科学与技术耦合效果评价——科技互补效应和成本效应分析

考虑到当前创新环境日益复杂化，科学与技术耦合系统已成为一个受系统内外因共同影响而发生演化的开放系统。在为耦合系统构建状态空间模型的基础上，通过求解该模型，刻画科学技术化强度和技术科学化强度，据此分析科学与技术互动产生的互补效应和成本效应，评价29个省份的科学与技术耦合效果，并测度地区科技发展所属耦合路径类型。研究表明，不同省份推进科学技术化进程和技术科学化进程的差异性显著；科学与技术耦合效果最佳并不能说明地区科技发展速度最快；绝大多数省份的科技耦合路径表现为科技中立路径，占比最小的路径为技术强势路径。基于不同省份的耦合情况差异，提出针对性建议。     

基于状态空间模型的政产学研资协同创新四螺旋影响因素实证研究

在三螺旋理论框架下，搭建政府、产业、大学、研究机构和资本部门四螺旋模型，运用文献归纳法选取多元主体协同创新6类影响因素，以主体间协同程度测度结果为因变量基础，利用状态空间模型动态分析这些因素影响方向、大小和趋势。实证结果表明，中国经济因素表现为促进作用持续提升；中国技术市场规模和创新产业规模表现为先抑制后促进，且促进作用不断提升；中国产品市场需求和创新投入表现为抑制作用持续提升；中国创新产出在时间上表现为促进作用先提升后下降并最终稳定的状态。最后，提出不同政策建议，以促进中国政产学研资协同创新体系后续发展。     

税收优惠政策与高技术产业创新效率

研究目标：分析税收优惠政策对创新效率的影响以及创新效率的收敛性，测度税收优惠政策对创新带来的实际贡献。研究方法：构建随机前沿模型测度高技术产业的创新效率，采用σ收敛和β收敛检验方法检验创新效率收敛性，并采用反事实计量方法测度税收优惠政策对创新带来的实际贡献。研究发现：税收优惠政策对研发效率有显著正影响，对市场转化效率的影响为正但不显著，政策实施后效率分布也更集中；研发效率的收敛主要是由东中西地区内部之间差距的缩小造成的，而市场转化效率的收敛是由三大地区内部差距的缩小以及中西部和东部地区的差距缩小共同造成的；税收优惠政策使研发效率大约上升了8%～10%，带来的创新产出占总产出的比重也一直维持在10%以上。研究创新：从效率水平和收敛性两个角度来定量分析税收优惠政策对创新效率的影响。研究价值：为更好地采取措施提高创新效率和减小地区创新效率差距提供经验证据。     

Multi-criteria analysis of economic complexity transition in emerging economies: The case of Paraguay

Like many emerging economies, the productive structure of the Paraguayan economy is not complex. It relies extensively on low value-added activities in the primary sector such as agriculture and cattle ranching. These activities have a lower return in terms of economic and social benefits than other potential productive activities and do not contribute to increasing capability accumulation. In this paper we present a tool to support the identification of strategic sectors and products which if taken advantage of, could leverage development through the accumulation of productive capabilities. Our guiding question is: Which productive sectors should be promoted to foster economic development in Paraguay through a transition towards a more complex economy? To answer this question, we use concepts from the Economic Complexity theory to identify new products and cluster them based on the Product Space methodology for the determination of potential products and combine it with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for multicriteria analysis considering multiple criteria. In doing so, our proposed methodology contributes to both the Economic Complexity and the AHP literature. Through this combination, we tackle the multiplicity of juxtaposed criteria, which should be considered at the prioritization stage in the crafting of economic restructuring measures according to the country's capabilities. Our evaluation showed that the combination of the approaches is useful, and for Paraguay's case, it helped identify sectors, which, if promoted by policymakers, could help boost economic development through complexity and capability accumulation.     

Exploring the male Chinese tourists’ motivation for commercial sex when travelling overseas: Scale construction and validation

Sex and tourism has long been understudied. Little is known about tourists' motivations for consuming commercial sex while travelling, and even less, if indeed anything, is known about that of Chinese outbound tourists in particular. Based on twenty interviews and two surveys with a sample of 534 male Chinese tourists who had engaged in commercial sex when travelling overseas in the previous 12 months, this study aimed first to explore why male Chinese tourists travelled overseas and purchased commercial sex, and second to construct a comprehensive scale for measuring male tourists’ motivations for overseas commercial sex. With acceptable reliability and validity, the measurement scale yielded in this study consisted of eight motivation dimensions labelled as socialisation, relaxation and escape, travel-related novelty, sexual desire fulfillment/excitement seeking, sex-related learning, sexual mastery, social prestige, and business/pragmatic purpose. Both the theoretical and methodological implications related to the developed scale are also discussed.     

长江经济带人才集聚水平测度及时空演变研究——基于价值链视角

基于价值链视角，构建涵盖人才资源在区域空间层面集聚生成、地区配置、效能产出3个维度在内的区域人才集聚水平评价指标体系，采用专家咨询AHP-信息熵组合赋权法构建综合评价模型和耦合协调度模型，对2010—2018年长江经济带沿线省市人才集聚水平进行测度与时空演化特征分析。结果表明，就长江经济带整体而言，考察期内地区人才集聚水平总体呈现逐年上升态势，但仍处于低水平状态；沿线省市人才集聚水平差异显著，缩小趋势渐缓，整体呈现局部高水平、全局低效率的不利境况；各省市人才集聚水平关键维度的耦合协调度整体呈显著波动递增态势，但内部耦合协调度存在不平衡发展问题，影响地区人才集聚水平整体提升。为提升长江经济带人才集聚水平，推进沿线地区协调发展，需强化区域人才合作机制，采取差别化精准策略破解沿线地区人才集聚低水平、不协调的短板因素。     

Time,space and accounting at Nonantola Abbey (1350–1449)

Accounting historians have provided several accounts of monastic life and accounting's role in it, considering important settings such as Montecassino and San Pietro abbeys in Italy and Durham Cathedral Priory in England. Research has shown how their governance arrangements and common values enabled the Benedictines to manage their monasteries in an efficient manner which was essential in tackling the misappropriation of resources by organisational actors, including abbots. Other studies have shed light on the use of practical and effective accounting practices by the Benedictines to manage their considerable wealth and pursue their spiritual and temporal goals. Nevertheless, this body of literature is yet to explicitly consider the dimensions of time and space and their relationship with accounting practices. This study begins to address this oversight by analysing the surviving accounting records of the Benedictine abbey of Nonantola in northern Italy from 1350 to 1449. In the accounting books of Nonantola Abbey linear and cyclical conceptions of time coexisted and had an impact on the way in which transactions were reflected in the accounts. At the same time, the abbey was at the centre of a complex network of accountabilities which included lay accountants, farmers and the lessees of the abbey's properties. The main characteristic of this system was not the accuracy of the records in detailing the assets, liabilities, expenses and revenue of the abbey but the maintenance of a control system to administer an extensive agricultural network and the identification of the relationships between the abbey and the stakeholders inhabiting its space.     

基于组态视角的众创空间创客集聚机制研究

以江苏省383家众创空间为样本，应用组态思维和QCA方法整合资源与服务两个层面的6个条件，探讨形成众创空间创客集聚差异的多重并发和复杂机理。结果发现：①众创空间高创客集聚存在服务主导型、场地-创客教育主导型、全要素型3个组态，其中，服务主导型、场地-创客教育主导型能深层次、强有力地影响众创空间高创客集聚；②众创空间非高创客集聚存在单纯地产式、单纯线下投资促进、单纯线上投资促进3种组态，且对众创空间非高创客集聚的影响基本相当；③资金资源不充足、场地资源不充足与人员服务不充足在解释非高创客集聚时具有替代作用。     

科技服务业产出测算：指标确立、数据收集与未来预测

科技服务业产出测算是对科技服务业产出数据的统计与分析，加强科技服务业产出数据的规范统计和应用分析可为我国政府调整产业政策提供重要数据支撑。以科技服务业产出测算为研究对象，结合学者观点、国家标准及各级政府相关产业政策，提出将分支产业作为初始指标的横向统计思路，构建科技服务业产出测算指标体系。在数据收集方面，强调要做好“收”与“填”两个基本工作；在指标确立和数据收集基础上，进一步提出未来预测的两种方法，以此作为科技服务业产出数据预测的初步探索；提出应从统一数据统计标准、完善数据调查与公开制度、加强数据资源开发3个方面建立健全我国科技服务业产出数据测量与管理体制机制。     

经济开放与货币需求:国际金融风险及持币成本的测度

在中国开放经济体制下的基准货币需求模型中,本文将源于国际金融市场的持币成本设为遗漏潜变量,并构建特定的国际金融综合指数(CIFI)作为该潜变量的测度。借鉴机器学习与测度理论,本文利用对数误差修正模型提出了分步降维的CIFI构造算法,构造了长期CIFI和短期CIFI。结果表明,CIFI构造中的无监督降维步骤有助于减少高维金融数据中的冗余信息。实证分析发现,国际机会成本对中国货币需求具有规律性的前导影响,而在2007至2008年国际金融危机期间,央行的应急措施对长期CIFI所代表的非均衡冲击起到明显的阻截效果,对短期CIFI的影响基本是持续不变的。通过综合指数构造与宏观货币需求模型的算法连接,可以利用CIFI的构成结构从前导时间与影响强度两方面追踪冲击货币需求的国际金融风险的具体来源,这为宏观决策者监测国际金融市场提供了颇有规律的信息。在方法论上,本研究为如何利用模型监测国际金融市场影响宏观经济开辟了一条新路。