"人地关系地域系统"学术思想与经济地理学

人地关系地域系统的学术思想是吴传钧先生对我国地理学发展做出的重大贡献。人地关系地域系统学术思想主要来源于吴先生长期对经济地理学发展过程、研究对象和主要研究内容的探究与实践,人地关系地域系统的学术思想已成为我国经济地理学科建设的理论基石与工作指南。近些年以来     

人地关系认知路线图

人地关系是地理学研究的核心问题.结合作者对人地关系20多年的研究,提出地理学人地关系认知首先要区分其研究的特殊性——建立人地关系“三元论”,从此出发探讨地理学人地关系的认知结构路径,包括“文化生态”与“生态文化”路径,“生态经济”与“经济生态”路径,文化经济与经济文化路径,从空间方面,要区别于经济学的劳动地域分工,建立地理学人地关系地域系统空间分异—全息地域分工理论.     

人地关系与我国西部民族地区的可持续发展

1地理学"三元"人地关系模式传统意义上的人地关系是典型"二元"结构,由"人"和"地"组成。人地关系中的"人"是指人类而言、包括个体的人和人类社会两方面。"地"是指地理环境。地理学主要研究人与地理环境在发展中的相互影响和制约关系。就此种人地关系的形式来看、与哲学的人地关系及历史学等其它学科研究的人地关系没有什么太大的差别。尽管有许多学者强调地理学人地关系的区域性、但在地理学人地关系的形式上并没进行调整。李贤彬等人提出了"人地协同的双股螺旋结构学说"'、认为人地的依存和谐关系是一种动态周期平衡一而非呆板的几何平行关…     

试论矿业城市研究的经济地理学理论基础

从空间结构理论、产业发展理论、人地关系地域系统理论等方面阐述对我国矿业城市发展产生重大影响的经济地理学理论基础;就企业、城市和区域的关系、接续替代产业的发展,以及经济增长与资源环境保护的关系等问题进行经济地理学理论层面的思考;论证矿业城市可持续发展的必要条件、主体功能区规划对矿业城市发展目标的调整,提出矿业城市整体发展战略调整和空间布局优化的基本思路。     

论新经济形态下经济地理学的发展

以知识和信息的生产、分配和使用为基础,以创造性人力资源为依托,以科学技术为支撑的新的经济形态已走近我们。新经济形态使经济地理学的发展成为可能。为适应新经济形态,经济地理学要重新确定研究对象、问题和任务,构建现代经济地理学体系和范畴,以指导知识经济的发展和合理布局。     

新时代“人地关系地域系统”研究刍议——兼议吴传钧先生的小事、大业

吴传钧先生是《经济地理》杂志的创办者,是杂志刊名的题写者。他是中国当代地理宗师、是中国人文与经济地理学的领路人。2018年4月2日是吴先生百岁诞辰。文章从几件直接感受先生处事待人的风采、直接聆听先生谆谆教诲的回忆切入,叙述了先生在专业方面是融会贯通的典范、在国际交流中具有感染朋友的气场,为我们营造了团结合作的团队文化,并反复强调"传承人文与经济地理事业的根本是首先学会做人"。总结和体会多年来吴传钧先生发展和壮大人文与经济地理学事业的经典要领,包括对学科交叉综合的学术定位和经世致用的应用定位,他提出做好学问的关键路径是脚踏实地,而发展壮大事业的座右铭是"学业并重"。在梳理新时代国土面貌发生历史性变化的新特点的基础上,面向新时代对人文与经济地理学发展的新要求,聚焦吴先生建立的"人地关系地域系统"研究的新命题,对四个方面进行了初步讨论,即:充分认知"不充分、不平衡"发展的人地系统表现与成因机理,系统研究符合五大发展理念的人地关系调控原理,推进"五位一体"、"四个全面"布局过程的人地关系响应规律,以及形成面向7大战略和3大攻坚战的人文与经济地理学成果产出。     

科学发展观的地理学透视

科学发展观是可持续发展思想在中国的新发展。"统筹"的五个方面处于不同层次,人与自然和谐发展的统筹处于基础层次,决定了其他几个统筹的贯彻与落实;城乡发展的统筹、区域发展的统筹、国内发展和对外开放的统筹处于操作层次;经济社会发展的统筹处于目标层次。人地关系地域系统是地理学的研究核心,人地关系理论乃科学发展观的重要理论基础。地理学在"五个统筹"的各个层次均可发挥重要作用,地理学的发展对于科学发展观的贯彻与落实具有重大意义。     

论地理学的研究核心——人地关系地域系统

地理学着重研究地球表层人与自然的相互影响与反馈作用,对人地关系的认识,素来是地理学的研究核心,也是地理学理论研究的一项长期任务,始终贯彻在地理学的各个发展阶段。从十九世纪末叶兴起的近代地理学发展到二次世界大战后的现代地理学,虽然其中心研究课题随着时代的进展而有所转化,但地理学的基础理论研究万变不离人类和地理环境的相互关系这一宗旨。     

论面向21世纪经济地理学教材的创新：兼论面向21世纪《经济地理？…

２０世纪８０年代以业，我国经济地理学界出版了一批经济地理学教材，这些教材在体系、内容和风格方面，试图从整体上把经济地理学重塑为具有独立研究领域、内部逻辑关系清晰、理论性强具应用价值的一门地理科学。但在建立完整的科学体系、反映经济地理学新进展等方面仍然需要进行改革与发展。面向２１世纪《经济地理学》教材，以全新的框架１、严密的体系结构，介绍了至今为止经济地理学的主要进展。面向２１世纪，在知识经济时代，     

论面向21世纪经济地理学教材的创新——兼论面向21世纪《经济地理学》教材的特点

2 0世纪 80年代以来 ,我国经济地理学界出版了一批经济地理学教材 ,这些教材在体系、内容和风格方面 ,试图从整体上把经济地理学重塑为具有独立研究领域、内部逻辑关系清晰、理论性强具应用价值高的一门地理科学。但在建立完整的科学体系、反映经济地理学新进展等方面仍然需要进行改革与发展。面向 2 1世纪《经济地理学》教材 ,以全新的框架、严密的体系结构 ,介绍了至今为止经济地理学的主要进展。面向 2 1世纪 ,在知识经济时代 ,经济地理学的教学应在教学目标、教学重点、教学方法、教学手段等方面进行创新     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.