年报风险披露与权益资本成本

本文从权益资本成本视角探究了中国上市公司年报风险披露的价值相关性及信息性质。基于2007-2014年A股上市公司的研究发现:(1)年报风险披露长度及其变化值越大,公司权益资本成本及其变化值越小,说明披露的风险越多,市场给予的信任越多,因而要求的风险溢价越小,从而支持了风险披露的同质观;(2)风险披露与权益资本成本的负相关关系主要体现在信息环境差、显性风险较小的公司;(3)投资者对增加披露风险信息具有正向市场反应,且投资者异质信念降低,表明风险信息异质性较弱,而信息不对称是风险披露影响权益资本成本的不完全中介;(4)风险披露变化值越大,公司股权再融资的可能性越大、折价率越低,债券利差越小。本文首次检验了我国年报风险披露对权益资本成本的影响,得到与国外文献不一致的结论,丰富了信息披露与资本成本关系相关的文献。     

企业绿色沉默能否对冲碳风险溢价？

本文以2011—2021年中国A股上市的高碳排放企业为样本,构建沉默式披露数据库,考察企业绿色沉默与碳风险溢价之间的关系。主要结论如下：(1)企业绿色沉默能有效对冲自身碳风险溢价,沉默程度越高,越能抑制碳风险溢价;(2)绿色沉默通过降低市场关注压力和提升外部债务融资水平来对冲风险,伴随碳排放水平、市场竞争强度与环境政策变迁压力的不同,沉默的风险对冲效应有所差异;(3)绿色沉默具有行业转嫁效应,会加剧同行业竞争对手的碳风险溢价。这说明,沉默式披露是企业转嫁内部风险来应对外部性压力的自利行为,应当警惕和预防绿色沉默在企业间的蔓延,降低社会系统性碳风险。本文补充和发展了企业绿色沉默与碳风险溢价的相关研究。     

媒体曝光度、信息披露环境与权益资本成本

媒体发挥着公司治理和信息传播的双重作用,这有助于减少投资者与公司间的信息不对称,而信息不对称程度的降低会减少公司的融资成本。本文选取2007年之前上市A股公司为样本,实证检验了媒体曝光度对权益资本成本的影响。研究发现媒体报道有助于降低公司权益资本成本。研究还进一步发现在市场化程度越低的地区,媒体报道对权益资本成本的影响力越强;在非国有企业中,机构投资者持股比例越高,媒体报道对权益资本成本的影响力越强。     

机构投资者持股：并购溢价的推手还是拦路虎？

并购溢价是主并企业对市场行情及目标企业进行严谨判断后的理性选择,高溢价并购逐渐成为上市企业并购重组新常态。本文以2009—2021年中国上市企业为样本,探讨机构投资者持股对企业并购溢价的影响。研究发现,机构投资者持股能显著抑制企业并购溢价。进一步地,机构投资者持股通过抑制管理者过度自信、改善企业资本结构来抑制企业并购溢价。同时,本文还发现机构投资者持股对企业并购溢价的抑制作用在企业产权性质、股权集中度及信息环境方面存在异质性。进一步研究发现,相较于交易型机构投资者,稳定型机构投资者持股比例越高,越能避免高并购溢价。另外,并购溢价对短期并购绩效有促进作用,与长期并购绩效无关。本文从并购视角出发探究了机构投资者持股带来的后果,为企业机构投资者的引入及交易定价的规范提供了支持。     

信息披露、外部监督与资本成本——基于中小企业板的实证分析

本文使用深圳证券交易所中小板上市公司2012-2016年度的样本资料,研究信息披露水平与资本成本的关系,与大部分学者的观点一样,分析表明信息披露水平与资本成本负相关.从外部社会监督的角度来看,新闻媒体的关注、机构投资者、分析师等外部治理因素对公司权益资本成本有重大的制约作用.研究结果表明,分析师、机构投资者以及媒体作为我国资本市场极为重要的社会外部监督力量,能够削弱信息披露水平对企业资本成本的敏感度,也就是说,外部监督力量越强,信息披露水平对权益资本成本的影响越小.     

企业核心竞争力能够降低权益资本成本吗——基于文本分析的经验证据

本文通过文本分析法构建企业核心竞争力的度量指标,实证检验了核心竞争力对企业权益资本成本的影响.研究发现:核心竞争力越强,企业的权益资本成本越低,该结论在一系列稳健性检验下仍然成立.机制检验表明,核心竞争力对企业权益资本成本的影响主要通过降低经营风险、降低信息不对称程度以及缓解代理问题三条路径实现的.进一步研究发现:(1)资源类和能力类核心竞争力均是影响企业权益资本成本的重要因素;(2)机构投资者持股可以强化核心竞争力对权益资本成本的降低作用.本文的研究揭示了核心竞争力在企业融资中的重要作用,不仅丰富了核心竞争力和权益资本成本的相关文献,同时对如何降低企业融资成本具有重要的现实意义.     

企业社会责任信息披露与权益资本成本

运用理论分析和实证检验的方法从权益资本成本的角度研究我国上市公司企业社会责任信息披露的经济动机.研究发现:上市公司上期权益资本成本越高,本期披露社会责任报告的可能性越大,说明降低权益资本成本是上市公司决定是否披露社会责任报告的重要经济动机;对于首次披露企业社会责任报告的公司,上期权益资本成本越高,本期社会责任信息披露质量越高;但对非首次披露企业社会责任报告的公司来说,披露企业社会责任报告的资本成本动机不显著.     

人力资本对股票收益的预测研究

迄今国内研究尚未系统剖析人力资本在资本市场中的价值，本文基于中国A股市场考察人力资本对股票市场的影响。通过回归和投资组合分析证实存在人力资本溢价，即人力资本水平越高的企业股票收益率越高，人力资本是影响股票收益的风险因子。从“风险传播”“价值增长”和“信息传递”三条渠道剖析人力资本溢价内在驱动机制，丰富了人力资本溢价理论解释机制。异质性分析发现：相比于非国有企业，国有企业中人力资本溢价更显著；融资约束和披露职工信息在人力资本溢价中发挥“促进作用”;经济政策不确定性在人力资本溢价中发挥“抑制作用”;劳动力市场规模越大越容易削弱人力资本对股票收益的影响。本文为投资者投资决策提供了新视角，为企业、国家重视人力资本贡献了股票市场诠释。     

我国商业银行债券风险溢价实证研究

本文通过计量分析发现评级机构给予的信用级别与商业银行债券的风险溢价显著相关,且当债券级别越高时,风险溢价越低;当商业银行债券以浮动利率发行时,债券的风险溢价能显著降低。同时,由于存款准备金率的变动影响了债券市场上的资金供需情况,当银行存款准备金率上升时,债券发行方商业银行需要向投资者支付更高的风险溢价。     

上市公司社会责任信息披露与股权资本成本相关性研究

我国大部分上市公司都以权益融资为获取资金的主要渠道,因此企业都希望股权融资成本可以保持在理想的水平上。随着社会环境的变化及市场投资者素质水平的提高教资者对公司信息披露的要求也从仅仅专注于公司的财务信息到更关注公司社会责任（CSR）履行情况的信息。本文以深市和沪市A股上市公司为样本,检验了公司社会责任信息披露质量与公司股权资本成本的相关关系。实证结果表明啦会责任信息披露的水平提高可以促进股权资本成本的降低。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…