The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy

How and under what circumstances can adjusting the inflation target serve as a stabilization-policy tool and contribute to welfare improvement? We answer these questions quantitatively with a standard New Keynesian model that includes cost-push-type shocks. Our proposed inflation target rule calls for the target to be adjusted in a persistent manner and in the opposite direction to the realization of a cost-push shock, which is essentially a makeup strategy. The inflation target rule, combined with a Taylor-type rule, significantly reduces inflation fluctuations originating from cost-push shocks and mitigates the stabilization trade-off, resulting in a similar level of welfare to that associated with the Ramsey optimal policy.     

人工智能发展对通胀动态的影响及政策挑战——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

人工智能的发展是生产力进步的表现，但广泛使用人工智能技术的经济效应尚待深入研究。基于人工智能对劳动的替代作用，将人工智能投资引入动态随机一般均衡模型，通过比较静态分析和短期动态分析考察人工智能发展对通胀动态的影响。稳态分析表明：人工智能投资效率提高和使用范围扩大均会提升劳动生产率进而提高产出水平，但对长期或趋势通胀没有影响；在人工智能发展初级阶段人工智能的发展会引起实际工资下降，而在相对高级阶段人工智能的发展会引起实际工资上升。短期动态分析显示：人工智能发展水平的提高，无论是投资效率的提高还是使用范围的扩大，都会导致通胀及实际边际成本对偏好冲击和技术冲击等外生冲击的反应变弱。人工智能的发展会使通胀动态与实际经济活动变化间的联系减弱，其原因是人工智能对劳动的替代作用使工资调整不再是应对外生冲击的必然选择，进而改变了外生冲击通过影响工资来影响通胀的传导机制。因此，发展人工智能在促进生产率提升和产出增长的同时，还会改变宏观经济变量间的传导机制，进而对通胀等政策调控目标变量的准确预测以及政策调整和实施的有效性带来新的挑战，也为金融理论研究提出新的课题。     

The nature of trade,global production fragmentation and inflationary dynamics: Cross-country evidence

This study investigates under which circumstances trade has impact on inflation dynamics by examining the independent effects of trade intensity, intra-industry trade and trade on value added. Trade in goods is decomposed into consumption (final) goods and intermediate inputs to deepen the assessment of the role of the globalisation of production activities on inflation dynamics. Open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) analyses suggest that inflation is sensitive to domestic factors and that the relevance of external factors changes with respect to the nature of trade, country groups and time. Vertical intra-industry trade in intermediate inputs and value-added trade play important role, whereas final goods trade has no statistically significant effect on inflation dynamics.     

Is the unemployment–inflation trade-off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so

The unemployment–inflation trade-off can be interpreted as a proposition concerning the response of these two variables to aggregate demand shocks. In this paper, we study the possible presence of the trade-off in the Euro Area and in a wide group of Euro-area countries in the last 20 years, that is, since the start of EMU. We use the structural VAR methodology that allows the separation between supply and demand shocks. Our main finding is that the existence of a trade-off is largely confirmed both at the Euro Area and at the national level. Nevertheless, the size of the trade-off, measured at different horizons, shows some heterogeneity among countries. No less important, when we augment the VAR model by introducing monetary policy in the context of an open economy, we find that monetary policy shocks push inflation and unemployment in opposite directions in the currency area. Another interesting result concerns the evidence of a relatively flat relation between unemployment and inflation, conditionally to monetary policy shocks. The bulk of these conclusions seem to be confirmed by a number of robustness checks.     

Forecasting using heterogeneous panels with cross-sectional dependence

In this paper, we focus on forecasting methods that use heterogeneous panels in the presence of cross-sectional dependence in terms of both spatial error dependence and common factors. We propose two main approaches to estimating the factor structure: a residuals-based approach, and an approach that uses a panel of auxiliary variables to extract the factors. Small sample properties of the proposed methods are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations and applied to predict house price inflation in OECD countries.     

基于市场预期行为的货币政策透明度检验

通过考察金融市场参与者的行为变化或分析市场利率在政策公告后的变化趋势,可以间接对货币政策透明度进行度量;利用相应的货币政策透明度检验模型和我国金融市场的利率数据进行检验,可知我国中央银行在基准利率调整和准备金率改变等重大的政策决策上,货币当局更倾向于采用模糊的政策操作方式,由此会导致市场预期的混乱,并最终对政策实施效果产生负面影响,因此,我国有必要借鉴西方国家的政策操作经验,进一步增加政策操作方面的透明度,并借以最终建立一个简单透明、效率更高的政策调控框架。     

央行外汇市场干预与协调国内货币政策

我国央行的汇率政策目标已演变成稳定汇率的单一目标,央行频繁地对外汇市场进行冲销干预,使人民币对美元的名义汇率处于超稳定状态,这种汇率政策的施行与国内货币政策目标可能协调,也可能发生冲突。国家应采取综合治理的办法,提高人民币汇率波动的弹性,大力发展债券市场回购,以加强对基础货币的调控     

论如何同时降低通货膨胀率和失业率——菲利普斯曲线的微观经济基础及其移动

菲利普斯曲线有其微观经济基础。菲利普斯曲线描述的货币工资变化率与失业率之间的关系取决于失业工人随机寻找工作的经济决策、在岗工人与公司之间的博弈行为、工会势力与公司讨价还价力量的均衡、公司调整产品价格和工人工资的决定、劳动供给曲线的斜率等。以此为理论基础,通过对工作报价、最低工资预期水平、搜寻工作的效率、工会势力和公司势力、辞职率与临时解雇率、生产技术效率、劳动周转率、劳动市场分隔及其不平衡等因素进行政策性调节,可以使菲利普斯曲线整体性向左下方移动,从而同时降低通货膨胀率与失业率。     

中国通货膨胀持续性的非对称特征研究--基于分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根的研究

基于1990－2013年中国月度CPI数据,本文通过运用分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根检验方法,研究了中国通货膨胀惯性的非对称特征,并分析了不同分位点上的通货膨胀惯性系数、单位根检验结果和半衰期。结果发现：中国的通货膨胀持续期存在明显的非对称特征,1998年之后通货膨胀持续性要显著低于1998年之前;相比于高通货膨胀水平,低通货膨胀水平上的通货膨胀持续性要显著降低。     

BQ分解在核心通货膨胀中的应用研究

文章对Blanchard and Quah趋势分解（BQ分解）在核心通货膨胀中的应用进行了深入的研究,并针对其在应用中所存在的问题提出相应的解决方案。 BQ分解是根据菲利普斯曲线理论发展而来的,主要用于对多维变量的趋势分解。研究表明,两维var模型的BQ分解通常是充分可解的。但是多维BQ分解由于自身的结构性原因,并不能保证一定可解出有意义的实数解。文章也证明了文献中所提出为了解决该问题的Cholesky分解,其与BQ分解相互矛盾而不可采用,所以文章推荐采用校准的方法。实证表明,由校准BQ分解所得到的核心通货膨胀完全满足理论和实践对它的要求,能够预测CPI指数的发展趋势,所以作为解决多维BQ分解无法正常求解时的备选方法,校准是一种便捷而有效的方法。