文借鉴生态系统健康学的观点,以城市复合生态系统理论为基础,探讨了城市生态系统健康的内涵及其度量,构建了城市生态系统健康评价的指标体系,从而能够定量评估城市的健康演变规律.最后,以长三角具有代表性的八城市为操作对象,采用层次分析法进行了生态系统健康综合评价.结果表明八城市的生态系统健康指数排序依次为上海、苏州、杭州、南京、无锡、宁波、常州、扬州.     

六大城市紧缺人才培训将统一管理

南京、杭州、宁波、苏州、无锡、上海等6个城市共同发起成立的“长江三角洲紧缺人才培训服务中心”,率先拉开区域内证书互认、人才共育的序幕。 “长江三角洲紧缺人才培训服务中心”将建立三级服务体系。第一级为总的服务中心,办公     

长三角一体化新添动力

日前．南通市来上海“推销”构建沪苏通“小金三角”新型城市组团的战略构想,欲继长三角地区构建南京都市圈、杭州都市圈、宁波都市圈等城市组团后,形成又一个新的城市组团。区域研究专家表示,长三角地区快速崛起的次级都市圈．将为长三角城市群的发展增添新的动力,推进长三角一体化进程。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.