城乡建设用地增减挂钩潜力分析——以新疆玛纳斯县为例

城乡建设用地增减挂钩潜力分析是在当前的标准和要求下对农村居民点建设用地所节约土地面积是否能够满足城镇建设用地需求量进行的分析。通过对玛纳斯县城农村居民点整理潜力分析和城镇建设用地需求量分析,表明整理潜力对城镇建设用地需求量的供给程度较高,具备实施增减挂钩的基本条件。     

广西农村居民点整理的现实潜力测算研究

以广西壮族自治区为例,划分山区、丘陵、平原三类地形分别测算农村居民点整理资金修正系数与农户搬迁意愿的修正系数,并将人均建设用地指标法测算的理论潜力修正为现实潜力。结果显示：广西农村居民点整理现实潜力仅为理论潜力的57.07%,其中山地地区潜力不能释放,而平原地区是潜力释放主要区域。结果表明了资金与农户整理意愿对潜力释放具有显著影响,广西农村居民点整理应根据现实潜力大小安排重点区域,以便取得较高整理效率。     

农村居民点整理的现实潜力测算——以湖南望城为例

在分析该区农村居民点用地现状以及土地功能分区的基础上,利用人均建设用地测算方法和层次分析法,测算该区的农村居民点整理潜力,结果表明,望城区各乡镇综合修正系数介于0.2～0.5之间;2020年农村居民点整理的现实潜力为2 749.81 hm2。应根据各区域现实潜力大小来安排农村居民点整理,以便提高整理效率。     

农村居民点用地现状分析

农村居民点整理是我国农村土地整理的主要内容之一。它不仅是盘活农村存量建设用地、缓解建设用地供需矛盾的主要途径;而其也是促进农村居民点合理布局。改善农民生产生活条件,推进城乡统筹和社会主义新农村建没的主要举措。     

天津市、成都市城乡建设用地增减挂钩模式的启示

2005年以来,天津市、四川省作为国土资源部第一批开展城乡建设用地增减挂钩工作的省（市）,积极探索统筹城乡发展,促进新农村建设路子,取得了一定经验,形成独特的运作模式。本文通过对两种模式运行机制、特点的分析,研究其对福建省城乡建设用地增减挂钩工作中,土地整治方案编制、项目建设资金筹措、集体土地产权调整与登记、宅基地复垦、农民权益保护等方面值得借鉴的启示和经验,提出进一步做好城乡建设用地增减挂钩工作的建议。     

内蒙古自治区农村居民点用地整理潜力研究

通过文献资料法、定性分析和定量计算相结合的方法,以旗县为单位,在对内蒙古自治区农村居民点用地整理潜力调查的基础上,采用人均用地指标法,对农村居民点用地整理潜力进行测算,并运用聚类分析法对整理潜力进行了类型划分和效益评价分类,针对不同的类区,结合当地实际情况提出了相应的整理建议。     

城乡建设用地增减挂钩——新农村建设的新探索

社会主义新农村建设赋予了国土资源管理工作新的内涵,也拓展了土地整理工作的思路。焦作市近年来立足当地的农村宅基地现状,以城乡建设用地增减挂钩为目标,从服务农业、服务农村、服务农民入手,积极开展农村宅基地整理工作,大大缓解了当地建设用地供需矛盾,有力地支持了当地的新农村建设。     

仙女山镇和鸭江镇城镇建设用地增减挂钩项目研究

城乡建设用地增减挂钩项目是统筹城乡发展、建设社会主义新农村的重要抓手,也是解决当前保护资源与保障发展两难命题的重要出路。通过分析重庆市武隆县人民政府拟定的仙女山镇城镇建设用地增加和鸭江镇青峰村等4个村农村建设用地想减少试点项目区的合法性、合理性和必要性,得出了该试点项目区可行性极高的结论,为相关部门决策提供一定的参考依据。     

城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策的观察与思考

随着我国经济发展和城市化步伐加速,城市建设用地供需矛盾日益突出,而与此同时,我国农村土地利用却存在着闲置浪费的现象。城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策是在统筹城乡发展的背景下提出的,旨在促进城市发展的同时实现现实耕地总量的动态平衡,以有效缓解城市建设用地供需矛盾。但在实践中,增减挂钩政策的推进并不顺利,在实施过程中出现了一些问题,偏离了该政策提出的初衷。因此,必须对这些问题追根溯源,探求解决之道,以推动增减挂钩政策的顺利实施。     

中国山区城乡建设用地增减挂钩项目合理性辨析

基于对59个山区城乡建设用地增减挂钩项目的实证研究,从生态效益、耕地占补平衡、农户利用耕地等角度对当前中国盛行的城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策在山区实施的合理性进行了辨析,并分析了其给山区农村、农民带来的影响。研究结果显示:现行城乡建设用地增减挂钩项目导致了山区生态用地的损失,在耕地占补平衡、农民利用耕地等方面也存在着占优补差、增大耕作半径等诸多弊端与不合理性。最后根据研究结果提出山区城乡建设用地增减挂钩的相关政策启示与建议。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.