区域旅游景点空间分布格局及可达性评价——以皖南国际文化旅游示范区为例

综合运用GIS空间分析方法对皖南国际文化旅游示范区内不同类别A级旅游景点的空间结构和可达性进行综合评价,并探究其空间分异规律。结果表明:(1)不同类别旅游景点均呈集聚型分布状态,人文景点集聚程度高于自然景点,且不同类型景点系统分形特征明显,存在局部围绕城市和交通线分布的情况,表现为"大集聚、小分散"的核心边缘分布格局。(2)示范区旅游景点的空间可达性整体较优,平均可达时间为22.55 min,但区域内可达性分布差异显著,呈现明显的交通指向性特征,自然景点的可达性要优于人文景点的可达性。(3)不同类别景点基于县域单元的整体可达性空间上呈集聚格局,可达性的热点区共同表现为以铜陵市、铜陵县、南陵县、繁昌县和青阳县为核心的圈层结构,冷点区域主要呈连续带状分布在示范区的西南部地区。(4)影响可达性的因素主要有旅游景点空间分布、交通路网结构的区域差异以及自然和人文环境。     

基于公路交通网的武陵山片区旅游景点可达性格局分析

利用GIS空间分析技术和可达性模型,以武陵山片区为案例区,基于公路交通网络对武陵山片区旅游景点可达性水平和空间格局进行分析。分析得出,区域内景点分布较为分散,空间上"南少北多";高等级公路呈"王"字形分布,公路密度较低。区域内景点平均通行时间处在3.863—8.401h之间,均值为5.386h。景点可达性系数极差为0.845,高于平均值的景点有16个,占34%,景点可达性不均衡分布较显著。可达性空间格局大致呈"核心—外围"的圈层分布,景点自身空间区位、周边景点密度和高等级公路分布对景点可达性格局有重要影响。最后,提出区域旅游空间结构优化的相关策略。     

基于空间句法的武汉市旅游景点可达性评价

针对武汉市旅游交通"进得来,散不开"的问题,以图论思想为指导,综合运用空间句法、核密度分析法、缓冲区分析法,分别从全局可达性、局部可达性和感知可达性三个视角对武汉市主城区内旅游景点的客观层面可达性和主观层面可达性进行了定量评价。结果表明:第一,研究区内旅游景点的全局可达性和局部可达性总体表现较好或很好,而感知可达性则较弱,不利于游客通过局部空间的路网结构来感知整个路网;第二,旅游景点的空间分布与研究区道路的全局可达性、局部可达性都存在部分空间"错位"现象,即全局、局部可达性最好的区域没有旅游景点分布,而全局和局部可达性较差的东南部却有较多旅游景点集中分布;第三,从不同类型旅游景点的可达性来看,都表现为历史遗产类旅游景点的可达性较好,自然景观类旅游景点可达性较差,现代人文类旅游景点可达性居中;第四,从不同等级旅游景点的可达性来看,表现为等级越高的旅游景点其可达性反而越差的现象。在此基础上,针对可达性较差的武汉东湖风景区提出交通优化建议,以期促进武汉市旅游景点可达性整体水平的提高。     

长江经济带旅游金融效率时空格局特征及空间效应

文章以长江经济带130个空间单元为研究对象,借助随机前沿模型、探索性空间数据分析及空间面板杜宾模型等方法,探究了2000—2015年长江经济带旅游金融效率时空格局特征,并在空间关联检验基础上分析了旅游金融效率的空间效应。结果表明:①时间序列上,长江经济带旅游金融效率核密度曲线均为单峰分布形式,呈"N"字型波动特征,旅游金融效率随时间推进而不断提升;空间格局上,区域中心城市的旅游金融效率多为高层级,中心城市邻近地区因受到核心城市涓滴效应而处于较高层级,圈层状结构明显。②旅游金融效率值存在明显空间依赖性,且其集聚程度整体上随时间推进不断增强,具有明显的空间指向性特征。③经济发展、交通可达性和产业结构对本地旅游金融效率提升具有显著正向效应;而信息化水平对邻近区域旅游金融效率提升的"溢出红利"效应显著,交通可达性对邻近地区旅游要素的"虹吸"大于"溢出",呈现负向外部经济性。     

承接长三角产业转移背景下的皖江示范区通达性分析

以皖江示范区承接长三角产业转移为背景,立足于示范区的物流和客流两个层面,运用CIS栅格分析和网络分析以及ESDA分析技术从时间指标和费用指标,研究了示范区物流可进出性和区内客流的顺畅性.结果表明:由长三角12门户城镇进入示范区的可进入性大体上是以空间距离为基础,局部上由于路网的作用两者共同形成了可进人性的四大城市区;四大城市区以东北-西南向布局平行于进入皖江城市带的长三角12城镇,其局部轮廓有着明显的高等级公路指向性;客流顺畅性上,时间和费用可达性空间格局两者有很大的相似,都是以"双核-隔离岛"形成的圈层结构,时间可达性上呈现高速公路指向性,而费用可达性上呈现铁路指向性;区内城镇间存在较强的空间正相关,局部区域分异明显.     

边疆山地城市群交通网络的时空演化——以滇中城市群为例

以滇中城市群为实证,分析了1990年代以来交通网络规模与交通等级、交通网络结构形态演化特征,选择1996、2007、2013年三个时间节点,将滇中城市群交通网络发展分三个发展阶段,并探讨滇中城市群交通网络可达性演化特征。结果表明:1滇中城市群交通网络空间结构形态经历了"点—线结构"、"放射状结构"、"网络化结构"三个阶段,并呈现一体化结构演化的发展态势;21996—2013年间,可达性总体空间格局变动较小,呈现出以昆明主城区为中心向外围区域递减的圈层空间格局,可达性变化与高等级路网格局密切相关;3中心城镇的可达性水平均有大幅度的提升,各节点间可达性水平差异不断缩小,且呈收敛趋势;4第二阶段(2007—2013年)可达性水平改善程度高于第一阶段(1996—2007年),且城市群边缘中心节点可达性水平提升较大。     

城市旅游景点可达性综合评价模型构建及应用——以武汉市主城区为例

在明确旅游景点可达性概念的基础上,借鉴交通工程学的研究内容,围绕"路、车、人、环境"要素,构建了由静态的"路网可达性"、动态的"车行可达性"和基于人与环境互动的"感知可达性"三个维度组成的城市旅游景点可达性综合评价模型,以此为指导,运用网络分析法、空间句法等方法,综合评价了武汉市A级旅游景点的可达性。结果表明:综合评价模型中实时交通路况的权重最大,表明道路拥堵是制约景点可达性的最重要因素;武汉市只有晴川阁、东湖听涛景区等少数景点可达性的各个方面都表现较好;其他景点或多或少都存在一些问题,主要表现为有路好找但少车、有路但少车难找、有车但少路难找;针对这些问题,提出了针对性较强的对策建议。     

东北地区旅游资源赋存演化特征与旅游业空间重构

基于东北地区2002、2007、2013年A级旅游景区数据,采用多样化指数、等级结构金字塔、品质度、最邻近点指数、点密度分析、不平衡指数等数理与空间分析方法,探讨了东北地区旅游资源赋存的时空演化状况,研究发现:1从数理演化特征来看,东北地区旅游资源类型丰度缓慢提升,同时省际差异较为显著;旅游资源等级体系呈"中间等级数量丰富,低、高端景区缺乏"的纺锤形结构,且伴随旅游景区数量及属性结构比例变化,纺锤形结构呈现"结构破缺—平衡稳定—重心偏离"的演变特征;旅游资源品质度整体呈上升趋势,但增长速率省际分异明显。2从空间演化特征来看,东北地区旅游资源空间分布具有凝聚型特征,景区省际空间分布演变对东北全局没有必然影响;2002年以来旅游资源集聚热点不断增多,景区分布盲区不断消亡,集聚格局由单核空间扩张向跨行政区重组联动发展;旅游资源分布不平衡指数呈下降趋势,景区空间集聚态势逐步弱化,扩散化倾向不断加强。在上述研究结果的基础上,从旅游产业轴带、旅游产业圈层、旅游产业组团三种模式出发,提出了东北地区旅游产业空间的重构构想。     

江西省城市旅游形象的网络化呈现

基于互联网旅游大数据,以江西省11个地级市为研究对象,构建以互联网上目的地旅游知名度和旅游美誉度为基础指标的网络旅游形象矩阵,分析江西省各市网络旅游形象的感知与分异特征;在此基础上,结合旅游者网络评价的话语分析,采用语义网络分析和主题分析方法探讨网络虚拟社区中旅游者对江西省各市代表性景区的负面评价及影响因素。结果表明,江西各市网络旅游形象感知总体表现为知名度偏低但美誉度较突出的特征,各市间的网络旅游形象有较大差异;江西各市代表性景区负面评价语义网络呈现核心圈层、次核心圈层和外围圈层的核心—边缘意象结构;景点与景色、管理与服务、收费与消费是影响江西城市网络旅游形象的主要因素,并可进一步凝练成"性价比"这一综合问题。文章最后从宣传、整饰、提升三个层面提出加强江西城市网络旅游形象建设的建议。     

高速铁路对区域内部旅游可达性影响——以皖南国际文化旅游示范区为例

以皖南国际文化旅游示范区为例,利用Arc GIS中网络分析与成本加权栅格集成法生成高铁影响下的区域内部等时圈图,从旅游目的地和客源地两个研究视角,探讨高铁对区域内部旅游可达性及区域旅游联系的影响。结果显示:1高铁使得旅游目的地和客源地等时圈沿高铁线路呈轴突扩张态势,1h等时圈由开通前的"时圈岛"变化为开通后的"时圈廊",在示范区内沿高铁线路呈"卅"字分布,高铁对旅游圈空间扩张具有显著推动作用。2高铁网络的建设完善将产生时空压缩效应,扩大"2h旅游圈"辐射范围,九华山风景区和铜陵市在2h内可达景区数量最多。3高铁对旅游目的地和客源地的对外旅游联系总量产生显著的带动作用,提高核心景区和城市的对外旅游联系总量,但提升幅度具有显著差异。高铁的建成会改变区域内旅游空间结构和既有的旅游竞合模式,促进形成高铁沿线旅游经济带,实现旅游地系统优化升级,对区域旅游一体化建设形成重要支撑。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.