西南喀斯特地区乡村旅游与生态文明建设耦合协调发展研究

乡村旅游与生态文明建设共融共促有助于西南喀斯特地区生态环境保护可持续发展、改善农村人居环境。以西南喀斯特地区8个省份为具体研究对象,基于2010—2019年的面板数据,构建乡村旅游与生态文明建设评价指标体系并进行测度,运用耦合协调度模型和地理探测器模型,分析两大系统耦合协调关系及相互作用机理。结果表明：乡村旅游与生态文明建设相互作用强,且耦合协调度呈现逐年优化趋势,总体呈四周高、中部低,且以“U”字型由四周向中部逐渐降低的空间差异特征;研究初期为乡村旅游滞后型,后期逐步实现同步,并向更好的协调类型发展;两大系统耦合协调是受文化作用力、经济驱动力、产业聚集力、政府推动力以及公共服务支撑力等因素共同作用的结果,其中,生态文化的影响力最大。     

中国省域旅游产业与人居环境耦合关系及其障碍因子研究

运用耦合协调度和障碍度模型,厘清2016年中国省域旅游产业与人居环境耦合关系及障碍因子。结果显示:(1)旅游产业发展呈现空间非均衡性,由东部沿海向西部内陆递减,旅游资源要素是主要动力,人居环境水平整体较高且空间差异不大,北京人居环境水平最高,西藏最低,居住环境是主要动力。(2)旅游产业与人居环境大多处于拮抗耦合阶段,非同步性特征明显,山东耦合度最高,宁夏耦合度最低,两者协调度整体不高,以濒临失调类型为主,广东协调度最高,西藏协调度最低。(3)影响旅游产业与人居环境协调发展的单项指标障碍因子方面,人居环境指标的障碍度高于旅游产业指标的障碍度,子系统障碍因子方面,障碍度大小排序依次为基础设施环境生态环境社会经济环境居住环境旅游资源要素旅游人力资源旅游市场规模。     

“双碳”背景下新疆旅游循环经济体系的协调关系研究

为深入研究分析新疆地区旅游业、经济和碳生态的发展情况以及三者的协调状况,通过构建新疆旅游循环经济系统的评价指标体系,基于主成分分析法对三个子系统的发展水平进行测度分析,利用构建的耦合协调度模型计算协调度水平。结果表明:2009—2020年间新疆地区的旅游业和经济发展都呈现出健康向上的状态,而碳生态却呈逐年下降趋势;近年来,新疆旅游循环经济体系的协调度逐年增高,但依然存在较大发展空间;碳生态对于整个旅游循环经济的影响效果显著。该结论有助于更切实际地把握新疆地区旅游业发展、经济增长与生态文明建设,为新疆旅游循环经济发展体系追求共生关系和动态平衡关系提供借鉴,从而实现新疆地区绿色可持续发展。     

生态文明与旅游目的地耦合协调度研究——以婺源县为例

生态文明是旅游目的地的重要吸引和保障要素,而旅游目的地的发展则将为生态文明建设提供动力支撑,因此两者之间具有显著的耦合特征。文章在深入分析生态文明与旅游目的地之间耦合协调度作用机理的基础上,建构了两个系统的耦合模型和指标体系。研究中发现,在政府强力推动下,婺源县生态文明与旅游目的地的耦合协调度从最初的严重失调发展到中级协调,产生了显著的综合效益,而且两者的耦合协调度越高,其相互促进的作用就越大,呈现出明显的正相关性。     

长江经济带生态文明建设与新型城镇化耦合协调发展及动力因素研究

基于生态文明建设和新型城镇化的耦合协调发展机理,分别构建了生态文明建设和新型城镇化评价指标体系,运用综合评价模型、耦合协调度模型、相对发展模型和固定效应模型研究了长江经济带生态文明建设和新型城镇化的耦合协调发展关系及其动力因素。结果表明:①从综合水平看,生态文明建设和新型城镇化发展的不充分、不平衡问题突出,特别是生态文明建设。②从协调发展水平来看,长江经济带总体处于初级协调阶段,东部处于中级协调阶段,中部和西部处于勉强协调阶段。③从相对发展度来看,长江经济带总体和中部为低水平的同步发展型,东部为生态文明建设滞后型,西部为新型城镇化滞后型。④从动力因素来看,动力开发不充分问题突出,且地区间的主要动力差异显著。     

生态文明建设与新型城镇化协调度测度研究——基于全国各省份的数据

生态文明建设是新型城镇化的基础,新型城镇化为生态文明建设的载体。生态文明建设与新型城镇化必须协调发展,共同促进,否则会迟滞双方的共同发展。实证发现,中东部地区的福建、浙江、广东、湖南等省实现了生态文明建设与新型城镇化的优质协调发展,而西部地区的青海、西藏、新疆等省两者的协调度较低。研究认为,在新型城镇化发展中突出生态文明建设地位、新型城镇化过程中坚持绿色化发展的理念、实施新型城镇化资源环境保障战略,将有利于生态文明建设与新型城镇化协调发展。     

西部民族地区文化生态旅游发展研究——以红河哈尼族彝族自治州为例

西部民族地区经济发展水平较低,但拥有丰富多样的民族文化和生态资源。红河哈尼族彝族自治州作为典型的西部多民族地区,在旅游业发展中应注重经济效益和文化生态保护相协调,根据旅游资源的特点和类型,打造以自然生态观光、历史文化认知、民俗风情体验、多功能综合等模式的文化生态旅游;并在开发过程中考虑环境容量、社区参与度等问题,增强生态旅游和其他产业的结合度。     

中国文化产业与旅游产业协调态势及其驱动力

从产业融合视角构建文化与旅游产业发展综合评价指标体系,选择熵值法、协调度模型、空间索数据分析法和空间回归模型SEM,运用ArcGIS10.2和GeoDa工具,测算2008—2017年中国31个省市区文化和旅游产业综合发展水平,分析其协调度时空分异特征,并探究其协调度的动力机制。结果发现:①2008—2017年中国31省市区文化和旅游产业发展均值经历了以2011、2013年为节点上升—下降—缓慢上升的三个阶段,文化和旅游产业发展水平与政府政策条件有显著关系。空间差异上看,中国文化和旅游产业发展水平整体上表现出从沿海到内陆的递减规律。②2008—2017年文化产业与旅游产业协调度呈现波动上升态势;整体协调度等级水平相对较低,以失调—协调过渡等级、轻度协调等级为主;协调度省际差异随时间推移呈现波动性缩小态势,均衡趋势有所显现。③2008—2017年文化产业与旅游产业协调度全局和局部空间相关性均十分显著。其中,局部自相关格局呈随时间推移演化特征,H-H区省区范围扩大,但其区域重心依然在长三角地区,L-H区分布较为分散且范围有所缩减,L-L和H-L区省区范围长期保持稳定不变。④消费需求、市场供给、科技创新、政策环境、基础设施和人力资源均是文化和旅游产业协调的重要驱动力,消费需求是文化旅游产业协调的最强劲动力源。但政策环境的调控驱动作用尚未发挥,基础设施发展呈现出负向催化驱动效应。     

基于生态文明的西部地区县域经济发展路径探析

以生态文明为切入点，分析了生态文明与西部地区县域经济发展的相互关系，提出了基于生态文明的西部地区县域经济发展的实现路径，包括加强生态环境保护与建设，大力发展生态产业，倡导绿色低碳消费，构建生态文化体系等，为西部地区建设生态文明、促进县域经济发展指明了方向。     

成渝地区双城经济圈生态文明建设与新型城镇化协调发展研究

生态文明建设与新型城镇化战略相互关联、彼此促进、融合共生。通过构建生态文明建设与新型城镇化的评价指标体系，利用全局熵值法、耦合协调模型和相对发展模型，分析成渝地区双城经济圈2011—2019年16个城市生态文明建设与新型城镇化耦合协调关系。结果表明：成渝地区双城经济圈生态文明建设与新型城镇化水平均呈现上升趋势，成都、绵阳和重庆等生态文明建设水平高的城市往往新型城镇化水平也相对较高；成渝地区双城经济圈生态文明建设与新型城镇化耦合协调发展的整体水平偏低但上升趋势明显，各城市生态文明建设与新型城镇化的协调发展水平存在异质性；成渝地区双城经济圈生态文明建设水平较新型城镇化发展水平相对滞后，90%以上的城市属于领先型地区，且处于良好协调阶段的成都、重庆和绵阳与其邻近城市有较大差距，亟待发挥带动作用。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for Reality Mining

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Neurally reconstructing expected utility

While the concept of “expected utility” informs many theories of decision making, little is known about whether and how the human brain might compute this quantity. This article reviews a series of functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) experiments designed to localize brain regions that respond in anticipation of increasing amounts of monetary incentives. These studies collectively suggest that anticipation of increasing monetary gains activates a subcortical region of the ventral striatum in a magnitude-proportional manner. This ventral striatal activation is not evident during anticipation of losses. Actual gain outcomes instead activate a region of the mesial prefrontal cortex. During anticipation of gain, ventral striatal activation is accompanied by feelings characterized by increasing arousal and positive valence. These findings affirm the role of emotion in the anticipation of incentives, and may provide an initial step towards a neural reconstruction of expected utility.     

Duplication, Growth and ‘Total Return Economics’

Maintenance consumption is an expense recovered in product prices, yet also a source of taste satisfaction which must be exhausted, rather than reinvested, from the capital affording it. This riddle is solved in the duplication rules: the cost of maintenance consumption is recovered in pay and prices, but an equal flow is exhausted from the human capital of the worker earning the pay. The rules impact tradition in several ways. If output is defined in principle as value added, then it cannot also be described as consumption plus net investment without double-counting the maintenance consumption recovered in prices. Also rate of return in the stationary state is not zero, but is the rate sufficient to offset the exhaustion of individual human capital. The rules lead to new insights into economic return, and support an argument that all growth at the scale of closure is due to productivity gain rather than to thrift.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.