粤港澳大湾区创新生态系统内部耦合时空演化及空间收敛分析

在构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下，高效协同的区域创新体系有助于将粤港澳大湾区三地建设成为具有全球影响力的科技创新中心。通过构建创新生态系统综合评价指标体系，采用耦合协调模型和空间计量模型，实证检验大湾区10个城市2007-2019年创新生态系统内部耦合协调水平、时空跃迁特征以及收敛性。研究发现，大湾区整体及各城市耦合协调度呈上升趋势，基本实现从失调衰退区到协调过渡区的转化，具体可划分为4个等级层次；大湾区创新生态系统协调耦合度存在显著的绝对β与条件β收敛趋势，即最终收敛于同一稳态水平，且城市间差距逐渐缩小。其中，经济发展水平、对外交流水平、人力资本水平对创新生态系统协调耦合度起显著正向作用。     

Panel LM unit root tests with level and trend shifts

This paper considers a Lagrange multiplier (LM) based panel unit root test that allows for heterogeneous structural breaks in both the intercepts and slopes of a series. We note that many popular time series variables are likely to exhibit changing means and/or trends over time. Given that the usual tests will depend on the nuisance parameters indicating the locations of the trend breaks, we adopt a transformation procedure that makes our new panel unit root tests invariant to the nuisance parameters. To illustrate the importance of the power gain provided by our test, we examine the convergence hypothesis using relative ratios of per capita health care expenditures in 20 OECD countries. Our results provide evidence that the convergence hypothesis is supported.     

Growth and real business cycles in Vietnam and the Asean-5. Does the trend shock matter?

We examine Vietnam’s economy in comparison with its closest trade partners. We show that capital accumulation has been the primary growth engine since the start of its transition to the pro-market economy in 1986 – the Doi Moi. We also show that the cyclical behavior of its macro aggregates is similar to that of its ASEAN-5 peers and other developing countries. We extend the standard small open economy RBC model by considering habit persistence and government consumption, which allows a close match of the moments of the growth variables. At the business cycle frequency, transitory productivity shocks account for approximately one-half of Vietnam’s output variance, while country risk and non-transitory productivity shocks account to close to one-fifth each. Regarding the Solow residual’s volatility, we find that the trend component merely accounts for 12 % of this variance in Vietnam, while in Thailand it is only 6 %. These findings refute the “the cycle is the trend” hypothesis in Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) and align with the hypotheses in García-Cicco et al. (2010) and Rhee (2017), where the stationary component is overwhelmingly dominant. We claim that technological progress and productivity-enhancing measures are fundamental for Vietnam’s economy to sustain high growth.     

中国影子银行发展趋势与展望

在多角度界定影子银行的基础上,总结中国影子银行的主要特征,即处于初期发展阶段、杠杆率相对较低、主体独立性低、金融创新活跃地带。从欧美国家影子银行发展实践来看,中国影子银行是金融体制过渡性的产物,代表了未来金融创新的方向,其发展趋势主要包括：业务发展：由银行表外业务向资产证券化业务转变;运作模式：由＂一对一＂对接向＂多对多＂对接转变;融资结构：由非标债权融资向标准化债权融资转变;体系构成：由商业银行为主向非银行金融机构为主转变;监管动向：由机构监管向机构监管与功能监管相结合转变。     

我国环境领域技术处于怎样的水平

针对我国环境科技发展现状与重大需求，结合理论梳理，构建了技术评价理论解释模型。在此基础上，采取专家调查方式，重点与美国、日本、德国等主要发达国家进行对比，对环境领域9个子领域技术发展趋势、技术水平和发展阶段进行了评价。结果表明，我国环境领域与国际先进水平的差距正在逐渐缩小，虽有部分技术领先，但大部分还处于跟踪前沿状态，而且原创性技术较少、产业化程度较低，环境科技支撑国家生态文明建设和持续和谐发展任重而道远。     

Is it one break or ongoing permanent shocks that explains U.S. real GDP?

The relative importance of permanent versus cyclical shocks to GDP has been found to depend on the presence or absence of a single break in mean growth. We estimate unobserved components models conditional on a trend break having occurred in any specified quarter and use the Bayesian model averaging to combine the conditional estimates. We estimate a break occurred around 2006:1. Allowing for a break significantly reduces estimates of trend variance. However, enough spread remains in the posterior distribution to indicate that available data does not definitively settle the question of the relative importance of trend versus cycle.     

Lack of divine coincidence in New Keynesian models

The literature has long agreed that the divine coincidence holds in standard New Keynesian models: the monetary authority is able to simultaneously stabilize inflation and output gap in response to preference and technology shocks. I show that the divine coincidence holds only when inflation is stabilized at exactly zero. Even small deviations from zero generate policy trade-offs. I demonstrate this result using the model׳s non-linear equilibrium conditions to avoid biases from log-linearization. When the model is log-linearized, a non-zero steady state level of inflation gives rise to what I call the endogenous trend inflation cost-push shock in the New -Keynesian Phillips curve.     

美国对华直接投资发展的实证研究及趋势分析

美国对华直接投资的发展,经历了不同的阶段,在不同时期表现出不同的特征。本文以20世纪80年代以来我国吸收美国直接投资的基本资料为线索,详细考察了美国对华直接投资的总量变化、结构特征、经济效应及投资动因。在此基础上,结合经济全球化背景下美国的经济发展环境,探讨了美国对华直接投资的发展趋势。     

跨国公司在华直接投资独资化研究

从我国利用外商直接投资的实践来看,跨国公司正在不断加强对我国市场的投资,值得注意的是,其进入我国市场的方式正在发生变化,更多的公司采取独资或追加已有投资的方式提高其股权比例。现在独资公司已经成为跨国公司在华直接投资的一种主导形式。跨国公司独资化对我国的影响如何,应采取那些应对措施,对这个问题进行研究有利于我国更好地利用外资。     

海峡两岸经济发展与经贸合作趋势

祖国大陆具有发展劳动力密集型产业的比较优势,其经济发展会促进周边地区的产业结构向资本与技术密集型转变,提高包括台湾地区在内的整个东亚地区的贸易增长潜力。祖国大陆将成为台湾地区产业转移的首选地。台湾地区经济可能保持较长时期的高速增长,条件之一是推进海峡两岸经贸交流与合作,利用祖国大陆丰富的劳动力资源和巨大的市场。