Situating the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in the context of global economic governance

The creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)was welcomed by the World Bank but opposed by the Obamaadministration. The paper explains China’s positive relationshipwith the Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment (OECD) in terms of the mission of the Bank, sharedby the OECD, to develop and deepen the global economy. The AIIBand the related Belt and Road initiative promise to do this throughinvestment in infrastructure and connectivity in and around thepoorly integrated Eurasian landmass. But while the current Chineseleadership has supported an inclusive global economy based uponfree trade and supported by multilateral institutions, China’s controlof resources outside the multilateral framework and adherence topractices that challenge liberal principles prompt suspicions thatthese commitments are either disingenuous or anyway subjectto reversal. In itself, therefore, the AIIB provides no conclusiveevidence either way on China’s future course.     

Managing leverage of infrastructure projects: Aggregate and sectoral risk effect

Funding for infrastructure projects recently shows that debt has a portion more than equity, triggering public debates. Therefore, leverage as an instrument to measure the ability and willingness of project sponsors to fund becomes the utmost importance to discuss. Relating to leverage, risk and government participation are two main factors that can explain the choice of funding decisions by the project sponsors. For this reason, this study would analyze the effect of risk and government participation on leverage through the two main sectors of infrastructure projects, namely the transportation sector and the energy sector, and derivating risk to political risk and financial risk. The objects of research were 976 infrastructure projects listed in the Asian Development Bank during 2007−2016. We use censored regression to examine the model by infrastructure sectors, both as individual and through interaction effects. The analysis showed that overall, leverage of infrastructure projects was rather influenced by financial risk than by political risk. However, the leverage of infrastructure projects in the transportation sector was more vulnerable to risk than that in other sectors.     

Can integrated infrastructure investment plans contribute to more effective public spending? The case of Mozambique

All countries, especially developing countries with limited financial resources, face difficult decisions in prioritising public funds for investment projects in the face of multiple demands in order to achieve strategic public goals. Effective investment often requires coordination between different institutions and the management of political pressure to divert investment in support of private interests. It also requires the identification of appropriate sources of funds for different purposes. The preparation of an integrated infrastructure investment plan (IIIP) that uses structured approaches to review investment proposals has been suggested, and adopted in some cases, as an instrument to address these challenges and bridge the gap between national planning and sectoral budgeting. This article considers the experience of Mozambique in deploying an IIIP as well as some recent events and concludes that the instrument may be helpful as part of a system of investment planning and allocation but that it has significant limitations.     

Impact of modern communication infrastructure on productivity,production structure and factor demands of US industries: Impact revisited

This study investigates the contribution of modern communication infrastructure characterized by high speed broadband access network on the productivity growth, production structure and factor demands for US industries and for the aggregate economy. To evaluate such contribution, we modify the traditional cost function by incorporating communication infrastructure as input in production process in conjunction with other public infrastructures. The network externality and spillover effect of broadband access technology are captured by introducing broadband penetration rate as a shift factor in industry level production function. Empirical results show that the increased use of modern communications infrastructure increases the productivity of all industries with wide variations across industries. Estimated impacts on input demands show that increase in use of communications infrastructure service saves labor and materials and increase the demand for private capital. Finally, aggregate social rate of return on such investment has been estimated for policy implications.     

Parties,divided government,and infrastructure expenditures: Evidence from U.S. states

This paper examines the impact of parties and divided government on infrastructure expenditures for transportation, education, and social services in U.S. states. As infrastructure expenditures are considered a bi-partisan priority, we hypothesize that divided governments expand infrastructure spending compared to governments under true Democratic or Republican control. We test this hypothesis using U.S. state-level data over the period 1970 to 2008 and find that divided governments indeed increase expenditures for these budget categories. Specifically, divided governments spend more on transportation than unified Democratic governments, and more on education and social services than unified Republican governments. The effect is most pronounced for the core infrastructure of transportation and even stronger when only looking at capital outlays instead of total expenditures.     

Expanding airport capacity of cities under uncertainty: Strategies to mitigate congestion

Airport capacity constraints are increasingly challenging the growth of air traffic. At the same time, decision-making about airport capacity investments is extremely complex, involving trade-offs. This paper’s objective is to optimise a privately owned airport system’s capacity investment decision in a city under demand uncertainty. Next to the investment size, our real options model incorporates the timing of the investment, as well as the cost of congestion. The results reveal that the larger a city’s initial airport capacity, the smaller its investment will relatively be and the lower the occupancy rate threshold at which investment will take place. We also show that, in case of a higher demand growth combined with more demand uncertainty, the city will benefit from a significantly larger investment, but made later at a higher occupancy rate. In this case, cities with a small initial capacity will sometimes even more than double current capacity. Higher airport charges and an increase in non-aeronautical revenues both lead to a later investment in more capacity, due to the increased project attractiveness. An increase in congestion costs results in a larger investment made earlier, in order to eliminate delays. Airport operational cost and capacity holding cost increases both lead to smaller investments.     

铁路的长期经济影响:基于中国1980年铁路线的研究

铁路与经济发展之间的关系得到了大量的研究，但均集中于短期经济影响，且很少关注铁路在发展中国家从传统农业社会向工业社会转型过程中的作用。文章使用中国1980年的铁路线研究了铁路在中国转型期对县域经济发展的长期影响。研究发现，铁路开通对县域经济发展具有显著的长期促进作用，具体来说，以2000年数据为例，1980年铁路线对以GDP为衡量指标的经济发展的年均促进作用为1.16%。排除了无法观测因素和溢出效应、控制县级异质性、以及使用"三线建设"作为外生冲击的结果均支持上述结论。机制检验发现，铁路促进了县域层面的工业化，同时还显著增加了县域层面的外商投资和出口，进而促进了经济发展。本文的研究不仅提供了铁路的长期经济影响的经验证据，同时也揭示了以铁路为代表的基础设施对经济转型的作用，从而有助于理解中国经济增长奇迹，也为其他发展中国家转型提供了借鉴。     

英国铁路经营管理状况探析

铁路是国民经济大动脉,在我国综合交通运输体系中居于骨干地位。"十四五"时期,为继续深化我国铁路市场化改革,在交通强国建设中当好先行,推动新时代铁路高质量发展,有必要对国外铁路市场化改革和经营管理状况进行研究和探讨。通过分析英国铁路市场化改革后的行业结构、主要资金来源和经营状况,阐述路网公司、客运公司、货运公司等不同类型铁路企业的经营状况,总结得出重视铁路基础设施的投资、补贴不同类型的铁路企业、制定鼓励铁路运输的政策法规和平衡路网企业与运输企业利益等启示,为我国铁路市场化改革提供有益借鉴。     

我国金融市场基础设施管理:现状、难点和立法路径

随着我国金融市场的纵深化发展,金融市场基础设施因其基础服务、系统性风险管理、辅助监管以及助力金融市场开放和营商环境完善等作用而日益受到重视,并成为现代金融治理和推动金融现代化的重要内容。但我国金融市场基础设施在运行和管理过程中却存在监管分散、制度空白、支持宏观审慎监管不力等情况,各方在相关概念和标准、统筹监管、恢复与处置安排等方面难以形成法律共识。为更好发挥金融市场基础设施作用,完善制度环境,我国应从金融市场基础设施的相关概念入手,明确其稳健运行所需的保障手段,完善统筹监管框架,有效衔接其他相关法律,并通过分步走的方式填补制度空白,提高立法层级。     

Multi-sectoral interdependencies of regional public infrastructure investments

Public investment decision-making processes involve multiple and interrelated sectoral and regional policy objectives and budget constraints. This paper presents a dynamic spatio-economic model that considers multi-sectoral investment interdependencies using data at the prefecture level in Greece. The expenditure allocation dynamics of most types of regional public investment are found to be competitive with each other. This outcome is attributed to the lack of policy coordination, technological and budget constraints, geographical factors, and equity and political considerations. The investment interrelationships may have a significant effect on future state funding needs and the strategic assessment of infrastructure development at the country level.