The Bullionist Controversy: Theory and New Evidence

The Bullionist Controversy in the United Kingdom is one of the first debates about the determination of the price level and the exchange rate under a paper money standard. Despite the importance of the debate in the development of monetary theory, there remains little empirical evidence that uses modern, multivariate time series techniques. The evidence that does exist provides support for the Anti‐Bullionist position. The purpose of this paper is to review the debate and develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that is capable of capturing key features of the nineteenth‐century British financial system. The model is estimated using Bayesian procedures to test the competing hypotheses. The paper provides support for the Bullionist position.     

Enhanced Special Drawing Rights: How China Could Contribute to a Reformed International Monetary Architecture

Since the end of the Bretton Woods era, the world has operated on a de facto system of free‐floating exchange rates, with the US dollar as the dominant international currency. The system, characterized by large pro‐cyclical capital flows and chronic imbalances, is inherently unstable, and has contributed to repeated crises, recessions and geopolitical tensions. One potentially “least‐difficult” line of reform would be to allow the evolution of a multi‐currency system, underpinned by an expanded role for Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Attempts to promote wider use of the SDR have foundered on the liquidity premium. However, for Chinese corporations and institutions, at present restricted in their capital account activities, the SDR liquidity premium would appear less daunting. The Chinese authorities could provide policy encouragement for the use of SDRs by their institutions. This initiative, supported by China's Special Administrative Region Hong Kong, would kick‐start an international SDR ecosystem, and encourage even broader use of SDRs, to the benefit of international monetary stability.     

Drawing care: the illustrated journal’s “path to place”

ABSTRACT

Naturalists argue that the greatest threat to the natural world may be our “extinction of experience” with it. We know that place matters, but what can work to restore care between people and place? In this article, I will argue that illustrated journals can reinvigorate our experience with the world. By including text and image, science and art, illustrated journals incorporate different ways of knowing. Drawing draws us into the world as we pay attention to easily missed details. Writing complements drawing by providing a space for synthesizing or imagining about the observed. Like any skilled practice, journaling transforms our understanding of the world. My illustrated field journals began when I sensed that care for today’s world demanded more tools than what my training as an ecologist, alone, could offer. Illustrated journaling can begin with a few simple drawing and writing exercises – several of which I will describe in this article. As an immersive practice in place, the process of illustrated journals matters more than the product. Page by page, illustrated journals recognize the interpretive encounters so foundational to worldmaking and, in doing so, cultivate the deep attention to, and experience of, the world that is our first step toward care.     

Oil price and Gulf Corporation Council stock indices: New evidence from time-varying copula models

Using a time-varying GJR copula approach, we determine the conditional dependence of the GCC stock indices on oil price between 2007 and 2016. We show how to improve the forecasting accuracy of the co-movement of energy and stock prices in an equally weighted portfolio. Contrary to prior findings, we demonstrate that due to the different co-movements across the GCC stock indices, portfolios of oil assets and several GCC stocks are less likely to be affected by systemic risk. The different co-movements across several stock indices over time provide different entry and exit points for stock investors. This approach is in line with the ‘buy low/sell high’ adage.     

FINANCE,DISTRIBUTION AND THE ECONOMIC OBJECTIVE OF FINANCIAL COOPERATIVE INSTITUTIONS

This paper proposes a model where the structure rather than the size of the financial sector explains its influence on income distribution. Because of information asymmetries, a financial sector dominated solely by profit‐maximizing financial intermediaries will increase income and wealth inequality as it gives preferential access to credit for high‐income agents, whereas a diversified inclusive financial sector with alternative models of finance, like cooperatives, will reduce the inequality gap. No full convergence in income distribution can be realized through finance only and there is still a need for redistribution policies. Accordingly, an objective function for cooperative financial institutions should define a desired pricing behaviour that can increase the income of members at a rate higher than the average growth rate of the economy.     

基于G1法的飞行签派员资质能力评估

为了强化飞行签派员的人员资质管理,提升签派员的运行控制能力,保证民航行业持续稳定安全,结合法规和国航西南分公司运行控制中心的考核制度,从知识、技能、从业经验、专业任职资格、业绩成果及工作态度等6个方面构建了飞行签派员能力评估体系,采用G1法确定指标权重并进行综合打分,以国航"7·10"误关组件导致座舱失压后继续飞行事件为例,对评估指标进行实例验证,为航空公司评估飞行签派员资质能力提供了一套实际可用的量化指标和系统化评估方法。     

India's Economic Reforms: Achievements and Next Steps

This paper reviews the impact of India's reforms since 1991 on the performance of the Indian economy. It shows that the reforms definitely achieved a significant acceleration in growth and they also succeeded in reducing poverty. However, they have been less successful in generating good quality jobs. There was progress in providing better access to education, health services ,and clean drinking water and sanitation, but less than was hoped. The area where performance has been most disappointing is environmental sustainability. The paper concludes by identifying some of the critical policy challenges in the years ahead.     

Sparse estimation of dynamic principal components for forecasting high-dimensional time series

We present the sparse estimation of one-sided dynamic principal components (ODPCs) to forecast high-dimensional time series. The forecast can be made directly with the ODPCs or by using them as estimates of the factors in a generalized dynamic factor model. It is shown that a large reduction in the number of parameters estimated for the ODPCs can be achieved without affecting their forecasting performance.     

基于库存理论的铁路始发直达运输产品设计

将库存理论运用到铁路始发直达运输产品设计,能够有效实现运输服务组织成本与库存成本的有机统一。为实现库存成本在铁路始发直达运输中的加载,在考虑周期非完整情况下的库存成本的同时,将铁路运输和库存成本纳入同一目标函数,在装卸车地库存能力约束下,构建基于库存理论的铁路始发直达运输产品设计模型,确定成本最小的铁路始发直达运输产品设计方案。以赤峰地区至山东省煤炭运输网络为例,设计方案有效降低了成本,有助于吸引客户选择铁路运输,以及辅助铁路运营单位研究调整始发直达运输产品方案。