中国自然失业率的估计与应用 ——基于HPMV滤波的实证分析

本文利用HPMV滤波对我国的自然失业率进行估计,并且应用自然失业率对我国通货膨胀的特征进行分析.研究结果表明,我国自然失业率的波动性明显逐渐变小,实际失业率与自然失业率的变动趋势基本一致;我国通货膨胀的适度区间约为2.9247-5.7369%;我国通货膨胀对负向实际失业率缺口的反应强于其对正向实际失业率缺口的反应,具有非对称性.     

自然资本的内涵及其核算研究北大核心

我国国土面积广阔,自然资源丰富,根据目前的研究理论,绝大多数自然资源均具有价值,可转化为自然资本,作为国家财富的一部分。然而,目前人类对自然资本的概念及其自然资源、自然资源资产、生态系统服务等相关概念之间的关系仍不甚明了。文章梳理并比较分析了学术界及各大组织和机构对自然资本的定义,总结概括出适应中国现状的自然资本的概念,并对自然资本相关概念进行辨析,最后就中国自然资本核算及自然资源资产负债表编制工作提出了建议。     

我国自然失业率的测量与解析——基于1978-2007年数据

通过分析自然失业率的三种数理模型,采用比较静态分析与计量统计检验的方法,发现纳入工资刚性的凯恩斯主义NAIRU模型更符合我国实际.利用这个模型,在放宽自然失业率恒定不变和阶段性变化假设的基础上,测量了1978-2007年我国各年的自然失业率.1978年以来,我国自然失业率总体呈现上升趋势,到2003年为一个极大点;2003-2007年自然失业率开始下降,分别为9.25%、9.09%、13.1%、10.9%、7.15%.另外,我国平均的名义工资刚性度和实际工资刚性度分别为0.873、0.221.在我国,技术进步对自然失业率是具有长期效应而不是短期效应.技术进步倾向于减少自然失业率,而这与Pissarides等人在美国的研究结论是相反的.     

从我国经济发展战略看西部自然资本评估

应用宏观经济学、微观经济学和环境经济学原理,同时考虑我国尤其是我国西部宗教文化盛行地区自然资本的特点,首先从我国经济发展战略的高度,将比较优势战略和我国自然资本的分布特点相结合,引证出西部自然资本发展和保护之间的矛盾。然后,在我国现在的产权制度无法按照科斯定理进行自然资本的市场配置情况下,得出自然资本评估理念的新见解。最后,指出在宗教盛行地区比如我国西部进行自然资产评估时,需注意以自然资本为载体的文化资本对社会福祉的贡献,从而更加真实地反映出对自然资本这种公共资本的需求。     

中国各省市总资本水平差异实证研究

物质资本和人力资本是构成社会总资本的两种基本资本要素,其数量和结构决定着一国经济增长的速度和质量.在可比、一致的原则下运用永续盘存法估算了1995-2004年全国及各省市的总资本存量及各资本分量水平,比较分析了各省市间在资本数量、资本结构、资本水平变化等方面的差异,系统反映了我国资本要素的空间分布特征.     

基于广义资本概念的土地利用变化再分析

集约度变化和用途转移构成土地利用变化的两种基本类型.以新古典的边际分析为工具,土地经济学的集约度理论和地租理论所构成的体系解释了在经济活动中土地利用的状态均衡及其变化.然而面对新的社会现实--大量并无经济产出的绿色景观和人文景观与高产出的工商业景观并存甚而取代后者,遭遇了解释的困境.将自然资本与人力资本纳入资本论的范畴,并以此对其核心概念的内涵加以扩展:①在既定土地上受众多限制的自然生态系统与人类自身发展同样遵循报酬递减的边际规律.②一定土地面积上的自然资本、经济资本与人文资本共同构成其集约度.③土地利用类型的转换由三类资本生产的综合效益竞标决定.     

可持续发展的资本内涵及其关系分析

可持续发展实质是资本的结构优化和增殖的过程。从可持续发展的角度，对自然资本、人造资本、人力资本和社会资本的内涵和概念的把握做了分析，并从理论上分析了以上四大资本间的替代与互补的关系，以期对可持续发展提供启示。     

资本理论述论及启示

资本是经济学中的一个重要概念。从经济学说史的角度看,主要有十种资本理论,照射和分析这些资本理论,有得于我们全面准确地理解资本资金。把握资本概念时,既要把握其实体又要把握其本质;既要注重其自然属性,又要注重其社会属性;既要看到其一般性又要看到其社会性。马克思对资本进行了全面、系统地探讨,达到了资本理论研究的高峰,马克思的资本理论对我国经济改革和经济发展也具有重要意义。     

企业所得税和资本弱化防范对资本结构的影响

资本结构一般是企业长期资本价值的构成及其比例关系,即长期债务资本与权益资本的构成及其比例关系。本文通过企业所得税和资本弱化防范对负债资本与权益资本选择的影响出发分析了债务资本与企业价值、财务杠杆、加权平均资本成本的关系,提出利用债务资本成本的免税作用适度的债务规模有助于实现企业价值最大化的财务管理目标,扩大财务杠杆作用,降低加权平均资本成本,但增加债务资本须考虑资本弱化防范和财务困境成本对资本结构的限制。     

对我国商业银行资本管理问题的分析及建议——兼论新巴塞尔协议实施中的准备问题

文章在对国内外资本管理的研究现状进行分析的基础上,对我国商业银行资本管理中存在的问题进行分析,指出在认识、数据、模型、IT系统、绩效考核及实施等方面存在的问题,并提出差距分析、技术研究等方面的建议,为我国商业银行实施经济资本管理的准备提供参考。     

Capital Expansion, Endogenous Growth and Equilibrium Unemployment

A model is developed, which captures the interactions of unemployment and economic growth in general equilibrium. The economy evolves along a correct-expectations equilibrium path exhibiting endogenous job rationing, and productivity growth is driven by installation of new capital. Under the maintained hypothesis that the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour is less than unity, unemployment benefits are shown to shift up the whole path of equilibrium unemployment, leaving the economy with a higher natural rate of unemployment and lowering the long-run growth rate permanently. Investment tax credits financed by lump sum taxes on total income are capable of lowering the natural rate and raising the economy's growth rate.     

Capital Accumulation and Unemployment: A Tale of Two "Continents"

In contrast to much recent work regarding the causes of European unemployment, in this paper we emphasize the importance of capital accumulation. But unlike the few previous studies which have examined the relationship between capital accumulation and unemployment, we argue that what matters for the evolution of employment (and the unemployment rate) is not the absolute growth rate of a country's capital stock, but its evolution relative to other countries' capital stock. The empirical validity of the above statement is demonstrated for almost all OECD countries using quarterly time-series data for the period 1961–1995. More detailed evidence is also presented for Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom.     

Conflict, Effort and Capital Stock in UK Wage Determination

The paper is concerned with the determination of wages, unemployment and labour productivity in the UK. The theoretical model suggests that in addition to economic factors, historical and ideological elements play an important role in the determination of wages, unemployment and productivity. Particular emphasis is put on the capital shortage hypothesis. It is argued that capital scrapping in response to the two oil price shocks, combined with subsequent sluggish growth in capital, may be responsible for the rise of the NAIRU and the persistence of unemployment. The empirical analysis is concerned with testing the theoretical model, using quarterly data for the UK from 1966 until 1994. We use cointegration analysis for the determination of wages, unemployment and labour productivity. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Who is afraid of capital mobility? on taxation of labor income and the level of public services in an open economy

This paper deals with the effects of international capital mobility on the taxation of labor income and on the size of the public sector. It employs a model of the labor market where national trade unions set the wage level in their country and national governments set the tax rate of a proportional labor-income tax. The tax revenues are used to finance a public good and unemployment benefits. In this model, competition between the national trade unions caused by international capital mobility leads to full employment, and the governments supply the public good on the first best level. As no unemployment benefits have to be financed, the tax on labor income may decline with the introduction of capital mobility. These tax cuts may even overcompensate the unions for the wage decline.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CAPITAL STOCK, UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES IN NINE EMU COUNTRIES

The focus of this paper is to investigate the importance of the capital stock in the determination of wages and unemployment in a range of EMU countries and to compare the results across countries. A time‐series analysis is conducted in the case of nine euro area countries, which were selected solely on the basis of data availability and consistency: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain. The paper begins with a short review of the literature on capital stock and unemployment, before it deals with the theoretical model. This is followed by estimation and testing of the theoretical model put forward, using both time‐series and panel data. The results are supportive of the main hypothesis of the paper: capital stock is an important determinant of unemployment and wages in the countries considered for the purposes of the paper.     

Working capital requirement and the unemployment volatility puzzle

Shimer (2005) argues that a search and matching model of the labor market in which wage is determined by Nash bargaining cannot generate the observed volatility in unemployment and vacancy in response to reasonable labor productivity shocks. This paper examines how incorporating monopolistically competitive firms with a working capital requirement (in which firms borrow funds to pay their wage bills) improves the ability of the search models to match the empirical fluctuations in unemployment and vacancy without resorting to an alternative wage setting mechanism. The monetary authority follows an interest rate rule in the model. A positive labor productivity shock lowers the real marginal cost of production and lowers inflation. In response to the fall in price level, the monetary authority reduces the nominal interest rate. A lower interest rate reduces the cost of financing and partially offsets the increase in labor cost from a higher productivity. A reduced labor cost implies the firms retain a greater portion of the gain from a productivity shock, which gives them a greater incentive to create vacancies. Simulations show that a working capital requirement does indeed improve the ability of the search models to generate fluctuations in key labor market variables to better match the U.S. data.     

Vicious and virtuous circles — The political economy of unemployment in interwar UK and USA

This paper develops a political economy model of multiple unemployment equilibria to provide a theory of an endogenous natural rate of unemployment for the UK and the US interwar period. The theory here sees the natural rate and the associated path of unemployment as a reaction to mainly demand shocks and the institutional structure of the economy. The channel through which these two forces feed on each other is a political economy process whereby voters with limited information on the natural rate react to shocks by demanding more or less social protection. The reduced form results confirm a pattern of unemployment behaviour in which unemployment moves between high and low equilibria in response to shocks.     

自然灾害对长期经济增长的影响

本文构建了一个包含自然灾害的两部门内生增长模型。研究发现,自然灾害对长期增长的影响幅度取决于其造成的人力资本存量损失。同时,灾害发生会促使经济主体更多地投资于人力资本。本文应用跨国数据分析了自然灾害风险、经济增长和人力资本投资间的长期关系,发现自然灾害对宏观经济活动有重要影响,并主要通过影响人力资本投资行为发生作用。     

Venture capital availability and labour market performance around the world

This article studies the effects of venture capital on the performance of the labour market. Using data from a much larger sample of countries than previous papers, it finds more readily available venture capital to favourably affect both the unemployment and the employment rate. The magnitude of the estimated effects is substantial. We control for both endogeneity of venture capital availability and most major determinants of labour market performance. The results are robust to variations in specification.     

人力资本结构对经济增长贡献率的实证分析

建立人力资本结构对经济增长贡献率的计量模型,采用相关数据对该模型进行实证分析。结果表明：中等教育对我国经济增长的贡献率较高,高等教育相对较小。因此,建立模型分析不同受教育年限的人力资本对经济增长的贡献率就非常具有现实意义。