上市公司违约风险、盈余质量与银行信用借款——基于沪深A股市场的经验研究

本文从静态和动态两个层面研究了会计信息的银行债务契约有用性。实证研究发现,上市公司基于会计信息的违约风险越大,银行信用借款比例越低;盈余质量越差则会显著降低违约风险与信用借款之间的关系;而在区分了长短期信用借款后,上述关系仅存在于短期信用借款之中。进一步研究发现,银企关系的好坏会显著影响长期信用借款的比例。这表明会计信息能降低银行债务契约决策中的信息不对称,但其有用性却受到盈余质量和债务期限的影响。     

提高信息披露质量能降低企业债务违约风险吗？

债务违约风险对企业的生产经营和资本市场的良好发展都会产生不利影响，如何防范化解企业的债务违约风险引起广泛重视。本文以2007-2021年A股上市企业为样本，采用上市企业信息披露考评结果衡量信息披露质量，运用面板固定效应模型系统考察信息披露质量对企业债务违约风险的影响。研究发现：一是信息披露质量与企业债务违约风险显著负相关，即信息披露质量越高，企业债务违约风险越低，且进行一系列稳健性检验后，该结论仍然成立；二是分析师关注和内部控制质量分别作为外部监督和内部监督机制，对信息披露质量与企业债务违约风险之间的关系发挥负向调节作用；三是信息披露质量通过缓解融资约束和降低非效率投资两条路径降低债务违约风险。本文基于信息披露视角，为防范化解企业债务违约风险提供了一定的政策启示。     

无实际控制人与企业债务违约风险

基于2007-2022年沪深A股上市公司样本,本文实证检验了上市公司无实际控制人对企业债务违约风险的影响。研究发现,无实际控制人会显著提升企业的债务违约风险。机制分析表明,无实际控制人会加剧企业内部代理冲突,还会强化企业面临的融资约束,从而降低企业预期偿还债务的能力,最终导致企业债务违约风险上升。进一步研究发现,外部治理的监督治理和金融环境的资源支持能发挥积极的调节作用,当机构投资者持股比例更高、外部审计质量更高和分析师跟踪人数更多,以及当地银行密度更高、金融市场发育程度更高时,无实际控制人对企业债务违约风险的提升作用更弱。本文不仅丰富了对上市公司无实际控制人的研究,也为降低企业债务违约风险提供了新的启示。     

企业社会责任与债务违约风险——基于ISO26000社会责任指南的原则和实践的分析

基于 ISO26000社会责任指南的原则和实践经验,分析企业社会责任降低债务违约风险的内在机制及我国企业社会责任表现与其债务违约风险的关系。研究发现：社会责任表现较好的企业债务违约风险较低,因债务事项被提起仲裁和诉讼的可能性较小,企业积极承担社会责任可以促进债务契约的履行,降低债务违约风险。进一步分析发现,经营能力和信息质量在企业社会责任与债务违约风险的关系中发挥部分中介传导作用,而经营风险的中介效应不明显。     

破产重整对我国上市公司违约边界的影响

本文利用模型分析了债务重整对上市公司违约边界的影响。研究发现在一定条件下,公司有可能在资产价值大于债务面值的情况下选择违约以牟取重整收益,且重整成本和清偿率与违约边界呈反方向变化。因此为防范我国上市公司的违约风险,应该设定较高的违约边界。     

为什么使用外币债务？——中国上市公司的实证证据

本文基于中证800指数公司2013年至2015年年报中金融负债的币种结构信息,首次研究了我国公司层面外币债务的使用动机以及财务后果。研究发现,我国上市公司外币债务融资的重要影响因素为外汇风险对冲;国际化水平较高的公司更可能使用外币债务。另外,本文首次直接研究并发现了外汇衍生品与外币债务的互补关系。进一步研究发现,外币债务的使用能够降低债务资本成本,但人民币贬值带来的汇兑损失会抵消其低利率优势。本文的研究结果为我国企业平衡本外币债务成本(风险)与收益、优化负债水平和结构提供了借鉴。     

企业对外担保与股价崩盘风险——基于A股上市公司的经验证据

近年来,企业债务违约造成的"担保危机"接连爆发,而上市公司因对外担保所引发的股价崩盘事件也层出不穷,在此背景下,本文探讨企业对外担保与股价崩盘风险之间的内在关系,并对其作用机理进行了展开分析.研究发现,企业对外担保比重与股价崩盘风险呈显著正相关关系,且在信息透明度较低、公司治理较差和行业竞争程度较低的情况下,企业对外担保比重对股价崩盘风险的影响更为显著.进一步研究发现,企业对外担保引发股价崩盘风险提升的作用机制在于:(1)对外担保使得借款方的违约风险向担保方进行转移,加剧了担保企业的信用风险;(2)对外担保比例越高,管理层更倾向于通过信息披露采取机会主义行为——发布更加乐观的业绩预告隐藏公司的负面信息.本文拓展和深化了企业对外担保和股价崩盘风险等领域的研究,为监管部门、上市公司和投资者更深刻地理解企业对外担保的经济后果及其作用机制,提供了实证依据与重要启示.     

公司财务报告质量的决定因素—来自我国深沪上市公司的经验证据

结合我国新兴加转轨的制度背景,运用Lang&Lundbolm(1993)分析框架探讨了影响我国上市公司财务报告质量的因素;以未来现金流量的可预测性定义财务报告质量;运用我国上市公司数据实证发现,资产负债率越低,资本密度越高,成长性越低,股权结构越分散,亏损概率越高,未来现金流量可预测性越强,公司财务报告质量相应越高.     

股权结构、权益资本成本与自由现金流量过度投资

本文从导致过度投资因素的角度研究了我国上市公司自由现金流量水平与过度投资之间的关系;同时从抑制过度投资的角度研究了股权结构、权益资本成本与过度投资之间的关系。研究发现,我国上市公司的自由现金流量与过度投资程度之间存在显著的正相关关系;引入权益资本成本和股权"一股独大"和"多股同大"变量后发现,随着权益资本成本上升和股权的集中,过度投资水平下降。表明,过多的自由现金流是致使上市公司过度投资的重要因素,随着企业综合风险增大企业权益资本成本提高股东要求回报的提高,降低了管理层进行过度投资的动机;同时上市公司集中的股权降低了所有者与管理层之间的代理问题,降低了过度投资水平。     

银企关系、关系型贷款与上市公司退市风险 ——基于制造业企业的经验证据

随着我国资本市场对退市制度的逐步完善,提高上市公司质量成为当前资本市场的一个关键问题.以我国2009—2019年间在沪深交易所上市被*ST和ST的制造业企业为样本,考察了关系型贷款和银企关系对上市公司退市风险的影响.研究发现,关系型贷款可以显著降低企业的退市风险,而且银企关系越强,作用越显著,越能降低退市风险.为了进一步考察关系贷款方如何降低企业退市风险,从管理、监控和放贷三个方面研究关系贷款方的行为特点发现:第一,关系贷款方能够显著提高退市风险企业的经营绩效并降低其违约风险,而且这种"关系"强度越大,支持效果就越明显;第二,关系贷款方不能缓解退市风险企业的融资约束问题,但融资约束问题严峻的企业可以从关系贷款方处获益.因此,良好的银企关系可以提高上市公司的质量,进而降低其退市风险.建议上市公司可以考虑发展自己的关系贷款方,以提高自身质量来降低日常经营活动中的不确定性,这对于中小微企业尤为重要.     

金融资产配置与违约风险:蓄水池效应,还是逐利效应？

本文以2007—2016年中国A股上市公司为研究对象,检验了企业金融资产配置对违约风险的影响。实证研究发现:金融资产持有量越多,企业的违约风险越低,金融资产配置的“蓄水池效应”显著;在货币政策宽松时期,金融资产配置导致的代理冲突显现,宽松的货币政策会抑制金融资产投资对违约风险的降低作用。政府规制也会有一定的公司治理作用,将产业政策纳入讨论发现:对于产业政策支持的行业来说,企业金融资产配置能够降低违约风险,但是宽松的货币政策会刺激管理层的短视投资行为,抑制政府规制的公司治理作用。进一步地,本文提出会计稳健性的提升是企业金融资产配置降低违约风险的重要路径。本文的研究结论丰富了企业金融资产配置动机和违约风险影响因素的讨论,能够为政府部门防范经济运行中的内在风险提供有益借鉴。     

Subsidiary debt,capital structure and internal capital markets

I study external debt issued by operating subsidiaries of diversified firms. Consistent with Kahn and Winton's [2004. Moral hazard and optimal subsidiary structure for financial institutions. Journal of Finance 59, 2537–2575] model, where subsidiary debt mitigates asset substitution, I find firms are more likely to use subsidiary debt when their divisions vary more in risk. Consistent with subsidiary debt mitigating the free cash flow problem, I find that subsidiaries are more likely to have their own external debt when they have fewer growth options and higher cash flow than the rest of the firm. Finally, I find that subsidiary debt mitigates the “corporate socialism” and “poaching” problems modeled in theories of internal capital markets.     

Financial constraints on credit ratings and cash-flow sensitivity

This study investigates whether financial constraints, as measured by the level of credit ratings and their migrations would affect the firm's cash flow allocation policies and reflect the main financial constraints on a firm's cash flow sensitivity of cash. For a given credit quality shock, control for firm-level characteristics and endogeneity of cash flow allocation, our results suggest that firms with higher credit financial constraints have significantly higher cash flow sensitivities on cash holding, investment, and debt financing activities. Our results provide evidence that credit rating risk has a larger impact on cash flow allocation and drives the financial constraints on cash flow sensitivity for various reasons, including precautionary motivation and restricted access to external financing.     

Sources of Financing,Profitability and Productivity: First Evidence from Matched Firms

This paper contributes to the literature on capital structure and firm performance. Using firm‐level data covering over 11,000 firms from 47 countries over a recent period of 1997‐2007, we address the effect of different sources of financing on corporate performance, employing a matching process, which allows an adequate `like‐for‐like’ comparison between high and low level of financing by firms. Robust to different matching estimators, the main findings are consistent with the theories of capital structure, in that firms with high debt‐to‐equity ratio tend to have lower returns to shareholders (profitability) and lower internal efficiency (productivity). The results become more robust when we separate the firms into advanced and emerging country‐groups or countries with high/low levels of financial development. Given the lower level of leverage below 50% on average in emerging markets (or in countries with lower level of financial reforms), firms in these economies face lower risk of financial distress and thereby less adverse effect on firm profitability and productivity, relative to their counterparts in advanced economies. We also find that retained earnings and equity financing improve performance, while debt financing by firms particularly in the form of bank loans leads to lower performance, although not so in the case of debt raised through issuing bonds.     

Firm opacity and the opportunity cost of cash

This paper studies the causal effect of a reduction in firm opacity on asset liquidity and corporate expenditures. We employ the discontinuous requirement of financial reporting introduced by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, Section 404, as a measure of the change in the firm's information environment. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that firms that comply with Section 404 exhibit higher stock liquidity and increased access to external financing compared to observationally similar firms. Furthermore, compliant firms hold less liquid assets and exhibit higher R&D expenditures relative to noncompliant firms. This difference sheds light on the impact of SOX 404 on firm opacity and the magnitude of the opportunity costs of holding cash.     

Determinants of financial covenants and pricing of debt in private debt contracts: the UK evidence

This paper presents details of financial covenants given by a sample drawn from the largest 200 non-financial quoted firms in the UK in private debt contracts and analyses these data to see whether there are relationships between the nature of the covenants given and firm characteristics. Data were obtained from 72 firms, of which 17 gave no financial covenants. Firm size was found to be the only significant factor influencing whether firms did or did not give covenants as well as the only factor which influenced the margin given on debt. Some types of covenants given were found to be different from those found in previous research. In particular, there is greater use of EBITDA as a base for both interest cover and gearing covenants. This shows the importance of cash flow based lending as opposed to asset based lending for general financing for large firms.     

Effect of rollover risk on default risk: Evidence from bank financing

We study the effect of rollover risk on the risk of default using a comprehensive database of U.S. industrial firms during 1986–2013. Dependence on bank financing is the key driver of the impact of rollover risk on default risk. Default risk and rollover risk present a significant positive relation in firms dependent on bank financing. In contrast, rollover risk is uncorrelated with default probability in the case of firms that do not rely on bank financing. Our measure of rollover risk is the amount of long-term debt maturing in one year, weighted by total assets. In the case of a firm that depends on bank financing, an increase of one standard deviation in this measure leads to a significant increase of 3.2% in its default probability within one year. Other drivers affecting the interaction between rollover risk and default risk are whether a firm suffers from declining profitability and has poor credit. Additionally, rollover risk's impact on default probability is stronger during periods when credit market conditions are tighter.     

Firm dynamics and financial development

Using comprehensive firm-level datasets, this paper studies the impact of cross-country variation in financial market development on firms' financing choices and growth. In less financially developed economies, small firms grow faster and have lower leverage than large firms. As financial development improves, the growth difference between small and large firms shrinks, while the leverage difference rises. The paper then develops a quantitative model where financial frictions drive firm growth and debt financing through the availability of credit and default risk. The model explains the observed cross-country variations in firm size, leverage and growth in response to changes in financial frictions.     

Brand perception,cash flow stability,and financial policy

This paper demonstrates that intangible assets play an important role in financial policy. Using a proprietary database of consumer brand evaluation, I show that positive consumer attitude toward a firm's products alleviates financial frictions and provides additional net debt capacity, as measured by higher leverage and lower cash holdings. Brand perception affects financial policy through reducing overall firm riskiness, as strong consumer evaluations translate into lower future cash flow volatility as well as higher credit ratings for potentially volatile firms. The impact of brand is stronger among small firms, contradicting a number of reverse causality and omitted variables explanations.     

财务战略驱动企业盈利模式——美国苹果公司轻资产模式案例研究

本文首先明确了企业现金流结构是连接企业价值与盈利模式的关键变量,架构了"企业价值→财务战略(现金流结构主导)→盈利模式(轻资产模式)→商业活动与资本行为→财务业绩"的财务战略驱动盈利模式的理论框架。文章以美国苹果公司为分析对象,选取该公司自2001年至2011年间的主要业务经营资料与关键财务数据,从财务战略驱动视角,透视苹果公司持续轻资产模式运营的基本要点,包括实施简化生产和标准化零配件、快速供应链、极短的存货周转期、高额现金储备和营运资本、小额固定资产投资、巨额研发与销售终端投资、并购技术性优势企业、内源融资主导等等,这些轻资产战略的基本特征的概括既丰富了财务战略的理论主张,也给企业战略管理实践提供了许多实操性的启示。