省际交界区概念及其空间范围界定

省际交界区是区域经济发展中较为特殊的区域,且易被边缘化和遗忘的角落,其对全面统筹解决贫困问题,加快全面建设小康社会目标,推进城乡、区域统筹发展,形成合理的区域发展格局具有重要意义.目前关于省际交界区研究并未蔚然成风,其中一个重要的缘由就是对省际交界区的内涵和空间范围并未形成有效的统一性.本文尝试从边界与省界的内涵着手,深化理解省际交界区的概念,并有效区分省际边界区、省际边缘区、省际结合部等概念,进一步对省际交界区空间范围进行有效界定.     

中国居民消费发展变化分析与对策——以省际视角

消费是生产发展的动力和目的,对经济拉动作用影响巨大。由于长期以来我国重视增长发展模式,居民消费率较偏低,在城乡、省际、区域、阶层之间具有差距,妨碍了我国消费增长和对经济社会发展的贡献。本文根据相关理论,以1997-2011年数据对我国省际消费数据进行了检验,分析了区域居民消费的变化趋势,从空间和经济发展水平分析了不同省际居民消费的差异性,基于研究结果分析了相关原因,并进一步从城镇化、消费、区域协调发展等给出了路径选择。     

省际边界区域发展的空间结构优化研究——以粤闽湘赣省际边界区域为例

从粤闽湘赣省际边界区域整体的角度,以构建多中心城市区域的理念,提出了粤闽湘赣省际边界区域空间结构优化的具体构想,即以韶关、赣州、郴州成长三角为整个省际边界区域的核心,以其它6个中心城市为市域的核心,以经济基础好或交通条件好的县(市)城区作为县域的中心,构建7条城镇发展聚合轴和拓展轴作为城镇、交通和产业的聚集和依托轴,以形成城市空间功能互补,集约紧凑发展,绿色空间穿插相融,高度协调、网络化的多中心城市区域,以整体的优势参与珠三角城市体系分工,并力争在区域分工中占有优势。     

我国省际边界区域发展问题及对策研究

省际边界区域作为特殊的区域发展类型,资源禀赋、发展水平相近,在区位上存在天然的合作基础,但总体发展水平较落后。当前,解决省际边界区域产业结构趋同、资源破坏严重、协调与合作机制不完善、政策支持有限等问题,应制定区域总体发展规划实现统筹发展、加快立法明确省际边界区域的职权与行为边界、设立协调机构或打造平台引领区域合作共赢、建立复合行政机制推进边界区域经济发展、完善地方沟通机制推进区域一体化、发挥自身优势并加强边界区域间分工协作、培育边界中心城市强化辐射带动作用、加大财政投入促进后发区域经济发展提速。     

后危机时代中国区域经济发展态势与路径选择

金融危机对中国的影响是巨大和长远的,将影响中国区域经济发展的动力结构、区域空间结构、区域产业的转移与重组以及区域中心的变迁。后危机时代,中国区域经济的发展将着重在四个统筹下功夫：一是统筹内需、投资、出口三驾马车对经济的拉动作用、二是统筹东中西和东北四大地域区域经济的协调发展、三是统筹区域产业的转移与升级、四是统筹全球城市规模等级的重构。     

我国保险密度空间收敛的实证研究

文章运用空间计量方法分析了我国省际保险密度的空间相关性,发现我国省际保险密度在呈现出区域集聚特征的同时,全国趋同的趋势也在迅速增强.在运用三种空间经济计量模型研究了我国省际保险密度增长的收敛性后,发现空间误差模型是研究我国省际保险密度空间收敛性的合适模型,全国保险密度的收敛速度大约为1.5%.虽然加入WTO等对我国保险密度的区域集聚性与整体收敛性都带来了冲击,但整体收敛的趋势依然稳定,表明区域保险业发展水平会随着经济发展水平的趋同而趋同.     

中原经济区省际边界区域经济格局时空演化

以中原经济区省际边界区域为研究视角,选取衡量经济发展综合水平的15个指标,以2006—2015年的统计数据为基础,运用因子分析方法,结合ESDA以及GIS可视化等手段对边界区经济差异的时空格局进行了分析。结果表明:中原经济区省际边界区域经济发展的相对差异呈现出先发散后收敛的动态变化特征;空间上集聚特征明显,趋同效应显著,但随着时间推移,聚集态势有所减弱;局部特征上看,研究期内随时间变化,区域内部热点区范围有所增加,次热点范围有所减小,而次冷点区和冷点区基本没有变化。边界区各地市在区位交通、经济发展、边界阻隔以及政府导向等方面的基础和条件不同,边界效应中产生的"切变效应"大于"桥梁效应",基于此提出了促进边界区域双赢状态下快速发展的建议。     

论我国省际经济的和谐发展

中国经济在保持高速发展的同时,省际间的经济差距也在逐步加大。造成省际间经济差距的主要原因包括:区域天然要素禀赋的差异、历史积淀和发展基础的差异、产业结构的差异以及国家政策环境等。为此,建立各种专项省际协调发展基金,加大科技投入,增强资源输出省经济增长能力,打造区域发展中心城市,提高欠发达省区的投融资水平,建立协调发展机构等,将有利于促进我国省际经济和谐发展。     

湘粤赣省际区域城市中心性比较研究—兼论郴州市建设湘粤赣省际区域中心城市的发展战略

以湘粤赣边界省际区域为研究对象,在构建城市中心性模型基础上,对郴州、韶关和赣州三市的城市中心性进行了测度和比较。通过进一步对三市的各行业区位商计算,发现要将郴州市建设成为湘粤赣省际区域中心城市,目前还存在城市中心性较弱、产业结构性矛盾突出、教育、科技还较落后等问题,并就该战略设想提出了相关的发展对策及建议。     

东北区域城市空间重构与生态环境协调发展问题与对策研究

区域城市空间重构与生态环境协调发展是现代区域可持续发展的关键。在城市空间重构与生态环境相互关系理论分析的基础上,以东北地区为例,分析其不同尺度城市空间在重构过程中与生态环境之间的非协调性表现,认为以"增长边界"促进城市空间内涵式增长、以"分散化紧凑"调整城市功能空间布局、以"空间统筹"改善大都市区城乡生态环境、以"深度整合"保障城市群地区的生态安全是东北地区城市空间与生态环境协调发展的实现路径,并从规划指引、制度建设、公共投资、政策设计几方面构建两者协调的推进机制。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.