性别工资差距、资本积累与人口转变

本文通过在内生人口增长模型中引入性别工资差距随资本积累的演化过程,为解释人口转变提出了新的机制。经济发展初期,性别歧视程度较高,资本积累提高女性生育成本的效应较小,人口随收入上升加速增长;当资本积累最终导致性别歧视程度降低时,女性生育成本提高将促使家庭更多的投资人力资本,生育率持续下降。如果生产中物质资本份额和体力劳动比重越高,或者家庭存在性别偏好,那么人口转变的持续时间越长,程度越低。     

吉林省有效税率对经济增长影响的实证研究北大核心CSSCI

以资本收入、劳动收入和消费支出有效税率的视角定义税收结构更能体现经济增长过程中要素所承担的税负轻重。近年来我国税制结构变化大,有效税率的核算范围也亟待重新界定。对吉林省2004~2014年各项有效税率进行核算发现,吉林省有效税率结构不合理,其中劳动有效税率偏高,消费及资本有效税率偏低。利用内生增长理论选取影响经济增长的因素,建立计量模型发现,劳动收入及资本收入有效税率对吉林省经济增长影响为负效应;消费支出有效税率对经济增长影响为正效应。     

税制绿色化评估的环境红利指标构建及其应用

当前,学术界采用单一的环境税收入所占比重指标进行评估有其内生缺陷,导致某些情况下评估结果无法真实反映环境税自身的变化。因此,从环境税“双重红利”视角,借鉴弧弹性理论,构建一个间接衡量环境质量是否改善的红利指标——绿色敏感度。依据绿色敏感度可以把税制绿色化程度区分为深灰绿区、浅灰绿区、浅绿区和深绿区四个象限。然后,以中国排污收费制度为例进行应用检验,结果显示：中国排污收费制度的绿色化激励效应较弱,绿色化程度仍处于第一象限的浅灰绿区。评估指标与结论对中国税制绿色化研究和环境保护税优化具有参考价值。     

货币政策对收入分配影响效应的国外研究进展

传统观点认为货币政策是一种总量型的调控政策,但近年来国外学者有关货币政策对收入分配影响效应的研究越来越多。后凯恩斯主义学派的研究主要基于内生货币供给理论展开,强调货币政策通过利率调整这一外生变量对收入分配产生影响。新古典经济学派的研究主要围绕合理预期展开,认为只要中央银行制定的货币政策规则保持长期不变,且始终公开透明,就可以为人们提供公平的规则和平等的机会。新凯恩斯主义学派以菲利普斯曲线的研究为主线,探讨的重点在于劳动收入份额是否能完整地反映通货膨胀动态变化、货币政策是否应将劳动收入份额纳入目标考虑范围。从实证结果来看,大多数学者基于各国历史数据验证了货币政策对收入分配的影响效应。从传导机制上看,货币政策可通过收入构成、金融分割、资产配置、储蓄再分配等四个渠道对收入分配产生影响。从政策启示上看,多数学者认为,合理的货币政策可提高就业、促进劳动收入增长、降低通货膨胀,从而直接或间接地缩小收入分配差距、促进社会公平。     

基于CGE模型的碳税政策双重红利效应研究

以2017年投入产出表为基础,编制了社会核算矩阵,通过可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型系统地分析了在不同碳税水平下碳税征收对能源-经济-环境系统的影响,进而揭示碳税政策的实施能否实现环境保护与经济发展的双重红利效应.研究结果显示,征收碳税能够减少化石能源的消费,促进二氧化碳排放量的减少,且随着碳税水平的提高,其降碳效果更加明显.同时,征收碳税有助于产业结构转型,但对经济增长、居民消费与企业收入具有显著的负向冲击.在短期内,碳税政策无法实现降碳促增的双重红利效应.因此,为实现环境保护与经济发展的双赢局面,在实施碳税政策的同时应该辅以合理的经济政策.     

税收收入中性约束下最优环境税率研究

通过构建完全垄断企业与政府的两阶段博弈模型,对政府如何制定最优环境税率,实现税收收入中性约束下社会福利最大化及企业利润最大化问题进行了分析。研究发现：在一定的条件下,环境税率和其他税率越高,企业产出水平和排污量越低;当政府的税收收入较少时,环境税率与排污的边际损害程度呈现倒 U 型;而当政府税收收入较高时,环境税率随着排污的边际损害程度的提高而增加。据此提出环境税改革的建议：一是采取有差别的环境税率;二是将污染物排放的边际损害控制在一定范围内;三是适时调整环境税税率,并同时辅之以相对应的配套改革措施。     

我国环境税改革应以“环境红利”为首要目标

本文基于国际比较视角,将欧洲国家环境税改革的经验与我国实际情况相结合,主要从现行税制结构、社会保障制度以及劳动力市场等几个方面进行了比较,认为环境税的双重红利尤其是就业红利在我国现阶段实现的可能性较小,实施环境税改革应以追求环境红利为首要目标。     

真实经济周期与传统凯恩斯理论的比较——基于逻辑演进角度的研究

一、引言 现代经济增长理论经历了一条由外生增长到内生增长的演进道路,20世纪40年代末,哈罗德-多马模型(资本积累论)的提出奠定了现代经济增长模式的基本框架.20世纪60年代中期,索洛(R(Solow)、斯旺(T(Swan)、米德(J(Mead)、丹尼森(E(Denison)等人提出的技术进步论,为外生经济增长理论(新古典经济增长理论)构造了一个完整的理论框架.     

十七世纪“海上马车夫”的崛起

金融作为经济发展的先导,对资本积累与经济增长具有极其重要的作用,规范健全的金融市场以及合理高效的传导机制有助于金融通过促进储蓄和投资增长、优化资源配置、便利交换等活动,推动资本积累、技术进步和经济增长。十七世纪的荷兰,作为运用金融先导提速经济发展的典型,是如何通过金融先导为荷兰的崛起提供了强力支持的呢?     

延迟退休、养老保险制度改革与经济增长——基于创新驱动经济增长模型的分析

理解延迟退休和养老保险制度改革如何影响经济增长,对于制定老龄化政策和实现经济高质量发展至关重要。本文构建基于研发(R&D)创新增长的跨期迭代模型(OLG),将代际人力资本作为内生传导机制,引入混合养老保险体系刻画延迟退休和养老保险制度改革对经济增长的影响。理论研究表明,延迟退休和养老保险制度改革通过总量人力资本增长效应、创新增长效应和中间产品增长效应三条机制影响经济增长。数值模拟结果显示,两种制度产生的总量人力资本效应占据主导地位,延迟退休使得经济增长率下降,养老保险制度改革使得经济增长率上升。鉴于此,本文还考察了两种制度同时实施的经济增长效应,发现老龄化社会要实现创新驱动经济发展,应关注延迟退休和养老保险制度改革之间的联动关系,两种政策配合使用以实现更好的经济增长效应。     

中国环境税的功能检视与立法路径

环境税因其具有有效筹集环保资金、调控污染与破坏环境资源的行为、提高经济增长质量和维护社会环境公平等功能而领先于传统的命令-控制型环境管理模式。但在推行中可能出现双重红利引发偏差、转嫁税负影响减排以及重效率轻公平等现象,产生功能异变。我国政府确立了税收手段保护和改善环境的治理思路,厘清环境税所具备的功能、防范其发生功能异变、明晰新形势下环境税的功能需求是引导我国环境税制顺利推行的前提。构建符合中国本土化的环境税制、实现环境税的功能应当从健全法律运行体制、明晰政府事权责划分以及完善保障性制度建设等方面进行探索和思考。     

对我国开征环境税的探讨

本文针对开征环境税的主要难点问题进行了分析,认为我国环境税应定位于直接污染税(或排污税);环境税与排污费相比,在法律、征管、收入使用、税费负担设计等层面都具有优势,其中,法律层面和征管层面的优势是排污费改税的主要推动力;自行申报、环保核定、税务征收的环境税征收模式相对具有可行性。     

间接税亲贫性与代内归宿——穷人从减税中获益了吗?

税收工具作为财政扶贫机制中的重要一环,在推进精准扶贫、精准脱贫上发挥着重要作用。本文基于CFPS2012入户调查数据和中国2012年投入产出表,运用微观模拟方法测算出家庭的间接税负,在此基础上,借鉴衡量经济“涓滴效应”的亲贫增长指数,构建了识别和测度税制“亲贫性”的数量方法,评估间接税的减税政策能否自发惠及穷人,进一步测算家庭不同年龄层的间接税负代内归宿。结果显示:间接税整体上不具有“亲贫性”,其中增值税的“亲富性”最强,减税能让穷人比富人获益更多;儿童、成人以及老人均是间接税的负税人,贫困家庭抚养小孩而承担的间接税负比重高于非贫困家庭,赡养老人而负担的间接税负比重低于非贫困家庭。据此本文认为,继续推动大规模的间接税减税政策、采取差别化的增值税和消费税减免策略、逐步形成以直接税为主的税制结构,是改变间接税"亲富性"和强化税收扶贫职能的有效措施。     

The Ex-Dividend Day Behavior of Canadian Stock Prices: Tax Changes and Clientele Effects

With some simple assumptions the ex-dividend day price drop and the associated dividend can be used to measure the market's marginal tax rate. Previous research has estimated the implied tax rate for the U.S. This paper extends the analysis to Canada, where the tax treatment of dividends and capital gains is completely different from that in the U.S. The paper also presents estimates from 1970–80 to include four distinct periods when the tax treatment was different. Hence, we include an implied test of market efficiency as well as those for the “relevance” of taxes and the existence of tax based dividend clienteles.     

Dividend Taxes and Implied Cost of Equity Capital

We estimate firm‐level implied cost of equity capital based on recent advances in accounting and finance research and examine the effect of dividend taxes on the cost of equity capital. We investigate whether dividend taxes affect firms' cost of capital by testing the relation between the implied cost of equity capital and a measure of the tax‐penalized portion of dividend yield, which we define as the product of dividend yield and the dividend tax penalty. The results generally support the dividend tax capitalization hypothesis. We find a positive relation between the implied cost of equity capital and the tax‐penalized portion of dividend yield that is decreasing in aggregate institutional ownership, our proxy for tax‐advantaged investors. The evidence in this study adds to the understanding of the effect of investor‐level taxes on equity value.     

Environmental Taxes and Pre-Existing Distortions: The Normalization Trap

The double-dividend hypothesisclaims that green taxes will both improve the environment andreduce the distortions of existing taxes. According to the earlierliterature on the double dividend the tax rate for pollutinggoods should be higher than the Pigovian tax which fully internalizesthe marginal social damage from pollution, in order to obtaina second dividend. On the contrary, Bovenberg and de Mooij(1994) argue that environmental taxes typically exacerbate, ratherthan alleviate, pre-existing distortions. The optimal pollutiontax should therefore lie below the Pigovian tax. This paper pointsout that there is no real contradiction between these apparentlyopposing policy recommendations. It will be shown that the differencein the results appears because, implicitly, different definitionsof the second-best optimal pollution tax are chosen.     

World dividends and tax shocks

For a sample of 28,895 firms across 30 countries and 29 years, there is a negative relation between dividend tax rates and dividend payout. Firms increase dividend payout in response to both absolute and relative (to capital gains tax rates) decreases in dividend tax rates. This negative relation is robust to both increases and decreases and both shocks and continuous variation in dividend tax rates and affects both dividend payer status and dividend payout level. However, dividend payers do not increase dividend payout levels following decreases in dividend tax rates. The negative relation between dividend tax rates and dividend payout is stronger in countries and firms with better governance and suggests a dividend taxation elasticity of −0.45.     

Taxes and the global allocation of capital

Despite enormous growth in international capital flows, capital-output ratios continue to exhibit substantial heterogeneity across countries. We explore the possibility that taxes, particularly corporate taxes, are a significant source of this heterogeneity. The evidence is mixed. Tax rates computed from tax revenue are inversely correlated with capital-output ratios, as we might expect. However, effective tax rates constructed from official tax rates show little relation to capital—or to revenue-based tax measures. The stark difference between these two tax measures remains an open issue.     

BAD taxation: Disintermediation and illiquidity in a bank account debits tax model

This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to study the economic effects of bank account debits (BAD) taxation. Australia and various Latin American countries have levied or levy BAD taxes. Aspects such as financial disintermediation, market illiquidity, and impacts on dividend and interest rates are considered. Part of the BAD tax revenue may be fictitious, due to increased interest payments on government debt. The Brazilian BAD tax (CPMF) experience is evaluated. The empirical analysis confirms some theoretical predictions. Incidence base over GDP appears to be sensitive to the tax rate, possibly engendering a Laffer curve. The tax may also cause real interest rates to increase. Furthermore, the deadweight losses are relatively large, even if revenues are small. The theoretical and empirical results suggest that the BAD tax is not adequate for revenue collection. JEL Code E62 · H20     

DIVIDEND POLICY AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE UNDER THE IMPUTATION TAX SYSTEM: SOME CLARIFYING COMMENTS

This paper analyses the effects of the imputation and capital gains taxes on the dividend and financing decisions of Australian companies. We develop a framework, consistent with Miller's [1977] approach, in which interactions between dividend and financing decisions can be explored. The significance of these interactions depends on both corporate dividend policy and on the relationship between personal and corporate income tax rates. We conclude that under imputation, dividend decisions are more important relative to capital structure decisions, than under the classical tax system.