金融政策与经济低碳转型——基于增长视角的研究

在“碳中和”目标背景下,本文基于经济“增长”视角,从理论上分析金融政策在经济低碳转型中能够发挥的作用。我们构建了一个包含清洁(绿色)与非清洁(非绿色)生产部门、定向技术进步、金融约束与金融政策的内生增长模型。通过基于模型的理论证明与数值模拟,我们发现:(1)清洁部门相对非清洁部门更强的金融约束会推迟经济低碳转型过程、导致环境恶化,绿色金融政策能够缓解清洁部门的金融约束。(2)绿色金融政策能够增加清洁部门的产量,在一定条件下,还能促进经济实现低碳转型并阻止环境恶化。(3)通过金融政策推动经济低碳转型,相比部分财政政策具有成本效益优势;两类政策存在组合搭配的空间。(4)在疫情冲击后加大绿色金融政策力度,将有益于实现“绿色复苏”,并有可能以相对平时更低的成本,加快“碳达峰”与经济低碳转型的进程。     

金融发展、产业升级与跨越中等收入陷阱——基于新结构经济学的视角

本文在引入结构转型的内生增长理论框架下,重点考察了金融发展(包括金融深化和金融结构)对于产业升级促进作用的动态变化。研究发现,给定一国的发展阶段,不仅存在最优技术进步方式和最优产业结构,还存在一个对于金融深化程度的“最低要求”,低于这一临界值的国家将难以实现下一阶段的产业升级。另一方面,产业升级对金融深化程度的要求并非一成不变,而是随着经济发展呈现出先快速上升、在达到中等收入水平后缓慢递减的特征。在资本积累相对有限的约束条件下,中等收入国家要实现经济增长方式从模仿驱动转向创新驱动,需要首先实现金融深化程度的提升,并推动金融结构转型和制度完善,以实现对创新型产业的有效金融支持,否则很可能陷入“模仿陷阱”,长期徘徊在中等收入水平。本文从新结构经济学的视角,为金融发展与经济发展之间关系的动态变化提供了理论基础,并揭示出跨越中等收入陷阱是一个产业升级、金融发展和制度完善“三位一体”的转型过程。     

Recent growth trends in developing countries

The unprecedented economic conditions of the mid-1970s have created problems with economic development for all countries of the world. Recent economic growth trends in the following main groups of developing countries are reviewed: 1) low-income countries; 2) lower middle-income countries; 3) intermediate middle-income countries; 4) upper middle-come countries; and 5) balance of payments deficit oil exporting countries. Economic indicators for each group of countries are tabulated. The tables show that the developing countries have continued domestic economic growth at only moderately slower rates during the years since 1973. They have been helped by foreign aid or private-source borrowing. As a group, they have, in fact, helped to keep the world economy from plunging deeper into recession and to prevent world trade from contracting more than it actually did already in 1974 and 1975. The performance of these developing economies during these difficult years contributes to continued optimism regarding their future prospects.     

GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: Trends, Causes, and Consequences

Throughout the twentieth century governments have been spendingever larger proportions of national income. Three issues arisein discussions about the growth of such spending as it pertainsto developing countries: How does it compare with expenditurein industrial nations? What explains the growth in spendingby developing country governments? And what are the effectson economic growth? Government expenditure as a share of GDPin low- and middle-income countries, on average, is lower thancomparable shares in industrial market economies and, with fewexceptions, is growing. Many factors, including ideology, demographics,a positive income elasticity for public goods, the rising costof public goods relative to private goods, and perhaps developmenttheory and practice, explain this growth. As for the relationshipbetween government expenditure and economic growth, the empiricalevidence does not reveal any strong correlation. The size ofgovernment may engender strong ideological debate, but the positionthat the aggregate level of government expenditure is a significantdeterminant of growth rates receives little support.      

Do Stock Index Futures Affect Economic Growth? Evidence from 32 Countries

This article investigates the relationship between stock index futures markets development and economic growth using time-series methods for 32 developed and developing countries. Evidence of cointegration between stock index futures and real economy in 29 countries suggests the presence of co-movements among the variables, indicating long-run stationarity in those countries. Our findings show that there is Granger-causality from stock index futures markets development to economic growth for middle-income countries with relatively low real per capita GDP, and Granger-causality in the reverse direction for the countries with high real per capita GDP. Variance decomposition and impulse-response function (IRF) analyses results support the existence of a relationship between stock index futures and real economy.     

Financial Cooperative Potential Between China and Belt and Road Countries

ABSTRACT

Along with the increasingly frequent economic exchanges between China and the Belt and Road countries (BRCs), bilateral and multilateral financial integration within the region has become a current trend. This article quantifies the level of cooperative potential by designing an index based on the investment demand in China and the financing needs of the BRCs. Using this index, this article analyzes the distribution of the financial cooperative potential among the BRCs and uncovers its influencing factors. The statistical findings are that countries with higher financial cooperative potential have closer economic ties with China. These countries are mostly low-income or middle-income countries with a shortage of infrastructure investment, while their economic development is stable. The research results provide guidance for the overseas strategic layout of the Chinese financial institutions. More funds should be injected into China’s trade and investment counterparts that have stable economic growth and a strong demand for infrastructure investment, such as countries in Northeast, Central, and Southeast Asia.     

Population growth. Its magnitude and implications for development

A summary of the 1984 World Development Report is provided. The 3 major points stressed in the report were: 1) rapid population growth adversely affects development, 2) governments must adopt policies to reduce fertility, and 3) policies adopted by many countries have effectively reduced fertility. World population growth began accelerating at 0.5%/year in the 18th century, and by 1950 the annual acceleration rate was 2%. Most of the increase in population size is occurring in less developed countries, and this increase is due in part to the recent decline in mortality experienced by these countries. Of the 80 million individuals who will be added to the world's population in 1984, 70 million will be in the developing countries. Since 1965 the population growth rate for developing countries as a group declined from 2.4% to 2%. However, because of the high proportion of younger aged individuals in developing countries, the decline in fertility is expected to level off. According to World Bank population projections, the world population will stabilize at around 11 billion in 2150. During the interium, the population of developing countries will increase from its present level of 3.6 billion to 8.4 billion, and the population of developed countries will increase from 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion. These projections are probably overly optimistic. The adverse impact on development of rapid population growth is due to several factors. 1st, resources which could be used for investment must instead be used to fulfill the consumption needs of an increased number of people. 2nd, increases in the labor force must be absorbed by the agricultural sector, and this reduces agricultural productivity. 3rd, rapid population growth increases management problems. The adaption of policies by governments to reduce fertility is a necessary step in halting population growth. For poor families, children provide economic security. Therefore, governments must act to improve the economic conditions for poor families if they hope to reduce population growth. Education and job opportunities must be expanded and social security provided for the elderly. In the past it was assumed that fertility would only decline when urbanization, industrialization, and income reached a certain level. It is now known that appropriate policies can effectively reduce fertility even in the absence of economic advancement. Fertility declines are more closely related to increases in literacy and life expectancy than to increases in the gross national product. Family planning programs in China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Korea, Sri Lanka, and Tunisia have reduced fertility far below the level normally associated with the income levels prevailing in those countries.     

金融开放视角下宏观经济波动问题研究——以东亚国家(地区)为例

20世纪80年代以来,东亚地区金融市场的开放推动了资本在国际间的大规模流动,大量的国际资本在促进东亚经济增长的同时,也埋下了经济波动的隐患。结合东亚经济体的实际特点,本文采用Aghion等(2004)提出的动态开放经济模型来分析金融开放对东亚不同类型国家(地区)经济波动的影响,并利用东亚国家(地区)的面板数据对模型的结论进行实证检验。研究发现,由于国内金融体系发展程度的差异,金融开放对于东亚不同类型经济体产生的影响不同,金融开放缓解了东亚发达经济体的经济波动,但加剧了发展中国家的经济波动。随着金融开放程度的不断提高,东亚的发展中国家要加快推进国内的金融体系建设,以降低国际资本流动对宏观经济稳定的冲击。     

Who benefits from financial liberalization? Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies

In recent decades most countries have implemented significant reforms to foster financial liberalization. This article examines to what extent these reforms have benefited advanced economies and emerging market economies. We focus on four groups of countries: the G-7, other European countries, Latin America and East Asia over the period 1973–2006. We find evidence supporting the hypothesis that the different forms of financial liberalization affected growth differently in the four groups of countries. The main finding is that the benefits of financial liberalization are more important for advanced economies. In contrast, financial liberalization in emerging market economies has a weak positive impact on growth when its scope is limited, whereas full liberalization has been associated with slower economic growth.     

Circumstance and Choice: The Role of Initial Conditions and Policies in Transition Economies

This article takes an integrated approach to evaluating theinteraction of initial conditions, political change, reformsand economic performance in a unified framework covering 28transition economies in East Asia, Central and Eastern Europe,and the fsu. Initial conditions and economic policy jointlydetermine the large differences in economic performance amongtransition economies. Initial conditions dominate in explaininginflation, but economic liberalization is the most importantfactor determining differences in growth. Political reform emergesas the most important determinant of the speed and comprehensivenessof economic liberalization, raising the important question ofwhat determines political liberalization. Results suggest theimportance of the level of development in determining the decisionto expand political freedoms.     

Regulatory Impact Assessment in Developing and Transition Economies: A Survey of Current Practice

Regulatory impact assessment (RIA) involves a systematic appraisal of the costs and benefits associated with a proposed new regulation and evaluation of the performance of existing regulations. So far, most academic research has been concerned with the adoption of RIA in OECD countries. This article assesses the contribution that RIA can make to 'better regulation' in developing and transition economies. The results reported in this article suggest that a growing number of low and middle-income countries are beginning to apply some form of regulatory assessment, but that the methods adopted are partial in their application and are not systematically applied across government. The authors discuss the implications of their findings for capacity building and future research.     

Institutional quality,investment efficiency,and the choice of public–private partnerships

We examine a sample of 625 public–private partnership (PPP) firms from 1980 to 2015 that straddle nine countries with varying degrees of economic development and PPP markets. We find that the motivations of the firms that undertake PPP investments vary. While private sector firms in economies with low institutional quality choose to engage in PPPs to alleviate capital constraints attributed to underinvestment, those in economies with high institutional quality participate in PPPs to solve the problem of overinvestment due to an abundant cash flow. In the long run, the benefits of lower capital constraints through PPP investments are more pronounced in economies with high institutional quality.     

Regulatory Impact Assessment in Developing and Transition Economies: A Survey of Current Practice

Regulatory impact assessment (RIA) involves a systematic appraisal of the costs and benefits associated with a proposed new regulation and evaluation of the performance of existing regulations. So far, most academic research has been concerned with the adoption of RIA in OECD countries. This article assesses the contribution that RIA can make to ‘better regulation’ in developing and transition economies. The results reported in this article suggest that a growing number of low and middle-income countries are beginning to apply some form of regulatory assessment, but that the methods adopted are partial in their application and are not systematically applied across government. The authors discuss the implications of their findings for capacity building and future research.     

发达经济体愿景下开发性普惠金融的战略思考

为了跨越"中等收入陷阱",应将普惠金融与经济转型升级有机结合起来.由于普及性普惠金融局限性明显,所以,为了实现进入发达经济体的目标,有必要大力发展开发性普惠金融.与普及性普惠金融的"供血功能"不同,开发性普惠金融是一种"造血式"融资并提供相关金融服务,着眼于社会不同层级经济主体之间的生产分工合作,能提高劳动生产率并共享经济增长的成果.基于发达经济体愿景,提出了发展开发性普惠金融的基本框架,旨在促使整个产业链的价值提升,调整社会收入分配结构.     

发达国家和发展中国家财政政策顺周期问题的研究与借鉴

国外关于发达国家和发展中国家财政政策顺周期问题的研究结果表明:(一)发达国家财政政策具有温和的逆周期性,即在经济上升期增加收入、减少支出、在经济下滑期减少收入、增加支出;也有一些研究成果认为发达国家的财政收入、财政支出具有顺周期性。(二)发展中国家财政收入、财政支出等政策变量,在经济上升期,具有快速增长的顺周期性;在经济下滑期,具有快速减少的顺周期性。     

Investing for the old age: pensions, children and savings

In the last century, most countries have experienced both an increase in pension spending and a decline in fertility. We argue that the interplay of pension generosity and development of capital markets is crucial to understand fertility decisions. Since children have traditionally represented for parents a form of retirement saving, particularly in economies with limited or nonexistent capital markets, an exogenous increase of pension spending provides a saving technology alternative to children, thus relaxing financial (saving) constraints and reducing fertility. We build a simple two-period OLG model to show that an increase in pensions is associated with a larger decrease in fertility in countries in which individuals have less access to financial markets. Cross-country regression analysis supports our result: an interaction between various measures of pension generosity and a proxy for the development of financial markets consistently enters the regressions positively and significantly, suggesting that in economies with limited financial markets, children represent a (if not the only) way for parents to save for old age, and that increases in pensions amount effectively to relaxing these constraints.     

Sovereign risk spillovers: A network approach

Understanding the global financial network for sovereign debt, particularly with a focus on interaction and spillover effects of sovereign risk, has become important for policy makers as they look to protect the stability of their economies. Using high dimensional Vector Autoregression techniques and network simulation on Sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS)’ data of 57 countries, we identify that the global sovereign CDS network is fully integrated as there is virtually no country without any connection to at least one specific node in the system. However, each country has a unique attribute in the network, as a risk exporter or importer and/or risk transmitter. Among developed countries, the US (unsurprisingly) holds the dominant position as a risk exporter while Germany is identified as a connecting country that transmits shocks. The most connected countries in the sovereign CDS network belong to the new European Union members. We examine possible drivers of the network relationships observed, in order to better understand the risk transmission process, and find that connections in the sovereign risk network are stronger within regional groups and countries with the same level of economic development. Central and Eastern Europe and Middle East and Africa have more interactive networks than Northern Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America. We also identify that financial volatility and economic policy uncertainty increase the interactions in market-based default risk assessment.     

What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space,CDS spreads and market pricing of risk

We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for fifty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other economic fundamentals over 2005–10. We focus in particular on five countries in the South-West Eurozone Periphery, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Dynamic panel estimates show that fiscal space and other macroeconomic factors are statistically and economically important determinants of sovereign risk. However, risk-pricing of the Eurozone Periphery countries is not predicted accurately either in-sample or out-of-sample: unpredicted high spreads are evident during global crisis period, especially in 2010 when the sovereign debt crisis swept over the periphery area. We match the periphery group with five middle income countries outside Europe that were closest in terms of fiscal space during the European fiscal crisis. Eurozone Periphery default risk is priced much higher than the matched countries in 2010, even allowing for differences in fundamentals. One interpretation is that these economies switched to a “pessimistic” self-fulfilling expectational equilibrium. An alternative interpretation is that the market prices not on current but future fundamentals, expecting adjustment challenges in the Eurozone periphery to be more difficult for than the matched group of middle-income countries because of exchange rate and monetary constraints.     

Does the worldwide shift of FDI from manufacturing to services accelerate economic growth? A GMM estimation study

We examine the effect of manufacturing and service FDI (foreign direct investment) on their own sector growth, the spillover to the other sectors and the overall economy in host countries. We identify significant sectoral and inter-industry spillover effects with various data classifications and types of FDI flows. Evidence reveals that growth effect of manufacturing FDI operates by stimulating activity in its own (manufacturing) sector and is prevalent in Latin America-Caribbean, in Europe-Central Asia, middle to low-income countries and economies with large industry share. A surge of service FDI is likely to spur growth in service industries but hurt activity in manufacturing industries. Financial service FDI enhances growth in South-East Asia and the Pacific, high income countries and service-based economies by stimulating activity in both manufacturing and service sectors. However, nonfinancial service FDI drains resources and hurts manufacturing industry in the same group of countries. We conclude that a shift from manufacturing to service FDI is likely to lead to deindustrialization in certain regions and types of economies if this shift is spearheaded by nonfinancial FDI.     

Foreign bank penetration and the lending channel in emerging economies: Evidence from bank-level panel data

This paper examines the main implications of recently increasing foreign bank penetration on bank lending as a channel of monetary policy transmission in emerging economies. Using a dynamic panel model of loan growth, we investigate the loan granting behavior of 1273 banks in the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe during the period from 1996 to 2003. Applying the pooled OLS, system GMM, and panel VAR estimators, we find consistent evidence that foreign banks are less responsive to monetary shocks in host countries, as they adjust their outstanding loan portfolios and interest rates to a lesser extent than domestic private banks, independent of their liquidity, capitalization, size, efficiency, and credit risk, and although there exists a bank lending channel in the emerging economies, it is declining in strength due to the increased level of foreign bank penetration. We also explore possible driving factors for the different responses of foreign and domestic banks to monetary policy shocks by investigating foreign banks’ different behavior during banking crises and tranquil periods, the effects of mode of entry to host countries, the home-country effects, and the response of foreign banks from OECD countries vs. all foreign countries including non-OECD countries. We suggest the access of foreign banks to funding from parent banks through internal capital markets as the most convincing explanation.